Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 04 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2016
ISSUED 16:13 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016
ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across British Isles/France on Monday, while sharpening and extending down to Iberia. The associated cold mid-levels combined with diurnal heating will generate 300-400 Jkg-1 CAPE, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing, particularly focussed along convergence zones (one such notable feature likely along the length of the southwest peninsula, this whole line drifting slowly eastwards with time). Hence some parts within the broad low-end SLGT may stay completely shower-free, while others may experience shower-training and multiple heavy downpours.
Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cells, and perhaps some local surface water issues given locally prolonged downpours.