Badgers01

It is strange insular world we all inhabit on here as prosumers of the weather models output - seems a lot of professional broadcasters / meteos seem hardly fussed !

Starting to wobble a bit in the mad thread high pressure blowing up too much would still keep us cold and if it was clear high potentially amazing blue skies and harsh frost at night and a bit springlike day time ..? Could be worse ..?

It’s been horrible last 2 days hasn’t it - dry cold is the best thing for rheumatoid type pain can’t wait for the lower dew points and dry cracking air - might start seeing signs of it by end of today ..??

I think now I am looking for upgrades in timing , the uppers repeatedly shown are pretty much as low as can be theoretically possible. If the models are still struggling they might be underestimating the propagation of the wind reversal - so would like to see the initial surface cold and caa coming quicker than modelled and get a nudge to get here by Friday. Here’s hoping , interestingly here in Surrey surface winds keep trying to veer NE and it’s seems to be drying up from the east.

Well regardless of whatever we wish happens the weather will do what it will do !!

It states info provided by METEO Group so yes

I know it’s just one run but this is not what we want too see - we were meant to be in a super chilled polar continent flow not warming uppers

If I recall correctly they briefly touched -17c for a short while in the Jan 87 event which I believe was the coldest day time maxima in southern England for 250 years

But also with human input ?

Thank you for that - I am pretty sure a cold spring is now highly likely whether we get the winter cold or not...

I am curious as to whether this warming is the final warming , will the pv reform or is it simply too late now ... of course when they do happen earlier we often have had memorable cold spells . It is a reminder also that when Catacol says its a shame it’s not the 1st Jan nothing is to be taken for granted....!

Interesting to me at least that even contributors whom we probs all hold in high esteem are flagging up the fact the clock is ticking if we are going to get anything interesting from this !!

It’s not Great , Lake effect snow across east coast of Italy again I imagine ...

Yup what he said !! It’s been the winter of cold rain if you live lowland southern England - would love some snow but thinking it might be time to call it a day ....? Model fatigue is common by middle of Feb I guess ...?

There are routes for every which way it really is incredibly scattered - based on that run I don’t know how we can feel confident that winter is coming ....?

The spread on those is surely very disheartening to coldies this early evening.

Fair enough we shall see , I imagine that would be as low as theoretically possible ...

The uppers were around -16 for southern England during the peak of that event, not any output yet showing them that low.

Getting a Uk high to move north and trigger a cold spell is exceptionally rare ? When did this lady happen I am struggling to think of an occasion.

Well good luck with that - it’s 5.3 c Dp of 2c and a blustery swesterly wind here in Surrey not sure it will be snowing by the afternoon !!??

A nice clear UK high can be good this time of year harsh frosts at night and sunny days...

5.4c with a DP of 0c here in Cobham Surrey - have to say it felt like spring walking across Esher Common birds singing lots of gardeners out tidying up etc .

Heavy hail shower in Esher the whitest the pavements have been all winter ... not bad for a NW wind down here.

I agree , I remain ambitious that we can get something a lot more memorable than that poor excuse of an easterly this month!! Judging by the MOD thread though this might not be so !!!

No offence taken- but to compare 62/63 with Feb 2005 is very strange. In 2005 we had snow falling over many days in Berkshire it never settled was never really cold - looked ok on paper but was not a memorable event I don’t recall any disruption ice etc - you can go on about mouth watering Synoptics but if it doesn’t deliver not really sure what the point is - we often get great Synoptics in spring and we all sigh if only it was February- well on that occasion it was Feb and it was a poor return for those Synoptics !