[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

17 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep there usually is cold weather / snow in Feb and March these days . I think your theory about the PV getting its self together later on in the season is right . It used to ramp up late November and through December . The last few years it’s not got it act together until late December and it stays strong for 6 to 8 weeks so we have no chance of blocking in the write places in mid winter . So we’re left with feb and March. Things don’t last forever tho and it will change but that could be 2 years or 10years . One thing is for sure next November I won’t be getting excited about all the blocky charts and no PV for it all to be chucked out the window when the pv ramps up in late December like it has done the last few years .

By that theory in 10 years time it won't have time to get itself together at all before it starts it's final warming. 

We can all dream ey

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not often it has to be done in here, but a bunch of posts have been hidden as they have nothing to do with the moans/banter/chat.

Please define chat then? 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

8 minutes ago, Shuttler said:

QBO has just transitioned into the easterly phase (at 30hPa). Looking back at analogue years, coupled with low solar, when that happened - 4 in total. 50% of these saw a split SSW in the March which brought resulting cold in Apr (and May), the other 50% failed to register a SSW at all. In most of the low solar years we've seen a split SSW event the QBO transitioned well before the winter i.e. at least the summer before. So by the winter we were firmly entrenched in that phase. It's looking less likely we'll get a split SSW in time to bring the sig cold this winter season (i.e. beast from the east type stuff) but perhaps for part of the spring, though of course less significance for markets, etc. Otherwise we remain at the mercy of low Arctic sea ice driven patterns, and as per most winters since 2010 outside of split SSW events. As some have alluded to on here, I think we may have a greater chance of split SSW induced cold next winter providing QBO remains E'ly. 

Good Post.

The only thing I would point out is that sea ice is better than what we had in 2010,2012,2013,2015,2016,2017 and 2018 .

There are only two years in the last decade that have had better sea ice growth as of the 25th of December.

One of those is 2014 … and we all know how that winter turned out !



 

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20]

8 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Morning all..

A busy day for me yesterday.... 275 miles and Xmas diner and games of Cluedo, Perudo, and Dirty Gert!

US NIC this morning...

No real changes in snow cover.  We desperately  need some snow fall into Europe now.

Sea Ices continues to grow, now in 9th position in JAXA  and more increases today.

 

I think that we can now say that the Bering Straits are 'closed'.

MIA

Hello MIA do you have a link for the Jaxa reports? 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

17 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

If the trop vortex follows these purples we're screwed , southwesterlies until spring 

Nope that's definetly not how it works 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Its a resilient block though with heights up to 1045mb the atlantic could struggle to break through I feel here, we might see some trough disruption squeezing down from the NW, with heights advecting back westwards.. 

Yes here she goes... 

Be surprised if it dosent head for Greenland now.. (all academic at this range of course) 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Northern arm a bit strong on this run although good to see signs of the cold making it quite far West - good signs for further into Jan.

252 low skirting around the bottom of the pv in the atlantic... 

May go under 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

So far this winter we have had a meandering southerly tracking jet.. 

As soon as we get a scandi block it switches to a powerful northern arm, you couldn't make it up

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run looks to bring ridging up from the SW but that could be a precursor as to what could happen down the line.

Quite a few build a scandi high...

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

IT does sound very much more like it is based upon something like yesterdays ECM output. Often I have noticed the forecast seem to be based upon older output. When see the models flip here to mild from cold say 5/6 days out the overnight forecast is often still talking of cold and snow until the next day.

I hope you are right though, something to hold on to other scanning deep FI once more.

Yes i agree often always a day behind in my opinion. 

Poor charts from where we were yesterday as they say another one bites the dust. 

That's not to say it won't be chilly with snow/hail rain showers but not to the extend of yesterday. 

ECM is becoming poorer as the years go on for me not as reliable as it used to be. Time for an upgrade? 

Winter 1 - Me - 0. 

Onto the next one I'll be here till March. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Gets there for about a day we need the amplified option early on are this turns into toppler.

Definetly.. 

We wait and see. 

The only thing I would say is the GFS has a habit as we all know of blowing up the lows.. If that low remains shallow we get a better slider and a better ridge. 

If not we go again for the next chance

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Working a night shift tonight....

GFS halfway to UKMO

Yes hopefully trends the other way in the morning.. Still gets there in the end... Twitchy twitchy time.. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

All hypothetical at that range but at 240hrs I don't see the pattern collapsing, there's to much troughing and cold air into Europe. 

The next low would just slide with an already meandering jet displaced further south. 

 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

Even at 312 there's only one way that low is going slideeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[Model output discussion - late November]

Zonal train full steam ahead 8-)

Its the same old story as so far this autumn/winter...

The models wanting to revert to a standard set up but it has to be the solar activity causing small areas of higher pressure to our north and pushing the jet stream further south.

awesome chart for the 10th December

[Model output discussion - late November]

Much more evident at 126 … Ridging further west and north

[Model output discussion - late November]

Even at this early stage id say slightly better ridging at 114 and better heights assimilating ??

[Model output discussion - late November]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run also goes for the biblical storm scenario at T264:

...air cold enough for some surprises there too, as we watch the election results come in on the television. 

That's the 12z... 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - late November]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Here comes the trough disruption

 

Nothing like to throw the models and this forum into choas due to a little trough disruption!

For all the talk of 'zonal' it's the same old story of the last few months as the time ticks down to t+0 little wedges of heights appearing and bowling ball lows a lot less round than we've become accustomed too? 

How long can it last? 

[Climate Questions]

Is there a thread for people who aren't sure about 'climate change'? 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Can anyone enlighten me? There's a chap on twitter constantly posting PV related tweets (@PvForecast), accompanied by cryptic comments but no real analysis or explanation. It's all a little confusing...

 

Shows easterly winds right from the trop into the strat as dipicted by the blue colours 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A raging vortex with little interference at a rough guess.

If that was the case doubt they'd have worded the end of the extended forecast like that 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

1 hour ago, BelgiumKiwi said:

After contacting her, she talked about a glitch in there system, but today it's back and working 

When I click on the picture I get a different chart as to when I'm viewing it Normal without expanding it. One shows the mean going for a SSW the other the mean bottoming out around 10m/s?? 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

Can't be far away on this chart surely? 

[The Hunt For Cold Model Thread - Should It Return?]

Yes to the winter thread at least then I won't get shot down for chasing 384 hr snowmageddon charts and I can till my hearts content with my fellow snowfanatics.