ALL ABOARD
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Posts posted by ALL ABOARD
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Icon is trying it's best slightly more amplified with the Atlantic ridge at +96
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Have we had a SSW?
What a pattern to start winter with.
One run and not to be taken in isolation.
Hopefully these charts can continue.
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216 here comes the next one.
Heights building towards Iceland.
You can see the low disrupting already.
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The old saying wedges make sledges looks like it may be making a December special soon.
06z is a good example of how small pockets of heights across Iceland can allow sliders.
Slack airflow and heavy percipation and you cant rule out a snowflake falling anywhere.
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GFS better at 114 with the ridge.
Up she goes??
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Theoretically speaking..
The longer the strat vortex remains at record strength.. The more cold is bottled up over the artic.. Allows more ice to refreeze for longer?
Its a shame we can't access data from the last ice age to see wether a well organised strat actually increases sea ice growth and thus bigger freezes.
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12z GFS at 144.... No low and uppers look to be slightly lower.....
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Massive shift post 240 with regards to the PV reforming as per GFS 12z.
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How much elevation we thinking that we're going need for these incoming northwesterlies??
Cant remember ever getting a snow shower from one but I'm only a young un.
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If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this..
Have I travelled back in time to december??
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13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The UKMO now the flattest solution after being one of the most amplified before .
The wheels came off as early as T72 hrs upstream with the more offshore and weaker ne USA low .
In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t going to be a game changer as we are talking about really just an extra day of colder conditions before the high sinks .
The winter season if we can call it that has been one of any decent amplification shown even at day 6 range not managing to verify .
Overall after this colder blip or snap depending on which model is correct the outlook is dismal for cold .
Normally the PV weakens as you head into February but this one looks like it’s just downed a bottle of steroids !
I should add I’d be very dubious of any colder PM flows shown at longer range with a raging PV . This is a model bias especially of the GFS when nearer the time the jet will be corrected further north .
Unless we see a big change in the PV then the output past day 6 is to be blunt utter crap for cold !
Absoluetly insane nick.
Not to say it will come off mind you, but flicking through the GFS the PV is a monster.
Low solar activity and above average sea ice the main factors ?
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Yes it's truly remarkable that even when we have the big 3 on board at a reasonable timescale it still goes tits up.
Horrible winter with the jet once again riding over the top...
The long wait for a decent ridge bypasses us again.
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
WOnder if this is a QTR - anyhow - if we could get to here we would be staring down the barrel of a severely cold late winter / Early spring.
Few more frames and we'd be looking at a split too.
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Is there anyway you can compare the noaa ice and snow cover charts from this year compared to years from 2000's?
Just want to see the difference visually as opposed to the graphs posted by MIA
MIA great post BTW, love coming on here to read them.
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Game on?
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11 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Maybe, but it isnt 7 years ago. Short memories and all that
Wasn't quite the battleground I was referring to.
Yes indeed a good spell that occurred due to the SSW, but even then the low pressure migrated north through France. As appose to sliding against an already in situ block.
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Ready to start chasing some warmth now..
Its been an abismal winter apart from the suprise snowfall I had back in November.
Were going through a period where northern blocking is becoming harder and harder to establish..
I can't remember the last time we had a proper battleground scenario, its been to long.
Low solar activity affecting our weather is another one off the list of positives in regards to promoting colder UK weather.
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22 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Thanks Aleman
I was thinking in terms of the normal ongoing flow thru the Fram… but yes, occasionally there are 'backups'. However the principle is that the more ice there is in Greenland Sea, the quicker will the ice melt.
Its 3 days now since my last Masie update …. so here goes
An ice gain over 197K Km2 in the last 3 days (Up to 13,700K Km2 in total today).This is up to 8th lowest extent in the record and is 100K Km2 above the average for the 2010's, and making progress towards average for the 2000's.
The latest increase was made up from daily changes in Barents(+35K), Greenland(+23K), Baffin(+47K), Central(+7K) and SOO(+55K), and each day added (+49K, +108K and +40K) whereas the average for his time of year is about 35K km2 …....
A continued reduction in Bering (-20K) was ended today with a (+7K) increase. This reduction has taken place over the last 12 days and has resulted in a total reduction of 120K.
Also that Baffin is being increased /improved by the colder air (reported on the sister photo thread to this), that is affecting the Labrador area. The ice has finally moved into the Labrador Sea, and is extending around the coast into Baffin itself.
Temperatures are expected to fall over the next few days in the Arctic Basin, but Ice extent formation is now dependent on the wind directions in the outer sea areas for the remaining future ice gains. The colder air in the basin is needed to thicken up the ice there.
For information Global Sea Ice is now rapidly also moving up through the tables to 6th lowest after (rather like the Arctic), as it too appeared likely to be in the lowest categories. The Antarctic is also now gaining against previous years as it nears its summer minimum.
MIA
Great Post MIA
Can we have the data in a table graph so I can nose at please.
Kind regards
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Imagine how frustrating it would be that even with all our limited understanding there could be a driver out there that we have not yet discovered.
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Well my comment last night about small steps has gone the wrong way..
We just can't seem to get the heights to play ball and this has been a recurring theme for a while now.
I can't remember when we last saw a decent undercut from a cold high already in situ or a northerly.
Even 2018 with the split the low still didn't undercut and actually headed north towards the UK from iberia.
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Could well be some thundersnow .
Warmish sea , the source of the air and depth of cold should see some very lively snow showers .
Great fun !
By the end though you'd be able to probably walk to Iceland from Scotland
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Slow and steady..
I always prefer when you have subtle upgrades on a run to run basis.
Wild flips never rarely come off..
Of course tomorrow the pattern may shift the other way but as someone else has posted above me, the most interesting part is that each run is moving towards the high moving west then towards Greenland as the lower heights drain east with the main PV chunk.
Interesting times ahead and if we can get enough amplitude of that high we could all probably accept the last two months for the final outcome.
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Here she comes and about bloody time.
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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Some times you just get a feeling that we may get lucky.
288-294
High pressure grows on its own with no help from any evident WAA.
Reinforces that were going to be prone to blocking early this winter.