[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

5 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

A very rash remark indeed for the reasons I have just posted. I would say it's 60:40 we will indeed have a toppling high.

Very interesting... 

Is this just a hunch or are you seeing models that we don't have access too? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

For balance here's the GFSP at 162

Not to dissimilar in the broad scale of things. 

Both will retorgoress towards Greenland with a trough dropping through scandi bringing much colder uppers. 

[Model tweets]

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Greens from the south or blues from the east both heading towards us.. who get there 1st

All academic at this range but watch that low drop down through scandi. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

Simply stunning. 

Atlantic low disrupting. 

Cold building in situ. 

Main meal to come... 

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

Big changes on the icon.. 

 

I think the models have had thier 'return to climatology day'. 

There's only one way that high is going from there. 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

Laughable... 

Big snow event incoming. 

Cant take it seriously when it changes this much in 6 hours though. 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

Huge difference 

GFS climbing towards the euro as early as 120. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep sorry,i did download the latest but it came up with that,strange

here it is from the 24th.

 

Some extreme reversals on there getting towards - 30m/s 

Also the mean seems to be dropping below the - 5 mark. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

That GFSP near split, perhaps becoming a split, looks a decent end result for the U.K. - if it happens....

It splits let me tell you

Just strange to see them so far apart.

Perfect

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

GFS and GFSP 

 

Poles apart? 

 

You would think the GFSP would have a better handle being the newer model? 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

Yes 144 much better... 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

Absolute madness of a chart to start the new year. 

Slack pressure

Surface cold

Cold pool building in situ  

Blocked off Atlantic

All ABOARD the cold train. 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Actually.. I agree. I thought as much when I had submitted the post glad I'm not alone to have that thought.  Merry Christmas 

You too

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

They have in essence now  dropped the mild references..it's a great update.  Now we make the next move towards removing the no sign of exceptional remarks

For them to even reference it is a start though

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Updated last night.... 

 

Cold Jan is on.. 

Cold or rather cold conditions are generally likely to continue during this period, with a risk of wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be settled for parts of the north, and also in western areas. There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover. As we approach the end of the month, it is likely that colder-than-average conditions will generally persist through the country, rather than mild, wet and windy weather. However, it is possible for some areas to see milder spells.

There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover.

This bit is very interesting? Who said there was

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I will take the -30 option please.

What about the negative 29?

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

How beautiful. 

What a great mean. 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

Please santa I've been a really good boy this year. 

Please give me a blizzard for all  

On a more serious note, I've lost count of the amount of charts that are just showing a rinse and repeat cold pattern. 

I think we had one GFS that went rogue?

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

These are the best charts you can dream of during winter. 

A hight that becomes cut off and just meanders around between Greenland, Iceland and the atlantic. 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

The wind issue is an interesting one.. 

Initally, as is modeled at the moment there would be some strong winds. But as the low moves slightly south the majority of the UK is left under a very slack flow, low heights and heavy percipation that may cause evaporate cooling. 

Its a now cast situation for sure. 

 

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

This run is a perfect example of the GFS latching onto a background signal running with it.... 

And then realising there's no strength in the jet to move the block.

The Atlantic is dead. 

Long live the cold. 

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Big change at D10 on this run. Much flatter upstream...lost the amplification. Could possibly end with Atlantic HP pushed SE with the jet over the top.

Not on this one crewe... 

To much low pressure under the block and not enough forcing from the jet.

Cut off heights around griceland maybe... 

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

2 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

I can’t really understand the charts, there are no guides to what are the lines, whats the colours, is yellow good? Purple? Which one and when.  Nowhere can you find the info to learn.  
 

however, since pretty much November, the entire trend has been cold.  Consistently. That tells you all that you need to know 
 

 

Hi, 

In simple and as a starting point. 

Yellows-reds high pressure 

Blues-purples low pressure 

Tighter the lines together (isobars) windier it is.