[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

If and it's a big if, as nothing is guaranteed in the weather, you get this amount of cold into Europe 

You'd need a strong jet to shift it, otherwise what does come across the Atlantic given the state of the atmosphere would just bump into it produce snow and then slide away into Europe. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

The high pressure over South West Europe just doesn't want to quit, it stops the cold air coming South 

This is untrue. 

When you get to a pattern like this..

 

Them heights will dissappear as quickly as the snow I had last week. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That low near the Azores needs watching . You don’t want that phasing with the shortwave moving se .

A better gap between both would increase chances .

I watched it thinking awh gosh... 

But by the time it gets here it's such a shallow feature it does not matter when the beast has already decided its heading this way. 

Could be one of them rare occasions that it can try and try and try but the house will fill with snow

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent GEFS...

UKMO leaves a bit of a sour taste, that has the hallmarks of an Atlantic high with energy going over the top moving forward, IMO..

We are fast approaching that crucial 120-168 timeframe now ...

I don't see that tbh.. 

Not with that new area of heights of the eastern seaboard at 144. 

Can only see it linking with the azores high and a push towards Greenland. 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

All academic of course.. 

But - 20 uppers passing over a relatively warm North sea? 

Sea affect snow to rival the Great lakes of America. 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Lock it in.... 

Would be historic. 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Which is normally a bad thing when we want cold!

Although this idea has merit... 

Steeper gradient of warm meeting cold air can lead to greater cyclogenesis.. 

However. 

It often means there is enough PV left there.. 

1. To prevent West based NAO 

2.To allow depressions to cross the Atlantic allowing frontal snow. 

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

41 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I do smile at the comments from some folk, it is after all so easy to write a weather forecast.

Tag me next time John. 

Nothing to do with the forecasting, it's the contradictory sentences that have no flow. 

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

I don't know why I bother looking at these anymore. 

I'd honestly be shocked if a professional meterologist is writing that. 

There is no flow to the sentences and it's almost like they write a sentence and then add a bit after it whilst glancing back at the charts. 

 

Drier conditions following later in the week but with a chance of further spells of rain arriving from the west.

So umm not drier then? 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Would be one for the history books!!!

It would continue to line them up as well... Next one incoming haha. 

Blizzards galore. 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Para for the last few runs delivering blizzards to the south... 

Trend? 

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

The mean is getting better with each suite. 

240h

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

This is how you get a prolonged bitter spell. 

Low begins to cross the Atlantic, heights remain of Greenland and you get a new build of high pressure behind the low reinforcing the heights. 

All academic. 

But on this run... 

Very cold.. Blizzard.. Repeat. 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Better get some cover for the pipes... 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Well the warm up lasted long... 

I make it just over 48 hours?

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Ello skipper... 

Another scenario.. 

Scandi high, cold funnelled this way, and by cold I mean decently cold. 

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

1 minute ago, ianmm94 said:

Seems to be a recurring theme of this winter where we can't seem to tap into colder air, I know it's a long way off still

On this chart the Atlantic is cut off.. 

Its snow for everyone even on the coast.. Biting wind and where snow falls you'd get some very low min temps. 

Plus as the flow evolves colder uppers would advocate this way. 

 

We don't live in siberia....

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Almost back in a cold northerly by +96. 

I'd take any output past 4 days with a massive pinch of salt. 

4 days mind... Not often I say that. 

 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Your latest zonal installment... 

Almost a 15 day reversal going by the mean? Could be even longer..... 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

3 hours ago, Interitus said:

Are they getting closer though? When consistently seeing peak warmings at 10 days or beyond they have a tendency to stay there, the strength of them doesn't matter so much.

Do they? 

GFS picked this SSW at 384 hours.... 

And was first not to model a full split. 

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Huge difference at 114??

 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

25 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Hopefully will have time to have a good look at all the strat runs tomorrow and work out where we are heading. Initial thoughts are for another wave 1 warming. With the strat vortex already weakened and trying to recover, this is not a bad thing for the continuance of winter. Anyone who suggests that the trop vortex is likely to recover and regain strength are standing on thin ice.

Best wait til it thickens.  Last third of Jan looks very promising. We have already had a synoptic wish list ticked off this winter, but without the expected linked T850’s. Luckily we still have time for that to change with the strat pv heading for another kicking.

Madness with the GFS now counting down on a third warming and this one looks substantial again... 

Very rare occurrence?? 

 

GFS and GFSP 

 

 

 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

Not another one...  

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

If at first you don't succeed 

 

Try 

 

Try 

 

Try again? 

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit of egg on my face ... just checked 2013 and oops ... the ECM mean had a westerly at D10 my memory not as good as I thought.

but you can see the mean was sniffing in towards a Scandi High in the days after.

Think I'm right that the ECM mean settled on this particular easterly right now quite early on?

I guess the ECM mean today has been sniffing a north Atlantic high at D10. It overwhelming gets sniffed out in the days that follow. But look at 2013 archieves and yes, it gives hope to any modelled outcome at mid-range for a turnaround

Maybe the ECM isn't great at modelling post SSW.. 

Obv there are exceptions to the rule but two operational at day ten that the GFS has modelled better..