ALL ABOARD
-
Posts
537 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by ALL ABOARD
-
-
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
No beast as we move forward but this is a cold old setup - am I right in thinking this would lead to some very severe frosts in any clear spells - stagnant continental air???
Yes some very low minima in there.
Subsequently the strat is heating up in this run.
The 6z could finish with another Greenland push as that low skirts through and the Atlantic ridge reamplifies.
-
Not quite going to make it on this run as the secondary high pressure around Russia deflects the cold from reaching us.
All very positive moving forward though.
-
1
-
-
Houston we have lift off?
-
7
-
-
23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
UKMO isn’t a particularly great model imo which is sad as it is one of our best at our disposal, I think over the years it’s reputation has gone down, I remember in winters gone and it was a leading model, but now we don’t see that often when it has different ideas often ends up giving in. It requires an upgrade, have you seen how erratic it has been at day 5-6? Thank god we don’t see it go further. And yes, I know people like to share UKMO is second best performing model but if you focused on Europe I bet GFS at day 5-6 would be very close.
Totally agree last few years it's gone against both GFS and ECM consistently at 144 and more often than not had to climb down.
I also feel it chops and changes every run even within the 144 timescale.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, fellmike said:
Not made up but unlikely to happen.
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, fellmike said:
Everone keeps mentioning "f1" What is it?
Fantasy Island.
-
Is cold that grows in situ likely to be harder to shift than cold carried in by winds?
Usually when we have a high pressure system over scandi we have a wrap around of cold air that feeds along the isobars towards the UK.
If Europe develops its own cold pool due to the omnipresent high pressure would that mean the air is denser and harder to shift?
-
2
-
-
Is that a mid Atlantic UK scandi Russian high I see?
Huge area of high pressure.
Getting toasty up top too.
-
3
-
-
3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:
Almost an Easterly there?
Yes..
Theoretically going forward that low out west in the Atlantic would stall against the block and head towards Greenland allowing the heights in the Atlantic to ridge into scandi to join forces with the Russian high.
Blocking unite!
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
46 looks ok out to Xmas - low heights to our south survive till around 20th and then it becomes average (perhaps no strong signal) - all the while the high heights to our ne continue
as we approach new year the euro heights increase and it becomes meh -
Icon starting to build heights towards scandi on 18z
-
3
-
-
7 minutes ago, jules216 said:
Despite this is not an Atlantic onslaught by any means where are we going to get the trigger low that would bring any meaningful uppers? Even in past undercut scenarios the diving low pressure had to eventually interact with one to the east or northeast. There in non available anywhere within few 1000kms.
Yes given this chart at face value it wouldn't be viable.
Just going forward hopefully the Russian high becomes cut off and we then see the wrap around required.
Could take a few days (weeks with how far the cold is north)
Or fingers crossed it moves to scandi then onwards to griceland and we get an Atlantic low skirting over the top and dropping down towards scandi introducing the cold air.
All very hypothetical, but nice to see the Atlantic continue to be disrupted.
-
1
-
-
Here's the mean of the GFS 6z at 192.
Can see the Russian high beginning to flex towards scandi
Low pressure on a southerly tracking jet
And we maintain low anomalies across Europe.
Scandi high with sliders anyone?
-
7
-
-
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
It is definitely nice to see some wintery conditions out and about, higher ground anywhere in the U.K. looking more favourable due to the lack of any real continental cold - nice to see some positive news from the METO ref a more prolonged colder outlook, and let’s hope the charts flip to Show some more northern blocking so some proper cold heads to the U.K. - the NAO and AO are pointing that way.
Yes subsequently the majority of the GFS ensembles go for a scandi block by 192.
-
2
-
-
Yes bit of a mehhhh pattern after all the excitement this morning.
Hopefully we can see a flip back this afternoon.
What' strikes me is the inability of the atmosphere to promote high latitude blocking over the last couple of years. Even when it looks like the only possible way, it is scuppered.
Normally it's a shortwave calamity but this time it's a combination of shortwaves and that Huge Russian high causing a back up of Atlantic lows that then have no option to meander about and find ways of merging.
The chase for an illusive Greenland high is now in its tenth year.
-
3
-
-
Great place to be in heading into the start of winter.
Normall all them lows would have phased and we would be staring down the barrel of a storm.
-
2
-
-
If that's a West based nao then I want in
On a more serious note, a West based NAO cannot be achieved due to the remaining low heights and low pressure still located over Greenland?
I may be wrong though.
-
4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.
We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.
As a very small Chinese man once said
"Patience Daniel son"
Cold wrap around coming at 306.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
@mods - perhaps time to split the thread and have one for cold searching - we had one called the hunt for cold a few years back which seemed to work.
Just feels like a battle in here between those looking for cold and those who just revert to "I told you so" posts.
100 percent agree.
Although I did post in the early winter discussion thread how snowfall can never be 100% accurately focused, dosent matter who you are.
6z slightly better in terms of heights around Iceland.
-
He literally just means the icon has stopped coming out
-
1
-
1
-
-
Here is a prime example of cold uppers not being the everything.
14th November 2019 at 108 asl South Wales
Predicted pattern
What transpired.
Nobody had even mentioned the word snow. And I for one for all my years of lurking in these threads didn't even have a scooby it was coming.
-
Dayummmm few days short.
What a spectacular run though.
-
2
-
-
13 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:
Deep into FI now over a cold 18z.
But the Atlantic ridge is going north again.
With that huge scandi high in place can we see a Greenland high just before the end?
Here she comes??
-
Deep into FI now over a cold 18z.
But the Atlantic ridge is going north again.
With that huge scandi high in place can we see a Greenland high just before the end?
-
2
-
-
Game over for the Atlantic at 192...
-
4
-
1
-
.png.4929b230e1f05089a2e749b1d2585d44.png)
Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A glitch but I actually love this view?
Puts everything we all love into perspective.
Seeing our beautiful planet doing its thing.
Looks like we're viewing from space.