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ALL ABOARD

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Posts posted by ALL ABOARD

    Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Easterlies are normally led by the operational runs . The ensembles only move on mass nearer the time .

    Thats my experience from that type of set up. The lower resolution ensembles often find problems with plotting the associated cut back sw of the jet into the Low Countries .

    This will also be more of an issue for the GFS as its past performance with easterlies tends to be last to that jet cutback .

    Also once any easterly if it does count down when this comes into the day 6 range the UKMO needs to be onside .

    That in the past has dealt the fatal blow to an easterly .

    It’s encouraging to see some better solutions showing up , the ECM op though does need a bit more amplitude day 9 and 10 but it’s a start .

    Lets hope this can evolve even more favourably over the next few days.

    With that likely deep cold pool setting up to the east and ne , it looks tantalizing and might finally allow me to give a green light to my crunchy snow and ice day alert system if things could fall nicely ! 

    Not in 2013 nick according to snowmans brilliant post above. 

    Anyone want to do a 2018 ten day and 5 day? 

     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Right, time for my most sobering report on the ECM individual ensembles to date 

    I looked through all 51 ensembles for T360, and there was next to nothing wintry. Either a line of lows through the Atlantic aimed at the UK, or a line of high pressure from the Azores through southern Europe keeping us in westerlies. 

    Just a few breakaway north Atlantic highs but not particularly impressive attempts.

    Has the SSW actually broke winter, or was this coming anyway? Or will we get a massive surprise?

     

     

    Maybe the clusters are a day behind and haven't factored in the SSW reversal yet....

    • Like 2

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

    So SSW wants to force northern blocking but the moderate El Nina a very positive NAO, result is they cancel each other out and we are left with mid latitude highs. Oh, a bit like the current model output!  

    How typical that a fantastic SSW is scuppered by the damn El Nina.

    Surely it wasn't as this hard in the 60's.

    Andy

    I'm not sure anyone can answer the question as to which way it will go.. 

    I'd be more Inclined to think the SSW will win but who knows. 

    I have a theory that lanina produces a warmer second period to winter but it could be the case that this only occurs when we have a strong SPV and TPV.. 

    This year we have neither. 

     

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Give it a few runs to see some continuity - the 00z run later on looks very mobile in the mid/upper strat. Last couple  gfs runs have actually pretty much removed the reverse flow right across the strat later on. (Away from the tropics of course) 

    Was looking promising for a long reversal and another warming for a split.. 

    Wonder what's driving the rapid recovery. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ALL ABOARD

    The cold building out east is remarkable... 

    Hopefully the blocking falls favourable from us as you can see the decline in the ural blocking and the mega cold feeding down. 

    The UK would be in the freezer for a substantial amount of time. 

    ECM overall is bit mehhh if your looking for wintry nirvana.. But if your looking at it from a chart in January then it's amazing as we should be seeing a rampant jet and temps into the low teens. 

     

    ECH1-240.thumb.gif.489acca1279bae13147ef6cb477ea02d.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.e0b5b7b21e5cea3d4a2f1dde2363687c.gif

     

    • Like 7

    Model tweets

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Can we start a petition to get Marco commenting on here. 

    He's really engaging on twitter, take tonight as an example. 

    Answering almost everyone's questions.. 

    Screenshot_20210101_203640_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.6c36930b88e8fc4aa90d793572ecd30c.jpg

     

    Exeter clearly seeing the chance of somthing significant? 

    • Like 3
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