[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Radar looks a bit suss over Ireland already... 

I'll be in the early hour gang.. 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Really? We've seen individual charts like that since the start of Winter that have failed to materialise. 

I'll wait until it's inside day 7 before getting excited.

Missing my point completely... 

I'm not in anyway saying its going to happen.. 

I'm merely pointing out that on that specific run you don't go from the initial pattern to the secondary pattern in 50 hours unless it's detecting a major pattern change. 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

You don't just go from this 

 

To this 

Unless its picking up on a major downwelling wave or the combination of the weak strat and the MJO on the move? 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

How do see the next round of games including? 

I don't Unfortunetly. 

There is to much variation and small changes in the near term to take anything over 4 days with a pinch of salt. 

The broadscale pattern for next week atm.. 

Low pressure towards the NE of the UK, bringing increasingly colder air from the NW... 

Rain to start but Increasing chance of snow showers for North and West UK. 

Beyond that? Lottery numbers for tonight please... 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

144 on GFS and UKMO and the chase is back on. 

Cold pool developing to the north being, sliders and a new attempt at Atlantic riding. 

Let the games begin. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Signs at 216 over the siberian vortex trying to head back west again. 

I still think that extra warming could have flushed down some additional westerlies just at the wrong time. 

Hopefully we see the atlantic lows slow down and the vortex back on the move to us.. 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

14 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

According to Met Office 10 day trend (Alex Deacon) the SSW has happened but it didn't result in a reversal, just a weakening of the polar vortex.

They expect the weakening to continue into next week.

So, presumably, that means that cold arctic air is less likely to flood into lower latitudes?

I seen it, but not sure what he meant. 

At 60n the winds have reversed twice, once from the initial warming and the second time from the minor warming. 

Maybe he was referring to the vortex not splitting.. But they did definetly reverse. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Oooo heights are being removed in this bout of runs across europe.. 

 

Interesting pattern... 

Few more adjustments and it would make a massive difference to the pattern next week. 

Come on Shannon let's go the other way now. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

If this is the route we are heading after a SSW.. 

Give me back the trop pattern before it. 

Another Greenland high that can't get there, becoming a recurring theme, have we seen the end of it? 

The eps, ECM monthly have been poor in terms of producing big stonking black hole anomalies when in fact its nothing of the sort. 

Could end up very wet if the GFS is anything to go by. 

Ironically GFS has slightly colder air incoming 180 and looks a lot like the met video from yesterday? 

Who knows? 

Not me... 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

So we've had a major SSW 

Followed by a another minor warming so two reversals in as many weeks. 

FI is currently at day 3 because the models can't work out the conflicting factors and now we have a big ass pacific ridge that wants to flex its muscles in the artic. 

If we don't see at least one major outbreak before the end of winter then I'd give up chasing cold forever(not really) 

Insane charts for January 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

There's still to much energy and westerly momentum. 

Now the models could be over playing this as we've seen with the low thats going to bring snow to some but the modeling of the large peice ov PV to drop into Europe and back west is fading with every run. 

Fingers crossed for some upgrades soon. 

Poor ECM... 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

I wonder wether the second warming is flushing down any further westerlies just at the wrong time causing the lows to have a little more strength crossing the Atlantic? 

 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

GFS 18z sticks to fingers up at my query as to why the siberian vortex didn't want to visit anymore and marches the polar bears straight towards us. 

Ice ice baby? 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

This pattern is a bit perplexing to say the least... 

A few days ago we were watching a lobe of the vortex drop down into Europe and move eastward.. 

The last few days the runs are still showing a lot of westerly momentum to the point on the latest GFS where the lobe dosent drop at all. 

Not sure what's going on tbh? 

Para goes off one this time, be nice to just have consistency for a change. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Before the usual riff raff log in and start complaining that 850hPa temperatures are 0.2c too warm, this is a very good run from the GFS.

More in-line with the earlier GEFS suite and very similar to the ECM, if not a touch better.

Yes looking good. 

Nice little slider next Monday too. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Mean and control at 168 sticks two fingers at the op and keeps the lows further apart and also the low over the UK is much shallower. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Control good at 168 hours!!mean looks good!!

Mean looks awesome. 

You can see the increased heights towards Greenland and also the separation of the low with it being below the high. 

 

[Model tweets]

22 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

First drip signs from The met? 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

13 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If this is putting lipstick on a pig.. 

I want to also put a wig, a nice dress and take it out for dinner before putting a ring on it... 

Stunning. 

I've just dropped my knife under the table and leant down to retrieve it and my god what a view..... 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

If this is putting lipstick on a pig.. 

I want to also put a wig, a nice dress and take it out for dinner before putting a ring on it... 

Stunning. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Superb. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

I can see the GFS run on a different platform, it is a partial downgrade with a less robust cold spell, but not a reversal.

I don't understand if the whole run is delayed it cannot be viewed elsewhere?

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Has the scandi high got legs? 

Much stronger on GEM at just 78 hours?? 

 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Since the SSW there has been good agreement in the upper levels of the atmosphere that we would see a part of the vortex drop into Europe. Therefore when this starts to show up on the models it then infact becomes a trend as not only the upper levels are showing it but the lower levels too. 

Case in point below. 

Yes they are all 240+ hour away, but there is a clear trend that could lead to substantial cold air and snow for the majority. 

If you disagree then you should offer valid alternative posts instead of having a go at those who choose to get excited about what the actual models are showing. 

Aslong as each individual provides evidence to thier posts then being the model output discussion thread it's valid. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Also beautiful sypnotics from the para after its wobble yesterday. 

It makes a rats weeble of shortwaves in the Atlantic earlier on in the run but this allows eventually for a better Greenland high.