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ALL ABOARD

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    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    We are basically in a summer pattern which in itself is interesting. However even in the depths of summer you can still end up with large 980-990mbs low in the mid atlantic. 

    It'd be somewhat bad luck, but it definately could happen, indeed the phase 3-4 progression of the MJO would suggest thats a real possiblity as well. 

    Lets hope though that we maintain enough of a structual block and keep that LP to our SE that we need not worry about it.

    Of course. 

    But that's usually down to the strength of the sun which causes additional energy. 

    Null and void this time of year. 

    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    A west based -ve NAO doesn't have to necessarily be a disaster, alot really depends on just how active the Atlantic is and the start of the southerly running jet.

    The patter is very devoid of any major activity so its just a case of hoping that there isn't a poorly timed strong LP out in the atlantic. If its jut a weak wave train we will probably get away with a west based -ve NAO for a time.

    I don't see where the jet would get any sort of energy from? 

    No raging strat PV 

    No raging trop PV 

    No strong thermal gradient across America. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Our old mate Shannon entrophy will be knocking about for the next few weeks. 

    There's to much going on for the models to accurately focus past a few days. 

    A major reversal with a trop vortex that is almost non existent. 

    We could all be sipping shandys in a few weeks with a golden tan or wondering why there are polar bears standing in the back garden. 

    Would we have it any other way? 

    NO.. 

    Best model output watching for a long time. 

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    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I take it this could be the first time in our recorded history that we have a major SSW with a troposphere that is as weak as it is. 

    Therefore the papers the theories the wills it's or won'ts it can't be answered. 

    We can summerize but the weather will make fools of us all. 

    Its going to be so interesting to dissect this after the event. 

     

    • Like 5

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Sunday 3 Jan - Tuesday 12 Jan

    Likely remaining cold throughout this period with the risk of wintry hazards. It will be dry at times, with the driest and clearest conditions likely in the west and northwest, and showers likely further east. These showers often wintry with hill snow but with a chance of snow falling to lower-levels at times. There is potential for spells of more organised precipitation, accompanied by stronger winds to move north from the continent into southern and central areas. Additionally, there is also the potential for precipitation to move into northern areas if high pressure declines. Both scenarios could bring an associated snow risk particularly over hills. Temperatures are likely to be below average bringing the risk of frost and freezing fog along with very cold overnight temperatures over any snow cover.

    Tuesday 12 Jan - Tuesday 26 Jan

    Cold or rather cold conditions are likely to continue into this period, with associated wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be drier and more settled in the north and possibly extending into western areas. Exceptionally cold conditions are not expected however some severe overnight frosts are likely over any snow cover. Through the second half of the month the chance of colder than average conditions remain most likely, although occasional milder spells are possible. There is potential for unsettled conditions to develop across the south bringing above average precipitation, although the risk of wintry hazards would persist nationwide.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    May as well just write... 

     

    Cold.. Then colder.. 

    Snow.. Chances of blizzards from lows bumping into the cold 

    Northerly snow machine getting going. 

    Buy a shovel. 

    ?️

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I do hope you are right there. The 06 mean shows a much better easterly too. I will reserve judgement until the 12z run though. The good thing is that we don't have much time to wait until we know for sure. This is at day 5 to 6 now. 

    Marco did say last night that both the 6z and 18z have less inputted data than the 00z and 12z. 

     

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