Stu_London
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Posts posted by Stu_London
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1 minute ago, Atmogenic said:
checks the model output thread after about 3 weeks away from it
sees cold lovers getting excited about cold with a week or so away
yep nothing has changed in there
well, its a bit nearer than a week - more like 4 days now - although that still doesn't guarantee anything in a highly complex set up.
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:
When I'm more confident you can bet your bottom dollar I'll be on board with the best of the rampers!
The margins are really fine for this Stu, if we can end up on the right side of the low and keep it far enough out of the way then things will be peachy, end up even marginally on the wrong side and the risk of rain or sleet increases exponentially for almost every mile closer to our shores.
Onto better news though, 32 out of 51 members have snow settling in the SE by Monday 12z, which is an improvement on yesterday evening! Still shows a good 30-40% do not get snow down to this part of the country. EA the numbers of members giving snow are higher again.
Agree - when it is nailed on it is nailed on.
Whilst there are risks (however small) that threaten expectation, only right that they should be highlighted.
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Just now, Surrey said:
That's like saying gambling small amounts of money is okay but bigger lots might be more risky but okay too
I think the posts by Kold and myself can be seen as risk assessment, which has nothing to with gambling.
The only form of risk management involved in this particular exercise is the management of expectation (There is no option to share, offset, insure against or avoid the risk as the weather will do what it wants, ultimately).
If you view the posts as such, rather than an attempt to urinate on anyone's fireworks, then the you'll find the posts more helpful, I think.
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1 minute ago, Surrey said:
And trying to look at stuff beyond the weekend is stupid at the moment..
It's not stupid, it just comes with a caveat of a higher level of uncertainty.
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3 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Sorry I have seen a few of your posts this morning regarding this.
You are not taking into account important details. Regardless of how far away this event actually is.
The air source from where we are getting the cold from is bitter dry and cold. While on paper it may look like a rain situation I can assure you with thickness looking like it is and the source of cold air it wont be rain unless you live within 5 miles of the coast and have a on shore gale...
Not sure why im discussing the details of something that may not happen anyway
To be fair - I think the ECM is mixing air sourced from the Iberian Low, which wouldn't be necessarily cold and dry.
However as you say - it's not certain to happen - hence why more runs are needed to resolve.
2018 beast broke down for the south in this manner.
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:
ECM 00z still shows the risk should that LP drift a little too close or be a little too strong between Sun-Mon
Has a rain event for the SE, though the cold air does edge back in and it turns to snow for a great many eventually away from Kent and maybe parts of Sussex.
However if it shifts even slightly closer, that area would be extended into our whole region.
We are on such a knife edge down here, where literally even a 30-50 mile shift in either direction will make the difference between a large snow event and sleety mess.
Yes I noticed there was a bit more mixing of milder uppers on the ECM run - the hope has to be that this slightly trending away from this and historically things tend to end up a bit further south, but still a concern at this stage. One would hope that this will be resolved one or the other by tomorrow evenings output.
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Latest GFS has the whole region under cold air by early Sunday. Its quite keen for the atlantic to mow in quite quickly, by midweek, however we get a solid 3-4 day cold snap and there should be some snow for most, either blowing in from the east, or via the breakdown.
Some of the other models aren't as keen on a breakdown occurring quite as quickly, so worth keeping an eye on as we may well get a more substantive cold spell if the GFS is overdoing the mobility (wouldn't be the first time).
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Still very much in the game for our region after todays runs.
I think there still a chance that it could go wrong, a la 12z GFS, but the 18z ensembles seem to suggest that threat is diminishing.
If tomorrows models continue in the same vein, then I think it would take something extraordinary (but not completely unprecedented) for us not to get at least a 4 or 5 day cold spell with the chance of some snow. Then it will become a case of looking at the hi res models for PPN distribution.
Here's hoping that tomorrows models continue to move towards locking this in.
Looks like the Beeb and Met office are on board which is good as they will sit on the fence for as long as possible.
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Probably still scope for model drama with tomorrows runs, although more likely to be regional issues, the south and south east still looking like the area most flakey.
If we get to this time tomorrow with similar runs then a reasonable cold spell would look locked in from the weekend.
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Just now, Speedbird said:
As i said a bit earlier, IF this comes to fruition, the snow depths of 1987 could easily be surpassed.
Exciting times, but let's get them to a reliable timeframe before we get too carried away.
Yes - indeed - keep the BOOMs in the locker until at least Wednesday, possibly Thursday.
Still a chance things could go the way of the 06z GFS or similarly poorly
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2 minutes ago, Speedbird said:
Feast your eyes on this
and that's just to Monday - more coming down the line after with easterly severe gales and -12C uppers
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:Erm,
Which way is the wind blowing at day 8??
very zonal chart posted - were the earth spinning in the opposite direction
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I'll hold back on the BOOMs until we are +72
and more importantly, the NAVGEM is on board.
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ECM snow depth charts will be a laugh tonight.
They are super-rampy in normal times.
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some cross model consensus but I still fear this saga has a few twists yet
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If they are still the same on Wednesday - then its BOOM time
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5 days into the cold snap and no easy route back to mild
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20 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:
It’s a bit difficult getting excited about the charts and potential snow depths that are being indicated at the moment on the charts (if they ever happen). Being a kid who was in secondary school in the ate 1980s in the ‘north’, it was about waist deep drifts - not the 5-10 cm levels being progged for next weekish.
More like 30cm on the 12z for your location - and severe gales to boot
But 120hrs is like a life time in modelling terms right now
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Right back in the game on the 12zs - GFS and UKMO going for a pretty extraordinary event for our region from Sunday.
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2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:
The frontal boundary doesn't look like affecting the south east this time - less risk - but less reward
I think after what the 06z served up I would tend to agree.
South east should do ok with an easterly in any event
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Just now, frosty ground said:
These changes have a massive effect on where the snow falls, Scotland now dryer at this point.The frontal boundary doesn't look like affecting the south east this time - less risk - but less reward
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Just now, UKSnakey said:
Good afternoon. I did enjoy seeing the 00z having a real snow lovers dream for the weekend. And given how previous weekends have gone, I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being cold rain / sleet once more (saves getting my hope dashed). I'm also not going to buy into the idea until its showing on Fridays runs.
I do wonder though, is it worth just using the 00/12z runs? My understanding is that these datasets have more input data than the 6z/18z. Correct me if I'm wrong by all means!
I thought it might be different datapoints as opposed to any significantly inferior data.
Comparing daily runs (0z, to 0z next day), rather than inter-day runs (0z to 06z) is not a bad idea for longer term trends.
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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:
Then both ukmo and ecm would both have to wrong for gfs to verify, can't see that, but we will know in about 4 hours!
by trend continuing I would expect those models to start to move towards that sort of solution anyway. ECM has only been only been on board one run and has been flip-flopping like a fish out of water, so yet another change would not be the greatest surprise.
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16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Looking forward to the 12z Runs. Could be a notable cold spell for the SE, despite all the overreaction in the mad thread to one gfs run which was a mild run in the ensemble, and won't verify, bit like ecm and all the mild runs it was showing till today, and none of them verified either.
Expect a firming up on the cold weather later.
Hope you are right because if the trend from 06z were to continue, I think the fat lady would be stage left, ready to enter. For our region at least
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
These are still in FI - as we know verification of FI charts is poor.