Stu_London
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Posts posted by Stu_London
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1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:
For those Members, from Mid-Kent down to East Sussex, that depiction of Snowfall amounts on a N.E. flow, has the Mid-Kent Streamer written all over it:
Regards,
Tom.
I think whoever knocked this together has obviously spent some time in Tunbridge Wells to experience the so called snow events from January.
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Just now, nanu said:
Huh i wish, travelled by train to work Tuesday morning and was standing room only on it,, bosses are still telling there staff to come into work with some firms!
Unlucky - are there less trains now in response to fewer commuters.
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7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Sorry couldn't resist, I just hope the trains aren't all over the news again. I'm just gonna sit back look out of my window and enjoy.
no one using the trains any more - so I suspect it will be a non-story this time
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When do we think whatever falls out of the sky will be largely settling snow based on the latest models?
I would plump for something between midnight Saturday and 3am Sunday - perhaps a little earlier for the north of the region.
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2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
Is it still on, usually it has turned into a 24 hour wonder by now
Looks like a solid 5 day event from midnight on Saturday (which is +48 hours now - surely it can't go wrong from here).
Snow distribution to be resolved.
GFS 18z in FI has several dry days with sunshine and temps of 13C-15C - probably would scrape a 16 or 17C in favoured spots given the set up.
That would be my second choice as the days get longer into the second half of Feb
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ok - model dramas for this afternoon over.
I'd still back snow for all as about an 80-90% chance.
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3 minutes ago, Marie said:
Yep me too , my little labradooodle is just 1 years old and not seen snow yet , fingers crossed
I've heard labradoodles don't like snow all that much
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1 hour ago, Polaris said:
If it weren’t lockdown I’d definitely take a drive east on Sunday to Cambs, or Norfolk.
Do it anyway - just say you are going McDonalds or something - loads of others at it.
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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Its extremely marginal, though the upshot is the milder temps come through during literally the coldest part of the night, these sorts of things can make a material difference with super marginal events.
I suppose marginality will be the price to pay to allow more of the W.parts of the region involved with the snowfall yo a greater degree.
The other thing is we are still far enough out to have minor adjustments which on the macro level son't be huge, but in terms of practical weather it makes a big difference obviously.
The GFS being at the top of the envelope for marginality against the other models is reason for cheer. Although confirmations from the other 12zs would be reassuring.
Goes to show that while the Macro pattern for the next 5 or so days looks pretty solid. FI for the micro-pattern is pretty much +0.
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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:
12z GFS looks like its extending the moderate snowfall further SW covering basically the entire region.
Though hard to tell without seeing the closer in image. Also waiting to see what the 12z ICON shows for balance.
Looks like snowfall for the whole area on the morning hours before becoming increasingly restricted to the East of this region.
Not great uppers for Kent though - hopefully it just the GFS being the GFS
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1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:
I would like to experience thunder snow
️ I’m getting braver
if you stay indoors, you'll be fine
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:
Having heard Thundersnow 4 times in my life I can tell you the 1987 spell contained the most with if I remember correctly 5 seperate showers containing claps of thunder. 1991 contained 2 and the December 2010 event containing 2 events on the 2nd and 17th december. The February 2009 spell never contained any thundersnow here.
surely 2004 was the daddy for thundersnow - a near nationwide event as the squall front pushed south across the whole of the uk. Not a remarkable snow event in itself as was rain to snow - but a unique weather event in my memory.
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1 minute ago, Snow Queen one said:
How old are you lol I remember buying bottles of that to take to parties as a teenager. Can you still buy jt?
I think Prosecco is the rubbish fizzy wine of the current era
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:
Yeah thats a risk still.
However a couple of key points:
1: If its above -5c it doesn't mean it will rain, though I admit by the coast it would make things much more iffy. All depends on the airflow really, if we can keep the core of the LP to our SE, the airflow will come in from the SE and keep us cold enough, as per the 06z OP.
2: Other ensemble models are much less worried about this:
GEM : 4 out of 22 members (inc OP) look too warm.
ECM: 3 out of 52 members (inc OP)
So its probably the GFS again doing what GFS does best, overegging the development which devlops too much of a warm sector.
All this is not to say its not a risk, because it clearly still could be, but for now I'd say the odds are still very much in our favour.
what is remarkable is the range of solutions GFS has between 60-72 hours.
I suspect we will fall the right side of marginal, but FI has been reeled into to almost +24-48h
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4 minutes ago, EML Network said:
Yup I went through all the GFS runs this morning as I had a bit of spare time and most of them had a push of warmer air over quite a large chunk of the South East which would be warm enough to turn any precipitation to rain in the areas the LP covers.
it would only need a teeny tiny shift south though of these pesky Low pressure so it stays centred over France and doesn't encroach here, but if anything the various runs are bringing these into play more.
These are the runs from the GFS 06z that would POTENTIALLY ruin any chances of seeing snow falling in the areas the low pressure covers, ESPECIALLY so down here and sadly there is quite a lot of them showing this at some point or another over Sunday and into Monday.
RUN 1 + Uppers
Run 5 + Uppers
Run 10 + Uppers
Run 13 + Uppers
Run 14 + Uppers
Run 16 + Uppers
Run 20 + Uppers
Run 21 + Uppers
Run 27 + Uppers
Run 30
That's far too many runs for my liking, in fact it's exactly 1/3 of them.
There's a couple in there where we might get away with lower dewpoints off the continent and the short sea track. There are also a couple of absolute shockers that wouldn't even deliver the usual sleet-fest.
For balance, there are a few members that go a little colder than the op - with everything further south.
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:
I think they are a bit underwhelming predictions to be honest and would expect most of the region to get between 2-3 Inches or 6-8cm of Snow by Monday with lucky spots seeing 6 Inches or 10-15cm
Could be a bit more Paul - the beeb are dragging the continuous band of heavy snow, further and further south with each run - yesterday it was EA and Midlands and today it covers most of our region.
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Just now, Britneyfan said:
I hope it don’t affect the vaccination programme too much! I would love 20 to 30cm of snow as everyone else, but I also want to see the back end of covid through vaccines and we have one of the best vaccine programs in the world! Something to be proud of, I just hope the snow don’t hinder that
I think it's inevitable that there will be some disruption.
However it doesn't usually stay very cold for too long, so hopefully won't completely derail the program
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6 minutes ago, SlimJ said:
Been a while since I've been on here! But should I get tins in?
I'd recommend guns also - possibly complete breakdown of civilisation from Sunday.
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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Yeah whats interesting is how the first low is already getting increasingly modelled weaker, though quite a few ensemble and ops are still starting to weaken the hold of the cold air a little over the south due to a switch around to a slightly kore southerly direction.
Won't make any difference away from the coasts mind you as the cold is pretty well established at the surface at least to start with.
The 2nd low looks alot stronger to me, though agian as @sunnijimsaid above it may well end up being the case that even the 2nd low gets rebounded and shears away to the east. I personally think the 2nd one may be the one, at least for the south (and you can kinda see that on the ensemble graphs above for the south, not so much for the north though), but even then the surface temperatures will lag 24-36hrs behind any rise of the 850hpa profile.
For anyone that didn't see the 18z Para from Saturday (I think) - it was showing brutal uppers of between -12C and minus -18 piling into the uk throughout the run from this weekend right up to +384h and would gone on for sometime thereafter, if anything getting progressively colder. There were a few days in the south where milder air won out for a time, but by the end of the run, the whole of the UK was back in the freezer. Nothing in the current modelling to suggest anything like that will happen, but the trend seems to be in that direction.
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3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
An improved set of GEFS for my location - cold is in by 72 and more cold members at 192, showing a trend to extend the cold.
And for our northern friends, these are for Manchester - even colder!
The for those in the north east - sweet baby Jesus
Those north east ensembles are not far off the GFS para was showing a few evenings ago - perhaps it was onto something.
In the meantime, it does look like we will be in for a classic modelling case of the breakdown being shunted back continuously. If I had to guess, I would say most of the UK will now get a minimum of a full week solid cold spell, with the potential for more.
Only concern is for the far south and south west as more marginal conditions are never that far away.
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More positive runs today.
The 18z seems to be an improvement on mixing in the higher uppers as the low clears a bit cleaner, which should help keep us cold.
The low clearing also seems to be dragging the ppn south - BBC graphics had an EA and midlands event earlier, but is now trending more to the southeast. The worry is that it trends into the channel and northern France, however we are only 72-96 hours from it now, so hopefully no more dramatic deviation.
Doesn't look like an epic long lasting spell however its interesting that the GFS has delayed the breakdown from Wednesday to Thursday in the space of a couple of runs. If that pattern continues, we might squeeze laying snow out until next weekend.
In any event, the last thing we need in the country is a highly disruptive long lasting severe winter outbreak, so putting aside whatever selfish preferences we have, a short lived boom, might be best for all in the long run.
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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:
Spot the pattern over the last 3 runs from ECM regarding Sunday further south....
If that trend continues, then hopefully the mixing of the slightly less cold uppers, might get pushed into N.France also
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Can't worry about any breakdown yet - a solid cold spell of 5 days (more for northern parts) is not be sniffed at.
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12 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Am I the only one who really doesn't care how long the snow lasts, as long a it snows heavy over night and gives a decent covering? - Haven't seen that for years down this way
A nice covering would be good to look at for a short while - if GFS verifies and its all gone by Thursday - I could live with that. When it hangs around and just turns into ice - it's not as pleasant.
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Good idea - we can email snow to those that miss out