Flash bang flash bang etc

By all accounts last night’s little show on the SE coast is a good example of a somewhat under-egged forecast - probably a better and more solid storm than most would have expected. Shame it wasn’t further west and inland but I think a good indicator that this slack regime we have offers itself best to nowcasting and that anything can happen. At one point nearly 10,000 strikes in the course of about an hour from a couple of very slow moving continental storms - right on our doorstep! Until we get our Atlantic system and jest stream back i’m taking most storm forecasts with a very fresh pinch of salt

Feeling fresh this morning so I think you’ll need plenty of sun to beef things up. Last night shows even in a low risk zone we can get some hefty little storms going though...

https://www.viewsurf.com/univers/surf/vue/16762-france-nord-pas-de-calais-merlimont-live

Moving very slowly but the total strikes registered from those two cells combined is impressive

It’s very close to you

A lot of the humidity came and went last week without even a single spark, so humidity - while important - is just part of the bigger picture. We have the same chance this week as last week in my opinion. Last week was grossly over-egged (imby anyway) and the storms that did occur were overrated and disorganised. I’m after some decent thundery showers over the weekend - reckon it’s not too much to ask

Like last week I think isolated storms could be of the shock and awe variety - short and noisy with very heavy rain. Not expecting a monsoon tonight but that stuff in France is edging closer, there’s small acas towers about outside (was a line of them earlier) and the night is young. Wouldnt be at all surprised if a few discreet cells pass by during the night

That stuff in France has caught my attention - just take a look on sat24 and that cloud is exploding!

Well a possibility of storms this evening so I’ll be radar watching Obviously they won’t be quite like the ones last week - remember those almighty gentle rain showers we got? Ha! No you won’t remember those, because I don’t think we even really got any rain... lol

600 j/kg CAPE ain’t bad - but the lack of any shear and more importantly nothing to ‘force’ decent convection means unlikely, but not impossible. Again, with these strange conditions we have at present nothing should be ruled out but I think until we get our jet stream back any plumes or decent spells of warm/hot weather we get will end up with these funny days of scattered short lived storms. The sooner we get out of this weather rut the better! That said, fingers crossed for the second half of the week for something electrical...

If nothing happens i’m not bothered at all - we’ll have another chance on weds/thurs anyway. For me it has to be the right kind of storm, and we only get one or two of those a year. Doubt any storms we have in the next few weeks will have much in the way of shear and will be those tossy pulse storms. By the way that French stuff will never make it here. Not a chance

Read something about the upward parcels of air being accelerated by some process today (over on UKWW) don’t really understand the science but it’s made me quite hopeful there might be some scattered and sporadic lightning tonight

Lol I remember the ‘referendum storm’ it was a weird one - not quite overhead - but I remember it booming all around toward the end but we had no rain so I went for a walk in it and felt quite uneasy

I am holding out the smallest hope Edit: very heavy showers moving over Reading area. Doesn’t look like they will become electrified but proves that there is potential

Glad to be of service The darkest looking skies are moving away west, but seems like everyone has their windows wide open down our street and it’s really warm and still out. This reminds me of when I was little and we ended up having big storms afterwards - same kind of feeling.

Same here - really quite threatening skies developing

This evening could provide some interesting developments. Huge storms just the other side of the channel, very high temps here in Surrey, plus really clear air and the cumulus have a very defined edge to them. An upgrade (of sorts) to CW this afternoon putting pretty much the whole of southern England in the picture for a (admittedly very low) chance of something electrical. Nevertheless it’s a good reason to keep one wary eye on the radar for the next couple of hours... these slack flow conditions can be rather unpredictable

Try having that happen all week

Pulse storms - good for 10 mins then *pop* they gone

26° the other day and nothing happened so don’t let it fool you

This is my professional opinion: (sorry about the quality of the map)

There have been patchy clear spells on a diagonal line up from the very SE tip of the U.K. towards the mid wales coast since about 10am - I figured convection would probably spark off along this corridor though I’m not too confident on how far these’ll grow regarding showers getting particularly electrical. Should give a decent amount of rain in some of these but I wouldn’t know about hanging any weather warnings on ‘em

I think just stating anywhere in the U.K. is enough for today. Ireland also has a good chance for some strong storms

Temperature seemed to be irrelevant yesterday. Sure I saw my van say it was 27° at one point and we still got nothing

Think you need to draw your blob a little more across the midlands and towards the south. In fact just do what CW have done - draw it round the whole isle. i’m watching small small towers going up over west London as we speak