Flash bang flash bang etc
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Everything posted by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Suddenly cold draught here near Guildford - reckon a strike nearby any minute- 3,835 replies
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The sferics on radar are appearing a clusters of 3-4 strikes at once, by my reckoning these indicate large and sprawling forked lightning bolts but it’s unlikely they’ll be visible because of low cloud and because they are quite elevated in the destabilising layer. What you’ll most likely see is sheet lightning with several pulses each time Where you can see the forks themselves (should they occur) you’ll probably see some spectacular lightning albeit fairly infrequent
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This is a slo-mo video I got earlier today of lightning appearing to strike one of the tall cranes next to the Walkie Talkie building - (unfortunately the rain reduced the visibility a lot) 02087EEC-DFF5-4188-9974-DA69305DFA34.mp4
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Oooooh.... waiting for a rumble
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It’s persisting it down
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The further south these cells go they seem to level out and move in a more westerly track. Maybe they will curve up towards Wales the more west they get?
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Some sort of glitch in the triangulation system. I think glitch might be the wrong term though, if you look at the way the systems detect lightning using radio waves there are plenty of sources of interference that can mess with the results a little. This info gets calculated to work out a spot (triangulation & maths yo) but if the raw data is off or it detects RF signals that aren’t caused by actual lighting it’ll give you a false return. They don’t happen a lot but if there’s a lot of activity it tends to occur more regularly. Lightningmaps and netweather I think are better at picking up false returns and removing them but I don’t know how they make this work
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I’ve got the old clicks on blitzortung and zoomed in on our area. Love this bit - waiting for the click then the rumble 10-15 seconds later...
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I think that’s the front of it - weird it was heading west earlier and now it’s heading way more north Edit: think it’s decaying though
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Even a bog standard thunderstorm sounds exciting to me these days, lol
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These two French cells look curious... is that rotation?
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Along the south coast too! I fear just too far south for Guildford but hopefully I can hear it rumble past at least
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Ooooh going bang down our way!
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Here’s a question: What’s ‘skinny’ CAPE? I know they measure it in joules like other CAPEs so it can’t relate to the amount, but what exactly makes it different to normal CAPE?
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I bet North Sea Bloke is having an amazing time on his secret private island (51.9787692,2.5276558)
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Could be tornado season in Warminister on Thursday if it all comes together
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I saw that and yes he was pretty spot on with this morning so kudos for that - I just disagree about tonight, although I do see fresh sferics much closer to the east coast just now which could be a good sign. No point getting over excited about it it this stage that’s all - forecasts generally said showers, weaker further north, heavier and more likely electrical further south Edit: mainly I think the suggested track he has indicated is a bit out, but time will tell...
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Like how bold you are with your convictions but if this week has proven anything it’s that these weather systems won’t behave like you expect I think the rain will become more showery with the odd heavier pulse more likely the further south you are Electrical activity will wane but that’s not to say a rogue strike won’t catch you out - even in the Midlands - but the further north you are the more showery the rain spells will be This trough is already weakening and will continue so throughout the night - tomorrow looks quieter on the convective front at the moment, but Thursday could really be a big day for both the midlands and the south with some juice and triggers to really get those party lights going good and proper Edit: midnight onwards tonight could well throw up a few surprises for the extreme south and east so don’t give up hope if nothing happens before then...
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Oooh
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The rain in Rainham falls mainly on the main (roads)
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Just to clarify that those North Sea storms will have much less of a northerly track by the time they reach shore - also despite being elevated they can’t (and won’t) go on forever regardless of how immune they are to the sea so we will see a weakening trend as they progress. Dont want to be a party pooper but I’m a bit worried those in the North might be reading too much into them, although it would be wonderful if I was wrong. Looking at the track of the comparatively tiny cells we currently have in the U.K. they are headed westwards, if not a little southerly too. However storms in France are headed on a northerly track so it depends which one wins out. Best of luck to everyone but as much as the forecasts are quite general and have in recent days made a few miscalculations none of the ones I read say about monster overnight storms in the U.K., at least not for the North anyway
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Storms likely to pass along the M4 corridor I think - so i’ll have the van ready if I the need arises to head up camberley way
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