MidnightSnow

Yeah it's going to be fun seeing how this one pans out. Only yesterday it was looking too far north for us, and now today N France is the form horse. Still plenty of margin for error, so lets hope it ends up somewhere in the middle of those two scenario's. Either way, it's nice to have snow opportunities so early in the season. Severe frosts too which is the next best thing for me personally. I'm not a morning person, but going to try and get outdoors early over the next few days.

Don't lows like this tend to correct further south as we approach the reliable timeframe? Or is that a myth?

Think this was quite widespread because I fondly remember Feb 1st 2019 here in Bristol. Not 17cm but it was a decent amount.

Would be nice to see some falling snow this time of year, even if it's very light in nature. Hopefully some in our region get lucky Fri night / Sat morning.

Little snippet for Saturday from the recent MetO 10 day trend video. Snow and Freezing rain for the NE of the region.

Edit: AWD beat me to it. Still looking good from the ICON

Fully understand that the MetO can get it wrong, but they're still the best we've got. If we can't trust the pro's, then we certainly shouldn't trust anybody else.

Nah the party is still going for me. Feel a lot better now it's not just the ICON suggesting decent snow on Saturday. Hoping to hear a more detailed forecast from the MetO tomorrow for the weekend.

Latest MetO forecast posted 2 hours ago mentions snow risk in the SW on Friday. Although I think that risk has to be for the far SW? I don't think any model has the PPN pushing very far inland at all. (Could be wrong though.) One to keep an eye on for the most snow starved maybe?

The MetO didn't even mention Thursday / Friday in their afternoon forecast today. Don't know if that's because it's not 'Week Ahead' video or because the uncertainty is still too high. Looks like it could go either way.

Don't wanna quote your entire post again AWD, but I think that's gotta be as good as it can get. Some miss out but I think that scenario would involve as many as possible.

Yeah I think you're right. First option is looking like the form horse right now. Dreaming of some middleground scenario where it stalls just a little further inland.

I'll probably give it until Wednesday evening before writing off the Thurs / Fri snow potential. We're still within that timeframe where it can easily flip back again. This MetO vid was only posted a few hours ago and it's clear there's still lots of uncertainty:

Ouch.

Yeah I've been hesitant to post charts in FI, but many charts support this. If we get unlucky on Thurs / Fri, there's going to be more attempts from the atlantic next week. This isn't your bog standard easterly, so you'd think temps will be on the right side of marginal for many of us. I think we're safe from hearing the dreaded 'Snow north of M4' line for a little while. Might have about 50 miles leeway for a change.

Ah nice one, cheers for the update. Yeah for a minute or two I thought we could see more than a flurry this afternoon. Those showers to our east kept beefing up but running through the animation I'm too far North. Maybe they might scrape S Bristol? I'm NE Bristol unfortunately

I gotta stop looking at the radar. Trying to convince myself I will catch some of that snow but it's gonna go right under me. Anyone in here from Swindon? Looks like it will go directly over you.

Has there just been a downgrade? I've been catching up on all the posts from this morning and the charts that AWD posted looked very good for Thurs / Fri. Anything changed since then?

Nooo not you too Khodds. There's not many positive posters left. I recommend reading the posts a few days before the epic March 1st 2018 spell. Lots of crying and whinging only a few days before it happened. We know what happened next. Chin up fella

Ventured into the South East regional thread and was surprised to see so much disappointment. Seems like Ipswich and surrounding areas have done well, but everywhere else not so much.

Maybe so, but they're still the best we have by far.

There could still be a 100+ mile adjustment either way at this stage. Still a little way off yet

Would you mind posting those charts when they look good too? I posted it the other day after seeing it in the MOD thread. Nowhere to be seen in here when it looked promising.

Tonight / Sunday never really looked that good for our area. If we get anything at all it will be a bonus in my eyes. The interest for me was always going to be next week. Tuesday is still far enough away to see more northern adjustments (some models already have most of our region seeing heavy snow). Then there's more possibilites of snow Thursday / Friday. I get that I'm probably more optimistic than most... but I also think there's a fine line between being a realist and just bringing the thread down for the sake of it. Misery loves company. Think back to every good snow event you ever had. Was it ever straight forward? Was snow ever nailed on so early in advance? It's always gonna go down to the wire for us, that's just the way it is.

This is what I've been waiting to show up... pretty good upgrades today. I still think this is our best chance of significant snow. Although I'd take what's on offer tonight which seemingly came out of nowhere yesterday.