MidnightSnow
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Everything posted by MidnightSnow
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I doubt this will be posted by a certain someone because the UKV actually looks good for a change. Could get a decent covering from this. EDIT: Also worth sharing what Man Without Beard just posted in the mod thread for some in here:
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Yup, and I don't think this scenario is that far out of the question really. There's going to be proper cold embedded and I don't think the atlantic steamrolls through the country on the first attempt. I think parts of the West Country up to the Hereford and Worcester area will be in the best position for a stall.
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Nothing grinds my gears more than "Roll on spring" comments before a cold spell has even started.
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Slight upgrades on both the ICON & GFS 12z for Saturday / Sunday. Both further west.
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!!! lets hope!!?? for! more!!??!?! upgrades!!!!??!?
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Anything from the east is going to be showery in nature. I'd rather risk it all and get a dumping than 0.5cm of powder snow.
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I'm not usually one to look too far ahead, but it's hard to ignore 'what could be' next week. Already a bit of anxiety kicking in about where that LP system is going to track. If we get lucky, then there's going to be some ridiculous snow totals across southern England and Wales. Some of those snow estimation charts are the highest I've ever seen. It's gonna be painful if that low goes over N France
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You would think that there have been downgrades this afternoon if you go into the Mod thread. I'm actually liking the way it's going... more chance of the legendary channel low popping up for the SW & Wales. Still way off that yet but it's been a good day IMO.
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Hopefully round #3 without the marginality.
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I've found the radar to be strangely innacurate today, anyone else? Should've been under moderate / heavy snow for the past 15-30 mins but only seeing bits of dandruff
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100% snow here. Was moderately coming down for about 5 mins, now light again.
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According to the radar, ppn has been over my area for 20-30 mins. Still not a single flake yet... patience
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Surprise snowfalls are the best, I hope this is one of them. PPN seems to be holding nicely. Anyone from S Bristol seeing anything yet?
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Timing
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Every time the fairy tale charts change to an undesirable outcome, the model thread turns into a snipe-fest. It's a bit sad really, must be proper annoying for the mods.
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It's so close that some parts of Bristol are in the snow zone and others aren't. Gonna be a nowcast like always... but promising when models are trending south. The ICON 12z is further south too.
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ECM 6z is a little further south.
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Just need a few more little upgrades to involve more of our region. MetO still uncertain where the snow line will be: "An area of rain pushing in from the southwest through the early morning will readily turn to snow in places as it encounters colder air. There remains a good deal of uncertainty in how far north the rain and snow will get, before the band stalls and starts to move south again as it eases. 3-7 cm of snow is possible to low levels."
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Model output discussion 24/01/21
MidnightSnow replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That chart makes me want to order an adult sized pram filled with plenty of toys. You can be confident it will pan out that way if you're in the snow zone. It looks annoyingly accurate. -
Transient but I'd still bank this.
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A better angle from early this morning. Glad I got my ass out of bed because I'm not sure I've seen snow this heavy before. I recon we got an inch in about 30-40 mins. That was basically our lot but was still really cool to see. 20210124_061042_001.mp4
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BBC graphics have it hitting parts of our region by 7pm. Seems a bit too early but we'll see.
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Hopefully this morning was just a taster.
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