Dr. Astro
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Posts posted by Dr. Astro
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It got down to -2C here and a low dew point of -7.5C
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Not sure how much is up there, but in macc we probably had around 4 inches Thursday and Buxton has got something rediculous so I'd imagine theres a fair amount drifting around up there. I heard the local roads were temporarily closed today due to drifting.
Yep, can see from the local webcams Buxton is pretty bad (or good) !
Would imagine there is a fair bit up Shutlins being over 500m high.
I'm still undecided where I will go, Teggs Nose, Shuts or Buxon... Argh!
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Thanks guys.
Trouble I find with Teggs Nose is its always packed with people going sledging. They were parking a half mile either side of the carpark when I drove past the other week.
Macc forest up to Shutlingsloe is another good one, but again seems to be everyones favourite place this side when I've been up there mountain biking just lately.
Yep, I know exactly what you mean, although I'm an early bird, i'll be there before 7am, I doubt anyone else will be (Hopefully)...
Was just looking at Shutlingsloe just now, is it deep there?
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If you can get up there, park at the Cat and Fiddle and then walk out towards Shining Tor and Cats Tor (great views over Cheshire and Manchester if its clear), then you can either retrace your steps or drop down into Goyt Valley.
Did that walk in the snow we had 2 weeks ago and there was plenty up there after a smaller snowfall.
Couple of pics from then.
Thanks Martin,
Might give that one a shot, great pictures by the way.
Just been looking and it appears Teggs Nose is full of deep snow ?
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Sounds like you should go to buxton for deep snow
Aye, I think you are right - not sure I know any dog trails though around Buxton.
Been Teggs Nose, Macc Forest etc.
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Settling myself for a very cold albeit dry week ahead. Just a shame we had the big thaw on Friday at a local level. However driving back on the M60 from Manchester this sunny afternoon and observing the snow covered hills of Oldham was a sight to behold. That's were I'll be heading tomorrow.
How deep are we talking ?
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Anyone know what the Peak District is like ? Looking for somewhere with deep snow to take the dog for a walk tomorrow?
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After todays melting sludgefest might not be, but if models are to be believd might be whitened over again tonight! Tis lovely!
Ta, going to leave it until Sunday, as Saturday Night for that area looks decent.
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Think some of you need to take a step waaaaay back instead of analysing each run and taking it as Gospel.
Read Fergie's post..
Some clarity re Mon-Tues. Some people here seem to be over-reacting to how UKMO warnings are currently laid-out, plus perhaps some misinterpretation of modelling.
The current warnings into Tuesday (in particular) show E coastal threat of snow showers, because there's higher confidence that the set-up will inevitably lead to these. Conversely, the warnings do NOT currently include anything else across the UK. This is NOT to be misconstrued as UKMO convinced there is no threat of disruptive weather elsewhere: indeed, far from it. It's merely because we are in a lull period - one of careful reflection, if you like(!) - to gather stock of what may or may not be looming into that period.
The threat of disruptive snow *somewhere*, currently rated as 40%, is evident from the UKMO-GM 06z output for Tuesday, with the development of a secondary feature signalled in a number of models (since yesterday) to feed south across western areas. This development evolves from a northward extension of a baroclinic zone, then being engaged and invigorated by a diffluent zone up aloft set to come out across Greenland and then over Iceland. Whilst cross-model support for the upper air pattern is good up to early Monday, the outcomes then diverge markedly - and these key upper sensitivities are crucial to what happens next. Anyone attempting to be prescriptive or offer detail on what will happen is simply bonkers, or misguided. This forecast headache isn't going to resolve speedily!
One thing that is quite evident, however, is how a continued veering of flow Mon-Tues will ensure the country sits under a reservoir of cold air with little scope for marginality in the sense of what we've had this week.
So, it's way, way too premature to either write-off snow prospects for W Country into Tuesday especially, nor 'big them up'. We are in a period of huge uncertainty. I think the problem is folk seeing GFS runs through the day and over-reacting to each and every one, rather than taking a step back and appreciating the overall trend/patterns (as opposed to freaking-out over inter-run nuances way out at lead times of T+72+).
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Longdendale trail first thing!
Will,
thats really nice, where is that - is it suitable for dogs ?
Edit - Realise where it is now, wanted to do that a few weeks ago - is it full of snow ?
If so, i'll do that circular walk tomorrow.
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Snowing atm and have so much snow! More later!? Woopwoop.... Not driving today at all, trains working fine so heading back to padfield for one more coat of paint before tenants move in tomorrow....
Ace!
Can't wait to come up there this weekend !
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Met office hinting at breakdown next weekend.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7859/ECH1-240_bki1.GIF
Output suggesting this possibility, yet when someone suggests it they often get shouted down...
If this were the other way round, not many would have a problem with people hunting for cold....
A little respect to others opinions and each other would be a good discussion I feel.
Yes, well said. Some are picking up on a potential breakdown, albeit the ens don't really agree.
I would try to focus on getting the cold in place first though, before looking for the end on charts 10 days away.
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Got some good snowfall from the system last night.
Great Pictures PM, looks lovely.
I'm sure I have walked through there with the dog.
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Well said Dr Astro "Anyways, just like to say what a great thread it was last night, lots of interest, nearly 2000 people were on the forum,"
It was a super experience and all the differing views lead to lots more trails of info and reading.
Still no snow for me
Ah Jo, it will come !
It's not often these features come along, but I can imagine even people at the Met Office were quite excited about it ?
For me, it's the best kind that can happen, as it's such a now-cast and can go literally anywhere.
A Major
For forecasters, but i'm sure they love it.TEITS - Good job, same track as I had it, NW England, through the middle and down the SE.
Was very surprised it got to the SE mind.
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I know I annoyed people going on about it not being a polar low, but honestly how could it have been? We are just diluting our weather terminology so that it is becoming meaningless dumbed down garbage! This has really peed me off and everyone gets suckered in by the hype it's just pathetic, perhaps I contribute to the wrong kind of forum
I went to bed and you were moaning about it not being a Polar Low... I wake up, your still moaning about it not being a Polar Low.
If something so insignificant peed you off so badly, and were all pathetic for getting "suckered" by the hype, then maybe you are right.
Some of us actually got quite a dumping from it, thanks !
Anyways, just like to say what a great thread it was last night, lots of interest, nearly 2000 people were on the forum, Server Overload!
Lets hope we see another, "Polar Low" sometime soon !
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Heavy snow Salford. Already a covering.
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Snowing already at some coastal areas of NW England.
Good sign for everyone else.
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It will turn more to snow. It has to hve a warm sector at first as it picks up all the moisture, then cooling, then sleet, then snow. Obv the more East you are the better.
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wow just stuck my head out the window and recieved a face full of ice cold rain.. it was akin to biting into a choc ice, and then getting untimely brainfreeze.
Lol I so pictured that scene of you then !
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Night...that orange glow in the sky...and the snow itself on the ground with that orange look to it.
Ditto
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So forecaster pressure on now, which English counties will the centre of the low move over tonight. Will have to be judged from radar imagery. Irish Sea to English Chanel or North Sea. Forecast tracks please. 700mb 850mb winds are NNW
Just for fun, and we can have a look in the morning. This kind of small scale low is notoriously tricky to forecast, so don't feel pressured
Ha!
You first ?
Irish Sea... Via Peak District... Towards SE ! Heavy snow for those East of Manchester...
If you look at the latest NW Radar, you can see the streamer running through the Peaks... Thats my track.
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Barmada Casten checking his snow this morning lol ;-)
Thats funny !
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Rain reports over NI so its official this is the first ever rainy polar low to hit the UK!
OK, we get it, you don't think it's a Polar Low besides the professionals calling it one.
P.S - Polar Lows can deliver rain, or snow. It's currently snowing on it's Eastern Flank in Scotland.
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For forecasters, but i'm sure they love it.
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Ugh...
It's a Cold High,.