Dr. Astro
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Posts posted by Dr. Astro
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Where is here?
At work, sorry.
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A little bit of wet snow here now...
Edit - only lasted about 1 minute, but was wet snow / sleet. Bodes well for later.
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DP's can not be far from being negative across the region..... temps will fall in showers.
Yes, nearly -1C here in Manchester, temp falling now to 4.7C, and should drop 3C in the showers, depending on how heavy they are.
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Unless we get a plummet of temps it's not looking good, especially as it will be raining tomorrow afternoon...
Well it's 3.9C here now, and dropping at a rate of -1C per hour.
Dew point has just fallen past the 0C mark too. (Manchester)
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Personally, I would like to see the model threads more split up along the lines of Pre T120 and post T120. The reason for this? I'm sick and tired of trawling through competing posts saying "oh My God, what a snow fest!" and "put on the suntan lotion". - only to find that the charts they are looking at are for D20+!
Up to 5 days out there's an 80% chance of the model verifing ( mind you, I find some models don't verify at T0). The real amateur forecaster will try and correct for the 20% error whereas the "Chart readers" will ...
Post T120, the verification rates drop alarmingly to about 20% at T240, then it just seems a competition to see who spots the "trend". Really, am I interested who "spots" the trend first? or that the present cold snap is shown to fade away after D40, when it hasn't really got going yet? NO!
Anyway, when it comes to "if", "when" or "where will it snow" or even "how much is it going to snow" then you're talking about a 24 hour window at max not 240 hours!
I agree with that although i'd to to T144.
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and this morning....
im not so certain, the models have shifted significantly towards a snowier, colder spell that lasts longer.
however...
SPRING is on the way!
after a cold spell the anomaly chart is moving in the right direction suggesting that by about day 11 pressure should be shifting to our east/south with a mid atlantic trough sweeping mild southwesterlies across us
.... if only Just looks like a coldish West feed to me... and wet.
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Wind is now around 300° so almost a proper NW flow as opposed to earlier WNW feed, hence the lower temps.
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Yeah just watched it from my office windows, saw 2 people get blown over, not nice!!
Yes, but did you laugh ?
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That was some hailstorm that just went through Manchester.
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Yeah, I'm at the Centre for Atmospheric Science working in research. Looking forward to the potential snow showers later - although the view from my window isn't the best!
Ah what a great sounding job ! My father in law works there, think he is head of engineering or something to do with Energy, he's a chartered engineer anyways.
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Certainly notable this cold front, looks like we had a drop of about 5C in a short space of time in Manchester City Centre. We also have another observation site at Holme Moss (524m asl), the present weather sensor was reporting light snow not too long ago with a temperature ~ 1C. After the last cold spell there was about 8" of snow, but difficult to measure because of the drifting!
http://www.cas.manchester.ac.uk/restools/fieldstations/holmemoss/met/data/index.html
Thank you for that Gary, great Observation sites. Do you work for Man Uni ?
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Ladmanlow pal wet flakes
Great, well that bodes well, temps are dropping and dew points are falling quickly.
Might pop up there this weekend with the Dog if we get enough snow.
Cheers,
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First snow of the day in Buxton
Where abouts in Buxton is it snowing ? Harper Hill & Cat & Fiddle have rain at the moment.
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Temp has plummeted here 4C in the last hour.
Just awaiting the torrential rainfall now as per the radar.
Exciting weather !
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Met office should have some warnings out for wind its crazy
Damn right, were near 70mph gusts here.
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Have a great view here of Manchester, and just watching the squall lines passing over is pretty immense.
Over 50 MpH now.
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With all the talk about possible snow for many later not much focus has been paid to the active cold front about to rattle through. We've just had a pre frontal shower pass through Manchester, peak gust around18 m/s and rain rate 30mm/hr measured at the Whitworth Observatory at the Uni of Manchester:
Hi Gary,
Yes, that was a bit crazy. I am in Piccadilly and it didn't half blow a gale (40mph) with heavy rain.
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Great charts this morning, big upgrades for early next week too, the -10C 850's reaching down the Western side of the UK and into South Wales, a lot of places could see snow from this:
Brrrr:
A very cold run overall from the GFS, all the way out into deep FI.
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Well this looks good. Never seen it so.
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I think if you are in the Machester Region tomorrow, you will be in prime position.
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Thanks Lorenzo,
Remember the 78' Blizzard well, although it was much strong wind speeds then, consistent 90mph and reaching around 115mph if I remember correctly.
Still, this will be a lifetime event maybe for some.
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- Popular Post
So, what have I missed since Friday?
Some of this:
And this:
Sometimes this from Frosty:
A bit of this from Mushy:
Quite a bit of this:
Quite a lot of this:
Leading to a lot of this:
Followed mainly by the "Downgrade Crew" before something has begun:
Pretty much the MOD thread through the week up to now, so naw... You ain't missed much.
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NAM accumulated snowfall > 39hrs
Chart courtesy weatherbell
Look at the spike Boston area, pushing 30 inches.
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For Boston Today... How excited would you be if this was for the UK?
“This storm definitely has the capability of being not only historic but also catastrophic,†said Benjamin Sipprell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Taunton. The weather service issued a blizzard warning in effect from 7 p.m. Monday to 1 a.m. Wednesday.
“People should be making preparations right now,†Sipprell said Sunday.
“This is going to be all-out whiteout snow, crippling everything. We’re highly advising no travel, starting late Monday, going into Tuesday and on into Wednesday.â€
.... if only 
North West England - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Tuesday