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Dr. Astro

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Posts posted by Dr. Astro

    Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yep - for the 3rd time I'll say Feb 1996 is the shape of this scenario. Can we be that lucky again?

     

    Extended GFS op not that great - not watched this parallel (now "normal") GFS long enough to work out yet whether it also has the general progressive bias that its predecessor had. Anyone picked up any trends with this new version yet?

     

    Glad someone else sees it!

     

    If we could get the height's more into the Arctic region, split the vortex, it would look uncanny.

     

    Maybe, just maybe ...

    • Like 1

    North West England - Weather chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Looks a drier mid to late pm for most parts now unless showers start developing again. Largely missed the showers this morning even the band of showers that went through earlier, this area went between two core cells.

    Sums up the last three days here, little frontal rain from that storm system, last evening's rain band fragmented here with virtually no rain and this morning's showers have mostly missed.

     

    It always seems to do that in Irlam - two cells split and it goes around.

     

    I do think the NW has a chance tomorrow, but more likely Monday into Tuesday.

    North West England - Weather chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Looking forward to the next 5 days. Wish I had a bit more elevation, however as a few have said M6 east = snow line. Chorley may be far enough east to just make it.

     

    I'm a bit lost now with the MOD thread. 24hrs ago we were in prime position for a good slider, is that still the case on Tuesday? If so we seem to be in a great position.

     

    Best to ignore the majority of the stuff that's being posted in there at the moment to be honest. Someone's let the kindergarten's onto their PC's.

     

    It's such a volatile situation that nobody knows where it will snow yet, best to wait until Sunday 18Z to have a decent grasp.

    • Like 2

    North West England - Weather chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Yes, the cold air is digging in this region now and should rapidly start to turn from sleet & hail to snow as the day goes on.

     

    Irish Sea is looking quite convective too, and can see Anvils moving in, probably all hail at the moment, but that cold air is digging in.

    Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM 0Z in its latter stages looks to me to show the largest extension of the Siberian high this winter thus far. I don't think it has been modelled that extensive at any stage.

     

    That's right WH - I think this is more important to look at on future runs now to see if the trend carries on. You can see the Siberian High moving west quite a lot and pushing out any mild sectors, which will only be good for us in the long run.

    • Like 1
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    Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr. Astro

    I do despair sometimes. What is it the more experienced posters say (JH, SM, NS, TEITS to name but a few)? Get the cold in first, worry about specifics, ie snow, later.

    It's Friday - it's getting colder - snow and disturbances sometimes are a T0 forecast. Sit back and enjoy the ride, it's only weather and I for one have not waxed down the kid's sledge for nothing.

     

    Take heed at this post people & the one AJ just posted.

     

    I made the same mistake, without looking at the charts this morning, jumped into the MOD thread and seen some members posting like the world had just ended.

     

    Don't make the fatal mistake of following each run & thinking that's it.

     

    To my surprise, I have looked at the charts this morning and they look fine. Cold & Snowy for a lot of places, just listen to the more experienced posted IMO, I have read some on here today saying "Coldish" and "rain for most" - which simply isn't true, whether this is knee jerk, or just plain can't read the charts, although i'm thinking it's the latter, as when I see these kind of posts, they are never backed up with sufficient data or charts, wonder why?

     

    Anyways, right in the near time frame we have snow risks Midland North:

     

    uksnowrisk.png

     

    Sunday see's chances down the East and into Anglia:

     

    uksnowrisk.png

     

    Tuesday see's quite a country wide event:

     

    uksnowrisk.png

     

    uksnowrisk.png

     

    Wednesday see's snow risk for the North:

     

    uksnowrisk.png

     

    Temperatures are VERY cold, not coldish:

     

    ukmintemp.png

     

    -15C into Scotland

     

    ukmintemp.png

     

    -10C Northern England

     

    ukmintemp.png

     

    -11C Northern England

     

    ukmintemp.png

     

    Were now well over a week of very cold weather:

     

    ukmintemp.png

     

    FI reaches -10C into Scotland

     

    ukmintemp.png

     

     

    Knee Jerk reactions are not welcome.

    • Like 34

    Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    the ship is sinking, much preferred the 06z version.

    gfsnh-0-192.png?12

     

    I don't see what you mean with the ship is sinking? What is sinking? It's a UK Cold High, and after the snow would bring very cold temperatures to the UK, and the lying snow from earlier in the week would probably remain.

     

    It's a very snowy outlook, followed by a very cold outlook for at least a week.

     

    Rather some can't read the charts properly (Not a dig at you Karlos), or are expecting another 2010 event X10.

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The key difference with 12z GFS versus it's preceding run is the modelling of a closed circulation and moreover, running this further south. Despite the initial awkward and finely balanced forecast rain-sleet-snow phase in much of south, this current prognosis would then readily entrain colder boundary layer around N-NW flank and - depending on how this phases with occlusion remnants/forcing/WBFL - would readily give snow for a while as the centre moves S. However, it duplicates various earlier ENS members so albeit a plausible outcome, remains but one of many - some more nuanced than others.

     

    Thanks Ian for your input, a little bit more of a headache for Exeter then wrt differentiating solutions across the board.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just commentating on that chart at that time. This ties in with the 0z take and is a possibility. I did say that at the time that it was just one run. Surely we are just commentating on the current output and I don't see a problem in that, otherwise we wouldn't have much to say. Though I suspect if I said it showed a snow fest for the whole UK you would not have brought this up?

     

    Showers battering the east coast around D8+:  attachicon.gifgfs-2-198.png

     

    I don't think you get AJ's point.

     

    It's not so much what it is showing, but as Fergie said yesterday with his "ad nauseum" comment (Which was rather good) - There is ZERO point in posting these charts for something so far away, as verification levels are just ridiculously low, so therefore there is no real need to be discussing where it will snow, and who will get snow, as I guarantee on the next GFS run, it will be different again.

     

    Might as well post a CFS chart 1000 hours away showing where it will rain...

    • Like 3
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