Dr. Astro
-
Posts
375 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Dr. Astro
-
-
Reports from Northern ireland suggest heavy rain in some parts, so there it is unlikely that low lying areas will see snow, however there are reports are very strong winds and thunderstorms.
Yes, although on it's Eastern Flank, it remains cold (See West Scotland)
-
Breakfast in Glossop!
Brilliant haha !
-
Tweet from Matt Hugo with Radar...
https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/560883249678155776
Said earlier.. Peak District will do great out of this.
* Very Heavy *
-
looks like rain down here on those maps, but its difficult to be sure about that
Yes, will be rain for you.
-
How long we thinking before the good stuff starts? Looks good over Isle of Man already
Late tonight I would suspect, if anything happens !
-
thats a little insulting don't you think?
Depends if you are Mr / Mrs Sensetive?
-
Temps worrying me a little now, crept up to 2c... it's been 0-1c all day.
Dew point is starting to fall now though, forget temps, it's all about the dew point./
-
A YELLOW FLASH warning of Snow has been issued for parts of Northern Ireland.
A polar low has developed near Scoland and is expected to track over eastern areas of NI this evening, this was unexpected hence a flash warning has been issued. This is likely to bring an area of snow for Co Antrim and Co Down, which could be heavy. Accumulations of 2 - 5 cm are likely in a short space of time and accumulations of up to 10cm locally and over the hills. -
I am totally baffled by everything!!
Everyone seems to be contradicting everyone else. For instance you say that above and yet Diane Oxberry forecast doesn't concur.
Some say it's a polar low, others don't.
Some say it will track this way, others say that way.
Someone said SW Midlands is the sweet spot and yet Jo Farrow says it will rapidly decay as it goes inland. Therefore SW Midlands won't be a sweet spot.
It's a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Yep Kev,
I'd ignore to be honest. Not only are Polar Lows still quite a mystery, the tracks are also erratic.
In this flow though, it looks like it will enter the Irish Sea and track through the NW as per charts & forecasts, but it will do, whatever it wants to do.
Also, it IS a Polar Low, confirmed by the Met Office, you know, those PROFESSIONAL weather forecasters as opposed to some Amatuer ones claiming they are not so sure...
It's like Einstein telling you 1+1 = 2, but Joe Bloggs tells you it's 3.
-
Me too
Please sir, can I have some more?
Is this based on the interpretation that it is a polar low? Would a non-polar low behave differently in terms of longevity?
It is a Polar Low, and they decay very quickly. A normal LP front or trough can push right through, IE - Like today.
-
Those in the Peak District areas should be rubbing their hands together, Buxton, Macc etc are in for a real treat.
-
Once it is over land, it will decay fairly rapidly
Yep, they always do.
I see it going through the Irish Sea, into NW England, affecting N Wales, NW England, Peak District and parts of yorkshire, before moving south into the Midlands and decaying.
Those in Buxton, Castleton, Glossop could see some very large falls.
-
2
-
-
Yup, just as I thought earlier re the track, NW England, N.Wales, into the midlands and through the SE.
Love watching these, very exciting, associated low dew points within the system are a big plus.
Temps can be 5C but if that dew point is negative, and the intensity, your looking at snow. Not sleet, or rain.
I can imagine the Peak District are going to be VERY deep after this crosses through.
-
Yes looks east of the track the ECM thinks, think Cheshire could do well if it doesn't fizzle out in the Irish Sea.
Last one I seen fizzled out and lost all it's intensity really quickly and didn't really drop anything.
One before that that I remember dropped a foot of snow, so it all really depends on how intense it is, usually by now though, you can see it start to fizzle.
Should be a good watch !
-
I feel this feature may catch some people by surprise.. I'm pretty sure it's further east.. will drag cold air with it, and probably via means of evaporative cooling it will deliver snow too.. I'm not saying we'll get a foot of snow, but I'm saying Northwest England might well see something off this.
Agreed, following the track, it's further East, heading into Irish Sea and NW England.
Let hops temps / dew's are OK.
-
An interesting bonus feature this Polar Low
Certainly will be for some...
You can see it's intensity here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=
Just NW of Scotland.
-
What about Scotland or does it depend on the track?
Really depends on the track but I think Glasgow could be on the *edge* of the system, so you might be lucky.
It appears looking at data & sat it could track into the Irish Sea, picking up more moisture.
-
1
-
-
Thanks for them Graphics Paul...
Can guarantee, someone, somewhere is going to get a dumping from this feature, almost blizzard like conditions.
If I was in N.Wales,and parts of the NW / Mids North, i'd be getting twitchy.
-
2
-
-
Well regardless, it won't be cold enough for the most part.
South of mid Wales, agreed.
-
Only going by the ECM, doesn't show anything really for those areas, goes through Ireland and into Wales and the SW.
I'll eat my hat if the ECM predicts it's track 100% spot on.
-
3
-
-
Well it's only the SW and Wales that the precip will affect really. All areas will become less cold overnight, although northeast England will cling on to the colder air.
Eh? On the Western side they usually track, throwing off a lot of convection in the Irish Sea and into the NW.
I have seen one of these deliver a Foot of snow in the NW.
-
1
-
-
Wet Bulb 850 pot temps will be 4 or 5, dew points will be positive for the SW, it will not be cold enough for decent snow at lower levels. Wales will have more favourable dew points. Warmer air will be associated with this. The ECM shows it clearly.
Higher ground will get a pasting.
Apologies, I didn't realise you was talking about the SW as up North we are negative on values.
-
See my above post. The air will be less cold overnight, high ground in Wales and the SW could see a fair bit of snow. Mostly rain and sleet for lower levels.
This was picked up by the ECM, it isn't something that has appeared out of nowhere.
It's a cold unstable airmass, it wont have warm air wrapped.
They rarely deliver rain.
-
what is the predicted track of this please, if anyone knows lol
Hard to tell yet, they are so erratic.
Looking like through West Scotland, NW England, NW wales, and through the Midlands to SE...
Albeit that's just a track i'm projecting, I doubt it would ever make it as far because they lose intensity quickly.
Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Me either. Can see maybe 70-75mph gusts...
Roger - which mesoscale charts are you referring to.