Summer Snow

Heavy graupel shower here has left everything white...first heavy shower today after just flurries since this morning.. hopefully get some heavier snowy stuff overnight and in morning but good start

Flurries blowing in the wind all morning.....hopefully showers pep up later... Thursday and Friday still uncertain....GFS usually the model that powers Atlantic though has front stalling over Ireland with high pressure to east really flexing its muscles and keeping us cold through weekend....ECM similar but pushes front through more aggressively .... UKMO powers Atlantic in and in mild flow by Friday .....ICON halfway house....must be a nightmare for Met Eireann and UK Met .....the front could power through and bring spell of snow then milder air, it could stall over Ireland giving prolonged snow for some parts or it might not even reach the east coast.... hard one to call ....but I am leaning towards a stalling front .... fingers crossed

Yeah GFS is a super run.. stays cold throughout...UKMO good for Thursday getting milder on Friday...GEM was best this morning now pushes milder air through quickly by Friday.....lets see what ECM brings but this will chop and change for days to come

ECM snow depth charts below for Thursday, Friday and Saturday ECM like UKMO pushes front further east than previous run but this will likely to and fro for another few days. GEM is a peach and keeps the cold air in situ for weekend. GFS a halfway house... Still a long way out so liable to more changes.. hopefully snow between now and then for some. Met Eireann talking about moderate accumulations now for Tuesday so an upgrade this morning from them in shorter term..although they mention rain,sleet or snow showers in forecast for next few days . Would have thought with the cold uppers involved these showers would be mainly snow.

Charts for end of next week have a Jan 1982 look about them as things stand....24-36 hours of snow with a stalling front and gale force winds ... I would say a weather warning will be going up early next week as if the charts are looking similar to tonight's

GFS on same page as ECM now.. maybe even better.....front stalls over Ireland from Thursday morning until Friday afternoon.....next front coming in makes it to west coast and gets pushed back out in to Atlantic as pressure builds again to our north east .....Met Eireann at 9.30 on RTE talking about widespread significant snow Thursday in to Friday mentioning Ireland being battleground between Atlantic fronts and blocking high to the east with Ireland still sitting in the colder air.....UK Met also only give a small chance of front reaching South west England......long way to go but this is shaping up very nicely.....also risk of snow falls up to then but currently amounts shown to be small on models for here but expect surprises to pop up .....exciting times.....and to top it all off looking like cold could dig in again the following week courtesy of scandi high ....hard to keep up ha

Yes not to be taken literally but good to see at this range...many changes to come I am sure

These are ECM snow depth charts Wednesday to Saturday ....more or less all areas covered at some point....northern areas better later

ECM leaves basically the whole Island covered in snow Thursday and Friday ....smaller amounts up to then mainly in the east....

Never easy is it ha ha.....too far east we get milder air quickly following and too far West we miss out....easterlies usually very good here so I am hopeful to see a covering of snow from showers earlier in period before the Atlantic front hits later. UKMO and GEM look good for stalling front Thursday with snow also reaching the north so everyone in the game.....GFS gives several hours of snow before front pushes northeast with milder air following but I suspect it is too quick so we will see....looking forward to see if ECM sticks to it's guns from this morning .....any warm up if any over weekend looking short lived looking at trends for scandi heights to quickly build for following week ... ..lots to play for short and long term ......I am sure there will be surprise snow falls earlier in week also for some areas maybe not directly in the firing line of an easterly..... and some will miss out but that's always the way....even storm Emma did not blanket the whole Island and that was extreme.

LOL ....was thinking the same myself....if they had held firm for one more day, they would have been getting the gold star award with back slaps all round, assuming their models are correct of course...they have still been very good this winter in fairness and not too far off the mark on most occasions especially with very unusual and conflicting background signals SSW etc ....not living in UK but follow their updates daily which gives a broad idea of what weather patterns to expect in southern Ireland...

UK Met latest forecast hot off the shelves.....only a small chance that far South West of England sees snow or rain from front on Thursday.....NI not mentioned. that strongly suggests they see front stalling over southern / central Ireland on Thursday and not making much progress east......let's see how this pays out ....

Not a done deal yet Rochey but certainly heading in right direction....GFS 6z now joining the party......just a little more correction and we are there...enjoy your days off and hopefully snow for you to enjoy......Dublin should do well as is normally the case with easterlies...

Absolutely Ronan....It only happens every rarely, but most of Ireland best snowfalls have come from Atlantic fronts stalling over us against a very cold block to the east ....Later next week is one of those rare opportinities....not a given but confidence is rising....will be fascinating to watch it all unfold over coming days

As I thought, Models already starting to firm up that Atlantic is not going to barrel through as previously shown....GEM, ECM and to lesser extent UKMO stalling the fronts over Ireland later next week with pressure building over Scandinavia.....any milder interlude if any looks fairly short lived......ECM snow accumulation charts showing most of Ireland covered in snow from 144 to 240, even though 850hpa temps are rising, as continental feed at surface still in place, with colder reload incoming....long way to run on this yet but increasingly models are coming in to line that Atlantic will be up against it....in the shorter term GEM showing much better snow shower distribution while other models are disappointing compared to amounts forecast for Britain....however shower activity will pop up with some lucky and others missing out, before potentially more widespread snowfall later in the week....brilliant seeing this all unfold.....also noticed 850hpa temps are projected lower next week than previously modelled with many places under -10 to -11 uppers....ground temps could struggle to reach freezing under those conditions and with low dew points, any snow that falls should hang around in most places......exciting week coming up.....

Not as unstable an airmass this time with upper air temps and thicknesses not as low as the 2018 beast. Although todays charts look more unstable to my eyes then last nights so room for upgrades. ,.. Wind direction and strength also different ... Often straight easterly shown early next week whereas an east to north east or north east wind brings longer sea track for showers to form. Likewise east to southeast for favoured areas.... ....however winds will likely switch around at times from E to ESE or ENE next week so showers or streamers will set up differently in each scenario so wouldn't rule out snow anywhere on eastern side of Ireland. Winds get quite strong Monday night and in to Tuesday which will push showers further across the island.... Thursday could be interesting and as we get nearer I do believe we will have a snowier breakdown than currently being modelled.....

Depends on wind direction.....showers could drift on to east cork coast and hit Cork city early next week. .....at this stage showers do not look to be as heavy or as widepsread as Beast in 2018 so expectations should be kept lower....north Cork likely dryer than South Cork as showers run along the coast Thursday could bring significant snow to Cork if system coming from West slides against the block to our north....if it does not come in at favourable angle though likely brief period of snow then rain... ..too early to call that one yet ....a week is a long time in weather and it may not even impact Ireland and could steer to our South..... Edit ....I assumed you are in Cork going by your title ha

10 degrees here today. Not expecting to see that for a while ....also looking at latest UK Met update....obviously they only cover NI, but reading between the lines, I am doubting if those Atlantic fronts make much progress next week. They could end up in France ha

That is some update......MET Office not seeing much inroads of fronts from Atlantic next week, maybe later in the period....Basically cold out to early March with snow risk continuing with chance of miler interludes.....sounds good

I get ya.... I remember the times when ME would forecast 2 or 3 days ahead - even in the mildest winters you were waiting for a change at short notice ......although in this case I am unsure when upcoming cold spell will end....yesterday it looked like Thursday.....now not so sure... if that low Thursday slides we could be in a prolonged freeze....

Don't write this spell off just yet guys......surprises will pop up mark my words......this is not your normal Scandi high type easterly, it is a very unusual set up and models will continue to pick up new developments over coming days......it is fascinating watching this all unfold and how the models are dealing with this rare synoptic situation.....already today there are upgrades in terms of depth of cold and longetivity of upcoming spell.....expect many more changes before the spell even kicks off in earnest on Sunday.....some of Irelands best blizzards have come from unusual set ups such as this. It looks like the Atlantic is going to try get in at some stage next week and depending on the angle of attack and orientation of high pressure to our north, we could see a quick breakdown or a very snow covered landcsape with cold digging in.....all to play for and as things stand we are in with a very good chance of something really good.....

Models this morning leaning towards a much snowier attack from the Atlantic mid next week bringing Ireland very much in to the game .....and at this range I expect models are still overplaying the extent of milder air incursions......looks a dryish easterly up to that point though for us, but likely some disturbances will show up in the flow earlier in the week than is currently shown.... great watching all this unfold

Yes based on current charts it breaks down quickly to rain around Thursday .....however these lows could slide in to the block closer to the time and give us a nice blizzard (8 days away so lots of chopping and changing to come)....hopefully plenty of snow between Sunday and Wednesday before that.....charts are all over the the place for later next week. UKMO is very different to ECM for example...0z GFS kept the cold going in to the following week with sliders whereas latest run quickly breaks down the cold spell next week.....We will have a better idea come Saturday or Sunday how any breakdown occurs and whether it is snowy or a brief snow to rain event

To be taken with a pinch of salt this far out but gives us an idea that those southerly tracking lows are producing snow even when uppers rise to - 3 or - 4 due to entrenched cold and low dew points etc....Met Eireann update is great this morning especially for the east but I would think many in with a shout from Sunday onwards.. ....not your typical sunshine and snow shower set up at times...

Looking good for an easterly spell from Sunday until possible battleground event maybe Wednesday or Thursday.....looking rather dry for Ireland at present until then, but still 5 days away before it commences so hopefully as we get closer disturbances in the flow / streamers are picked up.....while main pattern should be set, charts will not look the same come Sunday so hopefully upgrades to come...