Summer Snow
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Would expect there may also be snow risk on Friday and Sat as the trough drops South to introduce the cold easterly winds. As this occurs uppers are circa - 5 over Ireland so any precipitation would be of wintry nature before the colder air ibvades for Sunday with this all depending on shape and direction of the trough pulling away.....snow showers should then become more widespread during Sunday and early next week but again models vary with some signalling showers only peppering east coast, or alternatively a front close to south coast giving outbreaks of snow in South and dryer further north....so lot to be resolved for Sunday and next week yet......probably all leading to some kind of battleground snowfall later next week which could see the cold spell breaking down eventually....but always the chance that the cold air wins out and fronts retreat South again prolonging the cold......all to play for as long as most models are correct and GFS is not leading the way, in which case a very brief cold snap would occur before turning milder early next week.... GFS does seem on its own here though and goes against UK Met longer range thinking.....so for now I would go with the longer cold spell followed by battleground scenario
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Very tasty looking charts this evening if cold snowy weather is your thing.....ECM which didn't want to know yesterday now has a northerly and low uppers in by Friday and then turning even colder by Sunday through to the end of the run with bitter east to north east winds. Looks like it is setting up a battleground snow fall for following weekend but that is a long way off .....UKMO, both GFS models as well as the other models all bringing in the very cold air for next week....getting excited now as I felt all along that this winter was building up to a big event.. and it seems to be really firming up now with everyone in the game.....
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Hope you guys up north see some snow later..... Re models, 00z runs all end up with one thing.....a deep cold easterly next weekend......they take different routes to get there and timings vary, but all roads lead to Rome it seems... GFS much quicker than UKMO and ECM.....half way house,timing wise will prob be likely outcome ❄❄❄
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Yes eastern areas could see some snow tomorrow. ...on Sunday and in to Monday snow risk extends further north ....earlier this week the models suggested that lows this weekend would barrel through in milder air....now sliding in cold air...same could happen mid next week...... models all over the place but still expect sjgnificant cold spell to hit between 3rd and 5th Feb.....
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Quite a difference between the two models alright ...snow in North on GFS and snow in east / south east on Para.......slight difference in track on a global scale having major different outcomes on our tiny Island....This could go down to 6 to 12 hours before we have better idea and even then liable to changes....as we saw last weekend
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Very wet for many next few days unfortunately... however Models starting to firm up on much colder weather setting in during next week.....still chance of snow for some over weekend more likely in northern parts if precipitation pushes far enough north. Maybe also high ground in eastern areas such as Wicklow mountains etc.....but this winter has been full of surprises so can't rule anything out.....longer term though an exciting February imcoming by looks of things......possibly cold spells also in to March with how lag effects of SSW impact aka 2013...but that's a long way off. ..exciting times .....
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Balmy out there when walking tonight compared to recently......trying to avoid puddles of water in 9 degrees C tonight rather than trying to avoid a slip on icy roads in sub zero temps .....only wore my coat in case it rained, could have walked around in a light sweater.....any way, an upgrade tonight from both long range UK Met forecast and the models.....northern parts could even see sleet or snow this weekend or early next depending on how things fall.....certainly an interesting winter so far and about to get even more interesting I feel.....I Still think somewhere between 3rd and 6th Feb is when proper winter spell arrives although certainly can't rule out some marginal / temporary snowfalls in more northern parts before then......
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Lawns are green again here this morning for the first time since last Thursday........thawed quick enough really.....8c here now and rising .....when the last cold spell ended we had to wait around 9 / 10 days for things to set up favourably.....and looking at current charts we are likely looking at another 8-10 days to get another proper cold shot apart from a colder blip this weekend.....loads of time left for decent cold and snow and I still think this winter so far has been the building blocks towards a more notable very cold & snowy spell......background signals leading in that direction in my opinion ....somewhere between 3rd and 6th Feb would be my call to see pattern change
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I said earlier in the week that I expected a lot of people to be pleasantly surprised with this cold spell....glad many have seen some of the white stuff....in south Kilkenny which wouldn't exactly be normally in the firing line from a northerly, we have seen snow falling Wednesday afternoon, Friday morning, Saturday evening and again this morning with snow lying in the garden since Friday with another frosty night to come tonight......I see much of England and Wales also got decent snow last night and today.....milder from Tuesday but I suspect not for long....this winter is ticking along nicely after the 2 week cold spell a few weeks ago and I am getting more confident that the best is yet to come.....
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Looks further north alright ......expected to divot and slide south east wards later...Hopefully everyone sees some of the snow action tonight and tomorrow......I have snow in my garden since yesterday morning here in South Kilkenny from a front that was not forecast to come anywhere near us - so radar and lamppost watching from here on in is the best bet ....
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Model output discussion - into the last third of January
Summer Snow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Nice to see the snowy pictures from Ulster....keep them coming.......I believe we will have more to come over the weekend with southern and central parts also getting in on the action hopefully...... - 3.5 degrees here this morning with snow cover still in place from yesterday's surprise fall....roads are lethal .....enjoying this cold spell
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Surely is Big Lad..... just goes to show ...get the cold air in place and surprises can happen....no model nor Met Eireann showed a band of heavy snow pushing accross Munster amd south Leinster this morning ...you guys up north should see some decent snow over weekend.....Colder upper air temps sinking South all the time now.....