Summer Snow

Hopefully you get plenty more during this spell....encouraging that showers are already turning to snow with colder air incoming tomorrow.....I think some will be pleasantly surprised over next few days....

This is the pink blob north of Belfast .... surely snow there for some

Net Weather Radar showing snow showers in parts of Ulster especially north of Belfast....any reports?

Colder upper air temps sinking South tomorrow so showers should turn increasingly to snow during the day and continue over the weekend.....most of the showers in the north and west ....maybe more organised band during Saturday night or early Sunday ....severe frosts too up to Monday night......not a bad outlook for next 3 or 4 days before milder weather arrives again during late Monday night or Tuesday.....hopefully just a blip before more sustained cold returns for late Jan / early Feb....plenty of winter left and vortex not expected to recover anytime soon...

Here in South Kilkenny rain turned to sleet from 11am and then turned to snow for a while between 2pm and 3pm .. big fluffy flakes but wet and no accumulations... back to sleet now as intensity has eased off and should clear away in the next hour or so.... I would imagine high ground nearby has a nice covering and the Wicklow mountains will be pasted.. don't try drive up though unless you want a fine ha..... temperature last night was 11 degrees at midnight and was still 9 degrees at 8 am then dropped quickly to 3 degrees by noon and to just under 2 degrees in the heavier precipitation earlier.. ...roads will be lethal tonight as temps drop further and the saturated ground feeezes...

Met Eireann forecast for tomorrow night on their website mentions snow on high ground in the Irish sea ....thats a new one Anyway, models show cold out to Monday with snow chances in places and sharp frosts st night....unless models flip soon, looks like turning milder Monday evening / night or Tuesday...but for how long....

One to watch for sure....also UKMO and GFS have -5 upper air line well South end of the week...ECM messier....if UKMO and GFS are correct expected snow chances out to weekend either in showers or other disturbances ....still think any warm up if it occurs will be short lived... Para is a beauty

Yes turning colder by midweek and staying cold out to the weekend with snow likely in places.....all up for grabs after that but wouldn't be surprised if any warm up is brief and high pressure to north could even push the Atlantic systems further south with a more prolonged cold spell setting up....wouldn't rule anything out....

Slight upgrades this afternoon......that system on Tuesday further south so wouldn't be surprised to see some snow on northern edge as it clears away.....UKMO with better blocking which should keep incoming systems on a more southerly track maybe similar to GFSP... hopefully ECM can continue the upgrades.....I expect snow and frost to be in the forecasts from midweek to next weekend. Hopefully models continue to push systems further south over coming days allowing better snow chances.....all to play for still and if we can get to next weekend with cold still in place and systems taking a more southerly track with better heights appearing to our north or north East, the longer term outlook could look a lot more wintry......could still all go Pete tong but still optimistic for better looking charts over coming days.

Only way is up so ha.......still looks like turning colder from Tuesday night and staying cold out to end of next week based on current output .. . with snow chances increasing over following days especially for northern areas but runners could potentially bring longer spells of sleet or snow to southern parts later in the week......that will do me for now ......get the cold in and hopefully we will see upgrades. Charts are going to change later next week either way, so not going to get hung up on the doom and gloom that may or may not happen ....if it breaks down there will be more chances and it may not break down at all ....models could have general idea right but everything could get shunted further south keeping us in the cold air ....or further north meaning much milder .....wouldn't rule anything in or out but still hopeful that the cards will fall right for us

Amd just like that....Much colder uppers on GFS 18z as well as control run & Para.....Op goes off on one after day 10 whereas control keeps the cold in place .... but again goes to show that a very cold northerly and snow especially for those further north cettainly cannot be ruled out as we go through next week......day 10 and beyond not worth worrying about at this stage ......lets get the cold in place first .....

Frustrating alright....having said that we had a recent 2 week cold spell... snow along with frost and ice was in the forecast most of those days...we were unlucky in that when conditions were marginal we had a lot of precipitation of mainly sleet and rain, and when it was cold enough for snow the precipitation was often light and scattered.....still, even in the southeast, I have had falling snow on 3 days since late December .... a dusting on one of those days and a light covering on another....as well as numerous frosts and ice, even feezing fog......conditions will continue to get less marginal with regards to sea temps and Europe/ Scandinavia will be colder this time round.....even the pros in UK Met believe the models are under estimating the upcoming cold spell and logetivity......yesterday models were leaning towards a mild South westerly most of next week....they now see a colder northerly setting in late Tuesday onwards......and in the main keep it cold out to day 10 and beyond to varying degrees.....I really expect more upgrades to come once the cold sets in and models get a handle on positioning of arctic blocks etc....plenty of reasons to be positive....the snow that fell in parts of midlands of England today should have fallen out in the north sea and Holland according to models only a few days ago.... ..I think that says it all..... many changes to come and we are in a much better position for many years for those changes to be favourable for us.....let's get the cold in early next week and I am sure models at that stage will look very different to what they are showing now for later next week....

Even by Friday we will only have a better idea what will happen early next week.....anything more than 3 or 4 days ahead at present is liable to big changes in the model output....and that is likely to continue for a while ......I think the general pattern is set with high pressure to northwest and over the poles but how low pressure systems interact in our vicinity and beyond as well as impacts of further downwellig etc will determine if we get cool, cold or very cold .....or rain or snow ....with models flip flopping all over the place

Model wobble this morning I think....have seen it many times. GFS very good? GEM very good and UKMO and ICON an improvement... ..I expect upgrades again over next few runs... Hopefully starting with ECM tonight... ...not sure why it happens, but in build up to a cold spell there is usually one day when models all flip together and then slowly come back in line....

Not sure if the 12z runs will be the defining moment.....I think models will gradually shift pattern South over next several days with colder weather still on the cards by mid next week or soon after......even before the BFTE in 2018 there was one day about 6 or 7 days out where all the models flipped to show the high pressure over Scandi dropping too far south with dry cold weather for us and the frigid snow making easterlies pushed to our South.....models came back to original idea the following day of cold easterlies over UK amd Ireland ...and then upgraded over following few days .......models have flipped so much today I dont buy it and think they will gradually revert back to cold.....albeit maybe delayed by a few days....even the 2018 BFTE only started producing proper cold and snow showers on the Tuesday, a few days later than initially progged.......

Quite a temperature range today....parts of the North East only 1 and 2 degrees C at 1.30pm while temps are between 11 and 12 degrees C in Cork and Kerry

Probably sailed with the short timeframe involved....could back a little further West, seen as a few days ago this precipitation was meant to be out in the north sea .....but unlikely enough for this island, possibly Antrim and Down if it does back further West.. .....longer term firming up on a cold to very cold spell kicking off early next week .....confidence growing now....especially as anomaly charts back up the operationals showing the Greenland blocking ......all good

Yes it seems to be coming together.....if come Wednesday orThursday , models are still showing wintry nirvana from early to mid next week, I think we can really start getting excited.. ...best to give it another few days but confidence is rising

Trends would suggest it is more likely than not.... will be ups and downs in models as usual.....but once you stand back from the variable run to run hysteria, everything points to a much colder last third of January, Possibly significant cold depending on how the dice falls....with continued warming in the strat I would expect further cold spells in Feb and likely even in to March....no guarantees in weather and things could change but looking good in my opinion where we stand at this time......even next week is likely to be milder up to midweek and then turning cooler to rather cold as week progresses .....

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Wasn't expecting it to get as cold here tonight. - 5 degrees at midnight....still a clear starry sky with severe frost.....temps across southeast still widely between - 1 and -5 looking at current weather observations....

- 3 c in South Kilkenny....beautiful clear and frosty night nce again ....last very cold one for a while though .....

Beautiful winters day here in South Kilkenny....blue skies and not a puff of wind......frost and ice remaining on ground away from direct sunlight.....looks like another frosty night to come and possibly foggy before it gradually turns milder.....great 2 weeks of weather just gone and hopefully next cold spell just around the corner......

Brrrrrr......amyone any idea where the lowest temps occured last night?

I notice the push bike hasn't moved either......too icy I guess Baltic out there but I love this weather....hope the upcoming milder spell is just a blip