Summer Snow

Ties in with the latest EC46 released on Thursday ...... hopefully we see at least one spell of cold wintry weather before Spring arrives.

ECM Day 10 Groundhog day - at least in the movie there was a snowstorm on the way.....in reality for us, it is more of the same with high pressure seemingly glued to our shores for the foreseeable....

Interesting....this model never bought in to the failed pre Xmas cold spell and proved correct.....and has performed well since then also.....might be on to something hopefully

Yes very amplified and continuing to show two fingers to ECM and GEM which both want the high pressure to collapse at this stage with Atlantic taking over....

Yes and with November being an Autumn month it means that amazingly we have had no named storms this winter, which we are now half way through..... With charts like this shown for the foreseeable, it looks like that won't change anytime soon.....

Some mega blocked cold ensemble members in this 18z suite... . This number 4 is the pick of the bunch but quite a number of cold runs in there .....Best set in a while and some showing favourable changes in the 192-240 timeframe .... hopefully we see further upgrades tomorrow

At this stage I think most of us would take a week or so of cold snowy weather in Feb even if the rest of the month was mild.......been a hard slog this winter..... keeping an eye though on height rises to our northeast which I still think might be the best chance for pattern to evolve to something Colder......seems a very slow moving pattern at present so perhaps if we can get blocking to amplify more favourably, we may see a more prolonged cold spell in due course....plenty of time yet for things to turn in our favour......

Might be our way out of current set up to a colder pattern......some of the 0z GEFS and 0z op hinted at this earlier....once the pattern remains amplified we have a chance of things falling more favourably further down the line.....hopefully ecm jumps on board over coming runs as currently it is hinting at high gradually sinking southeast in later frames which would leave us in a very poor position heading in to end of Jan / Last month of winter proper

Been watching GFS building high pressure to far northeast over last few runs.....if this becomes a growing trend,it could help push the pattern further West in time perhaps?

This high pressure with mild upper air has now drawn in a lot of cloud here in the southeast.... Was -1c yesterday morning and frosty but once sun got going the temp quickly shot up to 10 degrees Was -1c again last night when going to bed at 11.30pm and it was white and frosty again. Woke up this morning and its 5c and cloudy with frost long cleared....no sign of any fog that was forecast, just cloudy skies Once Cloud gets trapped under these areas of high pressure in winter it is hard to shift so I expect rest of the week to be murky and cloudy... yuk. At least it will be mainly dry but no sign of proper winter cold and snow any time soon..... PS...I was driving yesterday morning to North Tipperary with work and it was amazing how the temperatures fluctuated between the valleys and hiller areas....one minute I would be driving through a frosty landscape in temp of 0 c and few minutes later it would be 6c or 7c in a hiller area and frost free..... with temp fluctuating like this throughout my journey in clear blue skies.....

GFS has history of churning out a solution at 10-15 days, dropping it in mid range, and then picking it up again in shorter range....the very cold charts GFS was regularly churning out last week for around 17th Jan were based on the same / similar evolution we see today on 6z at just 6 days away. . for that reason it may be on to something .......Jan 2013 we saw a sudden flip to cold at 5-6 days range.....we are over due another cold flip......especially after the flip to mild just before Xmas.....funnily enough in Dec 2012 we had what looked like a nailed on cold spell dashed at close range also before that sudden flip to cold in mid Jan 2013........eerily similar On the other hand 6z could just be a rogue run but it certainly generates extra interest in today's 12z runs for sure....

GEM agrees. ECM says no ....... lots to be resolved methinks

Yes was looking back at charts from last years early Jan cold spell when we had winds from the north and the east.......af face value charts look excellent but the 850hpa temps were pathetic..... much better cold to tap in to this year....

If GFS charts are correct then yes likely to be a frosty high for the most part....GFS in this run again showing sub zero temps most nights next week.....if ECM is correct with high centred more to our south west then it is likely to be mild cloudy high

Had a light covering of snow here also last night.....has been quite a wintry week which did not look likely during new year period when temps were up to 14 degrees...... We had snow falling for about three hours Monday night from 10.30pm despite temp being 9 degrees at 6pm......likewise yesterday morning temp was 8 degrees and we had snow showers last night.... a few lovely frosty nights in between with blue clear skies by day.....not a bad week considering

No snow reports coming in yet.....bit of a,slow burner tonite?

Northern amd Western areas most likely to see a few cms of snow tomorrow night into Friday but anywhere could see a dusting I would imagine....a little less cold over the weekend and next week looks drier with high pressure taking hold MOD Thread has come alive again as GFS is suggesting Greenland heights from around day 11 or 12 but way out in lala land....

I remember GFS was also showing similar charts as high pressure started to build in third week of December - showing HP meandering around our shores right out to 15 days....before New signal was picked up soon after and HP ridged north almost delivering a potent cold spell, albeit some places did see some snow around Christmas time.....not beyond possible that a similar signal will emerge soon but with hopefully a better outcome for decent cold spell to follow.....second bite of the cherry and all that .....

Some lovely snow videos there.....Nice to see .....

Been snowing in south kilkenny for last 2 hours or so but ground too wet to lay. Nice to see though....hard to believe temps were 9 degrees just a few hours beforehand....

GFS showing high pressure meandering around UK and Ireland out to end of the run.....would be dubious about this.......in third week of December as high pressure built over us several GFS and ECM runs showed similar right out to 10-15 days ......(remember Met Office prediction of cold and frosty Xmas)... in reality, and at short enough notice, pressure built north after several days with Atlantic trying to undercut and we were very close to something very wintry (albeit some places did see some snow around Xmas time before the mild air won out)....... these patterns often have a habit of repeating during a winter season, and sometimes it takes a few bites of the cherry before getting proper cold to our shores....wouldn't be too downbeat just yet about our chances going forward .... plenty of winter left and those 10-15 day charts will change for better or for worse either way to what they are currently predicting....... so form horse is for pressure nearby within 7 or 8 days, but where if goes thereafter amd subsequent conditions on the ground still very much up for grabs.

Met Eireann 9pm report on their website shows 1c for Mullingar and light sleet ....so temps really plummeting as the front comes south and the cold air digs in

Still 9 degrees here, before the cold air sinks south later...... at least much of this week will feel more seasonal with frost and even a little snow in some spots tonight and over next few days

Yeah was a decent cold spell last year from 27th Dec to around 9th Jan.....had a few days of falling snow here and a light covering on 7th Jan....then another cold spell from 18th Jan to 24th Jan with our best snowfall on 20th and then had another very cold spell in early Feb with some more snow........still time for things to change for the better this winter .....early days

Really disappointing......had ice on windscreen a few mornings since October but only one morning, and that was back in November, where we had a white frosty morning here........the constant rain over Christmas period has been depressing ......but nothing we can do about it......pity after it looked like at one stage we would have a nice cold frosty Xmas and then it looked like a potentially cold and wintry Xmas before it became apparent models had lead us up the garden path..... Still, I never throw in the towel as I have seen many times where weather has flipped at short notice......still 10 or 11 weeks left to get proper wintry weather..... Happy New Year All.....