Summer Snow

Yeah models can't agree on anything beyond 96 hours....so many solutions.... ..but general theme is for weather to turn much colder and there will be snow in places I expect ......but where that will fall and how early it arrives is anyone's guess.....GEM has snow risk for Christmas while GFS is slow burner but gets there just after....ECM had us in the freezer last night to end of the run where as today it brings in milder weather later in the run....UKMO also very cold but only goes to 168 hours ......could be another few days before Christmas period is clearer.. ...probably further north currently favoured initially with snow risk spreading south in time would be my take for our little island as things stand....

Looks like turning much colder by Christmas and beyond.....if things fall right some of us could see snow over the festive season....certainly looking frosty for all, but too early to be sure if / when / where snow will fall....but looks promising at this early stage that some places may be lucky .....we are due a good winter and the timing of it kicking off around Xmas is exciting.....

Great to see the models trending colder again today....I think the models will resolve the overall pattern in next few days , but even then the front arriving from the west will be hard to pin down right up to the day....in the run up to the December 2017 slider here in Ireland , Met Eireann issued a warning for Northern areas 2 days out, then moved the warning area to the North midlands / east 24 hours before event. The outcome was the South midlands / south-east ended up in the sweet spot and I ended up with a dumping of snow which stayed around for a few days. Therefore I wouldn't be getting too caught up on exact placement until much closer to the event....the overall pattern shifting south though is pleasing to see and long may it continue...my own personal view is that the low arriving from the west will be much further south than currently modelled ......the longer term also promises much winter goodies based on the latest NOAA charts, ensembles etc...... What a great time of the year to be seeing these synoptics play out....Best since 2010 - but in 2010 that brilliant cold spell was coming to an end, where as this looks like it's only just the beginning..... fascinating to see it all play out and hopefully we will all see snow at some point to bring some seasonal cheer to all in the UK and Ireland .....

To my eye these charts are encouraging for Blocking to be stronger to our northwest versus previous runs, but would love to know @johnholmes expert view on these latest anomaly charts..

In Southeast Ireland my favourite memories are: 1976 - The long hot summer. Was only a baby but am told it was incredible.... lawns totally burnt and brown in colour 1979 - Several snowfalls in Jan, Feb and March. Too young to remember but am told the St. Patrick's Day parades on 17th March had to be cancelled due to snow. 1982 - January Blizzard and the big freeze which followed with schools closed for over a week. Great memories 1984 - January. Several snowfalls that month from North Westerlies which was very unusual (cold zonality). Some really good snowfalls here in southeast Ireland so can only imagine the depth of snow the North and west of Ireland and Scotland received. 1985 - January and February several snowfalls. Favourite event that winter was when it rained heavily all day one Thursday in Feb. Just before we left school, the rain suddenly turned to heavy snow with huge flakes and despite all the rain that had fallen the ground turned white within minutes. Ended up with about 8 inches of snow which stayed on the ground for 7 or 8 days in the hard freeze which followed. 1986 August hurricane Charlie with trees uprooted everywhere. 1987 January The Beast from the East and the week of bone chillingly cold winds with heavy snowfalls with large drifts....memorable 1991 February and the classic easterly spell which brought heavy snow and ice here over several days 1995 The glorious long hot summer which seemed to last forever 1996 January and December snowfalls from easterlies. Brilliant snowfall in late January and particularly heavy snowfall on New Year's Eve 1996 with the snow remaining on ground for first 10 or 11 days of January 1997 1997 December.Storm on Christmas Eve. Scary walking through Waterford city centre for last of the Crimbo shopping with slates flying everywhere. Huge trees upended in the countryside over a large area. 1999 December. Coming out of the local pub Christmas Eve and it was snowing with a covering on surfaces ....First White Christmas for me....melted quickly enough Christmas Day as showers turned back to sleet and rain.... 2000 December. Snowfall just after Christmas (27th I think) which lasted until New Years Day 2004 White Christmas. Snow showers on a North westerly Christmas Eve and Christmas day with a light covering. 2005 February. First snowy easterly since early 1997 which lasted about a week.... 2009 February another snowy easterly and first time I learned about Sudden Strat Warming which apparently caused the easterly to happen. 2010 January. The cold spell which commenced in mid December 2009 with frosts and a few dustings of snow really intensified in January 2010 with heavy snowfalls up to around mid month. ..Icy.... 2010 November December. Amazing spell brought heavy snow on 27th November with snow cover lasting for 2 full weeks with several top ups. Then after a brief thaw for 6 days another freeze from 16th to 26th December - although snowfall here was light in this second spell, we had a light covering and about 10 days of perma frost and ice. 2013 March / April. Bitterly cold March with numerous snowfalls including a few decent coverings with the biting cold and snow showers lasting for first third of April 2015 January / February storms....one after another it was relentlessly wet and stormy 2017 December. Surprise snowfall from a slider on Sunday 10th December with snow cover remaining for a few days. This despite the fact it rained heavily for all of the previous night, before precipitation turned to snow around 8am and then snowed heavily until mid afternoon before skies cleared and frost set in around dusk....roads and pavements were like ice rinks 2017 March. Wall to wall sunshine for about 2 weeks and tenperatures in the 20's with people walking around in shorts and t shirts .....typically the summer that followed was crap....and March the following year would bring the opposite in weather extremes. 2018 March. Beast from the East and Storm Emma brought copious amounts of snow here which was memorable. Drifts everywhere and it took weeks for all the snow piles to melt....Mini Beast on 17th and 18th March Brought fresh snowfalls here also. The following summer was a belter...very sunny and warm with numerous trips to the beach 2020 Summer. Some brilliant spells of sunshine but also some amazing thunder storms and lightning with spectacular light shows 2021 January. Unexpected heavy snowfall during the second January cold spell which left a decent covering of snow for several days...the Beast in February also gave dustings of snow but dissapointingly was nothing to write home about here..... Hopefully many more memorable weather events lie ahead for us all....

Anyone get a dusting of snow last night ?

Also with the way models are upgrading the cold upper air for the weekend I wouldn't be surprised to see a dusting of snow in more northern areas ......probably be dry here in the southeast but you guys up north could see the first flakes of winter....also going to feel bitterly cold everywhere this weekend in the very strong northerly wind and temps prob just a few degrees above freezing ......still a long way out and possible that heavier band of rain / snow over Britain is edged further west if models are underpaying amplification....

And also lots of throwing toys out of prams, that snow forecast in someones back yard on a previous run for 8 days time has disappeared on latest run.......people never learn especially when it comes to forecasting snow, it is usually only 24 hours out to have any confidence and sometimes nowcasting......February this year being a prime example when the front edging in from the west around 11th was forecast even at 8am that morning to plaster the south east here ....In reality all the snow ended up in west and northwest coastal areas and we ended up with flurries here...... Next week though is looking much colder with frost likely to return from Sunday night..... but how cold and how much snow, if any will fall is still up for grabs.. and models will continue to throw up various outcomes for several days yet ....

Hi All Back out of hibernation for the winter season....looks like the very mild and dry Autumn we have eexperienced here in the south-east is going to finally give way to cooler conditions this weekend. Still a long way off but potentially turning very cold as we go through next week so Autumn may go out with a bang and possibly usher in a cold start to winter......Frost and wintry showers likely to be in the forecast if models have this right.....and maybe a chance of the white stuff for some

Both 18z GFS runs keeping the early March cold spell theme going......looks like there could be some potent cold uppers available to tap into if it comes off....let's see how this develops over coming says.....2013 and 2018 showed us that March can deliver serious cold, snow and even ice days.....both years also had SSW impacts similar to this year,so wouldn't rule a potent cold spell out .....

That is unusual.....I would have thought northwest would have been favoured......just goes to show that snow can occur even with these current "milder" looking synoptics....possibly chance of a colder spell again by early March based on latest model runs ...one to keep an eye on...winter may not be done with us just yet

Met Eireann still going for sleet and snow in places tomorrow night but mainly for higher ground .....temps back up to 7 to 9 c on Thursday

Much milder feel to the weather today .....next week looking mild also .....looks like it will be late Feb or March before next cold shot, if it comes ....things can change quickly so maybe later in the week we will see models picking up a new route to cold ....

So another cold spell comes to an end......saw snow falling every day from early hours of Monday morning to early hours of Saturday morning and would have taken that before it started......disappointing though that we never had more than a cm or so lying at any time which either sublimated earlier in week or melted this morning as milder air came in .. ....our heaviest snow fell last night just as the milder air was arriving.....never saw a glimpse of the sun since Friday last week.....always grey cloudy skies, day and night since last Saturday so therefore temps never went lower than 0 degrees and mostly hovering between 1 and 3 degrees past seven days... wind chill was something else all through with strong and gusty icy wind that would cut you in two.....If anyone is old enough to remember1986, this spell is closest I can remember to that winter....big difference back then it lasted for 5 weeks from late Jan to early March ....biting easterly wind, often cloudy with very little snow or sunshine ....that was bitter....late March 2013 would have seen a similar spell who ran in to early April......wouldn't rule out another cold blast either late Feb or March this year .....however you never know and I am always a little sad when a cold spell ends as you never know when snow will fall again.....I remember watching my kid playing a match in early April 2013 coming to the end of that bitter easterly spell, with snow flurries blowing across the pitch throughout the game. Little did I know I would not see another snow fall until December 2017, four and a half years later, after a terrrible run of mild stormy winters.....likewise after the two beasts in March 2018 this is the first winter to hold snowy interest after a three year run again of milder ones...... hopefully we are at the start of a cluster of colder winters again.....and some decent summer's

Great photos and videos.....you guys are getting hammered up there......I went to bed at 1am here and roads, grass, cars everything was white with a blizzard raging .....temp had dropped from 3 degrees to 0 in biting wind....as expected woke up to green grass and sleety rain with temp back up to 3 degrees ....got about 4 hours of snow though when models were just giving sleet for my area so can't complain......on to the next chase ha

Garden starting to turn white here

Main band reaching South Kilkenny now and surprisingly it is falling as snow .....so far ha

Bits of sleet falling this afternoon on and off... just went outside and a heavy burst of snow came for a few minutes ...thats 5 days on the trot now with snow falling ... stopped again for now but bodes well for you further north tonight when the main band arrives.....not expecting much if anything here tonight, maybe some wet snow for a while before it turns back to rain.....the joys of the Irish winter

Is there a prize for coming last

Last throw of the dice Tonight and Tomorrow morning regarding snow from this spell before much milder air sweeps in.....has been bitter cold in the wind since last weekend albeit disappointing for snow for many - although great to see the west coast getting plastered yesterday ......will feel very spring like temperature wise from Sunday and next week for sure albeit much wetter......don't think winter is finished with us yet though and I am looking at or around week commencing 22nd Feb for next possible cold reload .....milder spells have lasted 8-10 days this winter alternating with similar length colder spells .... seems to be a repeating pattern.......We will see ....

Snowing most of the day in South Kilkenny but intensity not there for accumulations....got heavy for 10 minutes earlier and ground started turning white....then eased off again......disappointing so far but maybe something better later.....

Aftrr all the fraupel,finally had a few proper snow showers this morning leaving a light dusting ......snow for tomorrow downgraded again....a lot of places in north and east will stay dry I think with small accumulations elsewhere before turning to rain tomorrow night and on Friday......unless models have this wrong

Yes just not enough instability despite decent upper air temps unfortunately.... lower thicknesses and instability in eastern Scotland and eastern England thus the heavier streamers there......last Friday when ME were warning of significant accumulations this week, the charts had that unstable air pushed right over us, but from Saturday it became apparent in the models that wasn't going to happen....disappointing.....Thursday's snow seems to be getting downgraded now too .....weaker than envisaged and prob won't reach some areas, then turn to rain Thursday night or Friday morning where it has snowed ......cursed we are ha

Good luck to all ye up north....goes to show surprises can pop up once the air is cold enough

Graupel been falling here since late Sunday night almost non stop....often very light but had a heavy burst for 45 mins last night that turned everything white and again for 45 mins this morning ......havn't seen a proper snowflake though yet.....I have always done well with getting snow from easterlies going back as long as I can remember, but amazingly this is the second easterly this year with decent synoptics that hasn't brought a snowflake....The 4 day easterly back between 3-6th of Jan brought hail, rain and sleet as air was too modified.....this one so far has brought persistent graupel as not enough instability despite decent upper air temps. ....you couldn't make it up ha.. the proper if lightish snowfalls I saw on 7th Jan and between 22nd amd 24th Jan came from fronts arriving from the west in a northerly airsream which is usually crap for my location.....the snow due to arrive Thursdays is again due to a front coming in from the west .....first time in my life that not one but two easterlies have failed to register a proper flake of snow here in what's usually a good location when winds are from the east......thats weather for you... All that said I am glad others are seeing some snow and hopefully more to come over coming days for us all....