Seasonal weather required

Damn , you included half a post in there for something else I hadn’t finished ... but then subsequently deleted .. Anyway, yes it looks cool / cold for March but probably just the wrong side of marginal for lowland areas anyway . Cold rain is no good to anyone . Bring on the wasps in the eaves i say - I usually get an old dyson out , extend the tube , lean out of the attic window and suck the buggers up one by one .

Not at all , I know exactly where your coming from and feel the same way . One big hit ,a few hours to play like kids in it and then get lost - bring on early summer .

Well I will be gladly covered in egg in particular over my big ugly mug ,as Andy’s 3 piece blizzard looks the form horse ?. Not exactly 3 full days ,but this I do think could be the big one and we are now within 40hours or so if it starting so any downgrade shifts will become dramatically less and less from this point - and there is always the possibility this could still upgrade !!! Red warning tomorrow lunchtime ?

Andy’s steak meal main course blizzard requires no charts . When Andy speaks - we listen and follow like the weather serfs we are to him . However , if Andy is wrong, we won’t be able to understand why ,as we are just simple folk , but we will go nuts and hunt him down on the black mountain. Anyway ...... I am aware of a few highways departments from various councils really gearing up for the Thursday/ Friday event . Going for it in a big way - though I guess you have no choice really if you are unsure . I suppose normally a storm this time of year would dump 20-40 mm of rain ? over a day or so , so correct me of wrong but were that to be converted into snow isn’t that 20-40 cm ?. My prediction is 4-6 inches lowland - 12+ in the valley hot spots . Hopefully much more though but that would tick the winter box for me . Roll on spring and 15 - 20 degrees sunny days . That first day of just wearing a t shirt and it feels comfortable , the life breathed back into to the hedgerows , the invasion of wasps into the eaves - damn must fill that hole in this year ....

Would this be that 3 piece steak meal thing you mentioned by any chance ?

Imagine if there really was a genuine really cold spell . Multiple snow events all over ( and right down to the coast ) . An event lasting a good solid 3 weeks with no rain or sleet or anything remotely mild - at all . December 2010 . ( will be 8 years ago when we start next winter - wow , where did those years go !). Now that would be epic . That was epic . This just feels like another event ,that probably won’t even get any nominations come the weather awards ceremony whenever that may be . What has been epic has been the level of hype and sycophantic behaviour in the mad thread . Absolute cheese fest in there at times. I think most may get a covering for a short while but that’s about it . Winter of 17/18 will be known for THAT SSW but not much else . Hopefully it can go out on Thursday Friday with a bang and avoid the shameful wet fart blizzard tag . Someone mentioned that the Russians were behind this SSW - ( must try harder next winter please Vladimir ) .

Blizzards are sooo yesterday - boring - move along - ICE STORM PLEASE . Wow “ICE STORM “ that has much more of a scary ring to it than just a bog standard blizzard . Andy - Stuff your 3 piece steak blizzard - I’m having a cruella de vil turn you into ice storm .

Well as a weather enthusiast I will take the freezing rain option as opposed to the wet fart blizzard . That would be really interesting . Please don’t have a go at me ,saying how many problems that would create and how selfish of me and that I am a truly horrible person - but I defend my right as a weather enthusiast to choose the freezing rain option .

No one wishes they are wrong more so than myself . I hope to be covered in egg on Friday . I hear you Jedi master , yet I can see a meeting Friday morning with an angry mob looking for a pound of flesh ... You’d better hope that snow is so deep the mob can’t break through - I can see a one eyed worzel gummidge type character dressed in something medieval of course rallying the mob into a frenzy demanding “ orf with his head , orf with his head “and the mob just saying “ Aye , aye , aye “.

“ epic “ cold spell . No I don’t think so . This is becoming a cold snap with a wet fart slush fest blizzardy slizard followed as ever as always no matter how “ charts never seen before “ etc etc in the mad thread , yes followed by rain . A few very cold days then what should be the grand finale is turning into squibious dampus . This ( the wet fart blizzard ) was supposed to be the one time where everyone witnessed a major event - coast huggers and those of altitude all as one for a change . Yet again if you have 2-300 metres + you should be ok ,otherwise yes there will be snow but it will be quickly washed away before you can enjoy it the next day . Im now hoping for some easterly scraps before the wet fart blizzard laughs at me . Cold spell , epic , PFFFFFFFFFFFFT

Now if that were rain Swansea would be right up there ..... I suppose from the Easterly that line is very sheltered but I can’t see how it would be from the steak meal blizzard ?? Andys steak meal blizzard should take any prisoners , it will hit a large area and that will be that . I wonder how Andy can possibly ramp that snow depth chart for his locale more than the chart itself ...

Do we all meet up with our pitch forks and burning stakes and march to Andy’s if this fails ?

Referring to the big steak meal as Andy put it :- As it stands it’s looking very marginal and very familiar regarding the usual areas to get pasted . If you have elevation I think you have more chance as ever . Even then it’s likely to be washed away Saturday for lowlanders anyway. No more room for any further downgrade - my hope and it’s only that is that after a run of downgrades we may get some minor upgrades that just do enough —- still a long way off to blizzard Thursday night Friday day though. If I see sleet on Friday I think I may actually cry . But not for long as this will turn into absolute rage with a very localised red warning storm forecast for my exact locale with temperatures in excess of 100 degrees Celsius .

Andy Andy Andy ! Go Andy , go Andy ! Though what about a submersible pump for next Saturdays flood? Ah , with no power though could be tricky. Drainage ducting - dig some good drainage ducting quickly !!

Yesterday morning I was thinking it was going to be a seriously memorable event - perhaps 78/81 ... I thought - “ok so I’m west wales , that’s fine , I accept I may see minimal snow initially but with that I accept that this could mean a huge blizzard at the end of the week “ . Howver I now think this could be a ok spell . For me that means seeing a layer of snow just deep enough to make a snowman for my daughter and thar said layer doesn’t thaw out within one day . But just once I wanted to have that blizzard dream turn into reality . Im talking howling winds , a foot of snow minimum ( that’s not too greedy it really isn’t ) and drifts all over the place , then a period of relative calm - a minimum one day to walk outside and enjoy it . After that it can be washed away . Yet that distant faint sound of a crows call ( ever present downgrade possibility ) has turned into a circle of stinking vultures about the rip the carcass of the dream to shreds . At times like these I put my fingers in my ears and read Andy’s posts with one eye partially open .... Andy !! Save our blizzard- - I want no further downgrades .

It may be a mild outlier ( I hope ) but it cannot be discounted so easily .

Well considering it’s still days away from any snowfall our regional thread is starting to tick over nicely . Hopefully we can all join in and share our radar images / snow snaps during the next week whilst being able to have a bit of fun at the same time. I remember a lot of good natured humour in here years ago but also quite a few killjoys who only seemed to like posts like :- Dry , temp 1.6 degrees , DP falling . Or Wet , temp 3.4 degrees , rain . etc etc etc . Heres to the Red warnings and maybe a cheeky Black one . Oh and in case anyone thinks I have no regard for the vulnerable by saying “ bring on the red warnings “ please remember this is a weather enthusiasts forum - not the NHS .

Crackpot , your observation cannot be discounted . Too many especially on the mad thread dismiss far too easily . Yes there are observed issues with the GFS but i doubt it has ever been 100% plain wrong . A blend of the GFS ECM AND UKMO is where it usually will go . For me , the overall pattern is so rare that no models historical bias can be used against it this time . Even the “ it always corrects south “ which i admit it usually does - cannot be used in these circumstances . Oh yes , forgot to mention “ don’t mention the word mild or anything associated with mild to Andy “. ?

Awww shucks I cannot lie ... Swansea isn’t in the warning . I just wanted to feel part of the cold spell. Sorry all . No Black Death either - so I won’t need to stand on the Loughor Bridge whilst Swansea faces almost certain death . Though do you remember the Red warning in 2013 ? Merthyr area ?. I wonder how many red warnings we will see in the next week .. Starting to get very interesting - just need a good undercut and bingo !!

Jesus Christ ! Never in my 352 years of model watching have I ever seen a BLACK warning !! WTF - I think that’s taking it a bit too far - The weather matrix must have an additional level of severity now . ” BLACK WARNING = almost certain death “ North Wales and randomly Swansea in the same warning ?? Andy what does this mean ?

I think some in the mad thread are getting seriously carried away and blinkered to the possibility that this low next week could very well be rain for the south and south east. After the intensity of build up ,that would be a monumental disappointment . What annoys me is that mentality to say “ bin the run “. If one of the big hitters casts doubt on the run ,then you quickly see numerous posters latching on as if they are weather pros saying that “ IN MY OPINION this evolution is incorrect “ or “ this run has gone on a bender , had ten pints ,a kebab , blah blah blah “ . Yes there may be good reason to cast doubt on the evolution ,but the pros know you cannot discount it fully . There is usually a moderated version of a what looks wrong .... Hopefully though ,for us here in Wales this low will give us feet of snow !! A few cold days ,a mega dumping , a few days of digging out and enjoying it then washed away and spring warmth please.

There she is ! That is the beast looking right at us . That looks rather scary .

Here we go ! Warnings starting to increase . I can’t recall Meto using “ exceptionally cold “ before - maybe they did but they sit on the fence and “ very cold” is rare never mind “ significantly cold “ - “EXCEPTIONALLY COLD” BOOMED THE BEAST as we cowered before it ... Air is now already quite dry - 39% in my house across most rooms when usually 55 ish ... Slowly we are being sucked into the beast.

Just seen the bbc for the week ahead and it echoes that purple blob —— I don’t think it will be marginal this time - this is just not the norm that we are used too and is so frustrating . All snow right down to the coast . So far down onto the coast in fact that the mumbles lifeboat runway will need brushing clear . Still , in weather terms a long way off - but we are definitely in with a 50/50 chance of 78/81 ....

That’s our holy grail .... One of those for a few days ( can put a tick in the winter box ) then straight to early summer please !. Looking like with the high heading to Greenland we will get Northerlies after a week or so from now - though will the up coming cold spell assist in March northerlies producing goods in to low land wales ....or will they end up just being the usual valley type +200 metre events ....or perhaps more likely to just be a sleety Pembrokeshire dangler ... Personally a NNW is required -but in March hmmm ..