Fourty Point Three Degrees

JAN. cold and unsettled. Floods FEB. Very wet and very cold. Snow event around the 12th MAR. Stormy and wet. Nothing spring like APR. Becoming dryer and warmer. MAY. Hot plumey month. 31C on the 23rd. JUN. "More runs needed", "its in FI so ill believe it when its 5 days away" JUL. "more runs needed", "Lets see what ecm says" AUG. Disaster of a month. Floods floods floods and more floods. 37.2c at heathrow on the 21st SEP. As covid restrictions come into force so does summer. Hot and dry month. monthly 16.8c CET OCT. heatwave month. Plumey and Humid. Temps in the low to mid 20s most of the month NOV and DEC. Mild, wet and windy. Rounding up another boring year in weather.

You shouldn't get too carried away with SSWs, they may boost the likely hood of a cold spell but cold spells are not always the case. Wasn't there a SSW in early 2019 which failed to deliver.

I feel anything cold is just going to keep being pushed back as per usual until its all watered down into a sleet one day wonder in the North East

Christmas looks average to me. Another snowless christmas eve/day then?

18z was a nightmare, 00z is a dream. Chris Rea will be sledging home for Christmas if this run comes to life.

outlier. My money is on it will flip back to cold tomorrow

Looking at some of the current charts i really dont see why people are getting excited over cold rain /sleet on xmas day. The 850s dont look low enough to deliver snow. Still theres time for things to get colder (or warmer).

The cold fanatics fretting over some mild and wet weather coming, just remember November 2009 was a very wet and mild month with floods. I don't think i need to explain what happened next.

Some cold hope within the cfs but i dont think these will verify.

We all know the "winter potential" wont happen. Have you seen the JMA? Looking like a winter heatwave despite all the Northern blocking and negative NAO. Murphys law really wants to play here.

So all the talk of Winters getting warmer is just BS then??? If you thought i was referring to 30C being possible this winter then im afraid it should be me asking if your for real lol

I thought Winters are getting warmer? If thats the case then 30C could be possible during December, 400 or 500 years down the road.... As for today, 20C isnt out of the question.

Winter hasnt yet begun its still astronomical Autumn. True Winter begins on 21st December and judging by a lot of the comments in model thread you'd think Winter ends at Xmas. Its sad we might not get a dumping of snow but lets look forward to record breaking warmth for December.... 20C? 30C? At least days might be warmer than days during the rotten mid-june that has just passed.

I cant really see any Atlantic breaking though, there is just no energy in it to ramp it up, and the russian high that its up against is too strong, its probably just going to get colder and colder.

Out of interest what were the long range model forecasts showing at the start of December 2009? This was our last cold Winter that the UK saw. Wonder if models were showing a mild and wet winter and it was just by luck we snapped into the cold pattern in Mid December in that year?

You could always move to Yakutsk if you want some cold weather....Now this is cold. Wonder how long a person would last for wearing just t-shirt and shorts sat outside in these -40C temperatures? You'd develop frost bite within a few minutes.

I'm not sure why everyone in model chat is getting excited over cold rain and some sleet. It may as well just be normal Atlantic mild rain what is the point? With all the forecasts I've been reading suggesting a mild and wet Winter on the way I actually fear a repeat of last Winter.

This model always seems to be a winner when it spots trends in FI. Its been showing cold seasonal weather for around the xmas period since early November.

I had a feeling we were being led down the garden path on this cold. Whats the point in this pattern if its not going to deliver?

I do love all the "it will never be like Dec 2010 again" or "You will never get another Decemeber 2010" comments. These replies just make it sound like you will never see a snowy December again.. You don't need really bitter cold synoptics to bring heavy widespread snowfall. Snowfall amounts this December could still amount to that seen in 2010.

There seems to be a trend within the CFS model for a Scandi High build and an easter'ly coming off it around the mid December to Xmas period. Gav Partridge has also been highlighting it in his Christmas updates.

Its one model worth keeping an eye on. Its trends have been quite accurate in recent months. This was the model that predicted a terrible winter last year with run after run being dominated by Atlantic low pressure.It also favoured a cool June/July this year with run after run trending towards cool unseasonable 850s, despite being told persistently to ignore it.

London currently topping at 18c wow. Could this be a record breaker for warmest minima during November?

You wouldnt think its November right now. Currently 15c in my backyard as of 4.30am with a muggy and humid feel.

50/50 for each, although the NH is a lot colder in March, the sun is much stronger than in November. Days are shorter in November