Fourty Point Three Degrees

13 to 16c is warm when your active , but cold when your idle.

Not the first time 850s this hot have verified. Last time we were under crazy 24C uppers was for about three days and temps at the surface were lower than the 850s themselves.

CFS july and august 500hpa anomalies

GFS only 58% rolled out and looks good with the green snotty trough getting pushed back a couple of days

12z GFS was disturbing but then again 1st July to 15th July 2003

Not bad?? Its utter PP for this point in summer time and under that it will feel very like October! Once again, every inch of Europe swelters in the FOURTH consecutive hot summer in a row we once again get sandwiched and glued between two high pressures one east and one west. Not bad ayy? . Really do hate living in this country.

Surely with my area being right in the middle of where hot air meeting the cold air there should be some thunderstorms for here...

Looking like a trip back to June 2012 next weekend on GFS. Love how consistent it is with wanting to put a dartboard low right over the country. Wonder how much prec will be dumped. Could there be flooding issues??

GFS 18z is pants with a touch of added for extra flavour, less heat at the weekend and a dartboard low just in time for solstice. And to think of this base setting in around the summer solstice that sets the stone for the rest of summer, hmmmm toilet base perhaps?

Usual miserable dire summer N/S split coming up. Looks pretty grotty for my area and looks like mid winter for parts of Scotland. I really dont know why people living in North are getting so excited over London having a heatwave. No much fun when your not from the SE.

Gfs 6z blows up a 992mb dartboard low to come and sit over the UK in around two weeks time.

Miles better

NAO is forecasting positive/neutral which is itself a positive for Summer lovers

Any unsettled and cool showing will probably keep being pushed back so its not worth worrying about it when its out at Day 10 and beyond. Imagine if we were stuck under unsettled weather and the models were showing drier and warmer for the second half of June you can just bet your house the dry and warm will keep showing at Day 10 and being pushed back.. I have a feeling thats happening now that the unsettled spells or troughs will just keep being pushed back as high pressure slowly gains more control. Model watching throughout summer of 2018 was just about as exciting as this.

Whatever way its outputs go, its always ending up with a trough dropping in.

I was talking about this with my brother just a few hours ago how the sky never completely darkens and when you look north you can see the sky glowing. He thought it was the moon. The sky always seems brighter to the northeast than northwest

It wasnt very good in the East either at first

Cant believe people want unsettled westerlies than a fantastic Ecm like this, leading into a potential Scorchio for all, as wasnt this what happened in late June 2018 when it was cooler in the East for a time.

ECMWF 12x looking high and mighty

So what are we suggesting here then.... Falling Atmospheric Angular Momentum?? That we should enjoy the warm and dry days of June while it lasts as things are going to take a nose dive?

What we don't want to see is Tropical Hurricanes brewing in the Atlantic and threatening to putting a spanner into the works as i think this is the time of year they do!

I never said there was anything "wrong" it is just looking cooler than recent runs, if your looking for warmth or a heatwave then your going to need the high right over us or more to the East. Still could feel very warm and reach low 20s in a set up mid June. 2018 had HP in similar position.

GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.

All 's on the GFS 18z and its looking very stonking next week. I think our first 30C will easily come before Solstice if these model runs come to life.

No blister heatwaves on the horizon yet but we all know they can creep out of the blue at very short notice. And with plenty of dry and warm weather for the forseeable, i'm putting a guess that the warm and dry will extend well into the 2nd half of the month and the cool and wet will just be pushed back into July resulting in June being 17.5C , 15mm