Fourty Point Three Degrees

And do you blame me? And if its realism your after then realism tells me August Is becoming more of a autumnal month than a summer month, bearing in mind la nina picks up this August I think its safe to say we may not see any heat at all. Hope I'm wrong then I'll eat my hat just as long as its made of ice cream!! j

if we don't see 30c this year then its a bit of a long time since there was a year without a 30c, even 27 is looking impossible at this rate. see here >>> http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/hottest_days.htm

i think this summer will record its lowest max since 1920 the way things are going.

** PLUME ALERT ** a hot outlier from gfs 06z

Lots of heat across Spain lately, could this evolve into something more? All we need now is a good Southernly and we get some very humid and high temperatures and some nice thunderstorms. The beeb and MO seem confident in something humid this month. Seems everywhere in Europe will be basking in heatwaves this summer all apart from UK which is quite pathetic

I wonder if there are any places in the Northern hemisphere that are higher than or at the same level as the UK that are having a better summer than we are?

I'm giving up on summer 2016, don't worry there'll be another one in 11 months

GFS 06z was vile i see no sign of anything we can call summer right out into middle of July, temps below par, even that nice ridge of HP in the south has eroded away as the azores is pushed farther south again. I think we all know why? Because theres an el-nino and la-nina in the house. Maybe if people didn't believe everything they read in newspapers and think its the 100% gospel truth such as their "90 days heatwave" forecasts then expectations for a decent summer wont be so fuelled so much. I give up.

The 28c I mentioned was actually for the UK as a whole not just for Manchester, so looking ahead on the model runs ending mid-July and I see no sign of any such temps for the UK as a whole, I cant even see temps into the mid-20s let alone 28c, should've had somewhere in the UK officially hitting 28c by mid-july.

thanks for replies and links

is there a site anywhere where I can view old charts/daytime maxes from Summer 1976?

gfs 06z was a nightmare if your a warmth lover, temps for the Manchester area at around 17c right out to the end of its run. At this height of summer there should've been a decent 28c by now.

I wonder what the 'punishment' weather we will get for this?

I dont see anything positive in them charts, all i see is straw clutching.

what so far has been the hottest day of the year so far? Id like to compare stats against the summer that has had the lowest daytime max in any one summer? I know a few years have failed to reach 30c, think the last one was 1993. if these runs come true then weve reached mid summer and still not yet had a 28c

this time ten years ago we'd be basking in 27c sunshine for a fifth day running, with a slight cool down in coming days with a brief trough then a whole July of sunshine and heat to look forward to. Where are them days gone?

heres the 18z chart for 3pm on 1st July, showing the temps - just a poxy 12c in Manchester ON THE FIRST OF JULY! !!!!!

Scarfs and gloves for Wimbledon then!!

we cant have a summer without a brief autumnal week or so. Remember the autumnal first week of July 2002 ??

Something ive noticed when watching beeb forecasts is whenever they do a US forecast they always use both *C and *F on the map yet never do they use *F elsewhere just the US. Any reason for this? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36590921

Agreed! Too much wishful thinking going on here. La nina isnt supposed to start kicking in from August and I think we're slowly migrating into that territory already. I see a damp and wet summer full of thundery warm plumes . I'm worried this year will be absent of a 30c and statistically speaking we are long overdue a summer when 30c isn't reached.

What an awful 12z and an awful contrast on the temps next week. It has mid to high 20s in the South yet places just north of Birmingham struggle to reach 18c. Then heading into July its going to feel much like December 2015 as temps all round are in the mid teens.

id ignore the 00z - ensembles mean is much cooler and follows the zonal cooler ECMs

Anyone know when we last had a 30c before the solstice or could post a list of years it happened? It must be 7/8 years since the last 30c so it must be a record now the longest period without a 30c pre solstice. Hope someone can confirm stats with a list, thanks

it seems the met office have now ditched the idea of the azores high fully moving northwards in July: UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Jun 2016 to Tuesday 12 Jul 2016: Unsettled weather is most likely across the northern half of the United Kingdom through late June and early July, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, although there should also be some dry and bright spells in between. Southern and in particular southeastern areas are likely to see lengthier spells of drier, warmer and sunnier weather, but still with some occasional rain or showers. The temperature is likely to be generally around normal for the time of year, but perhaps a little above average at times in the south.