Paul Sherman

I have it on good authority from someone at the Met that Friday will b all Snow across the Uk and next week continues cold - dont get fooled by GooFuS

These Dewpoints are really impressive Widely -7c with quite a few now at -8c across the region. If it rains I will give up weather forever

Yep You can almost guarantee the first shower will be the grains!

So what has changed then ? If the LP goes across France and keeps us cold, who is to say this Spell which started last Friday really wont go for 14-16 days ? Nobody knows how an area of LP which has not even really got its act together yet will evolve. The way the BBC are going with the end of the week you would think they have the Blizzard of 2018 nailed but we will see I guess

Lets have a check in around the region Temp : 2.6c Dewp : Minus 7.6C Wind : Easterly

Yh think cross wires - was talking about the actual snow events 1991 was like pulling teeth, 20th January until the 6th Feb until the snow arrived, this forum would have melted down - Pmsl

SE Essex obviously as it says in my Profile I am talking about actual Snow Events not the Build Up, It was cold and Frosty with Freezing Fog from the 23rd-29th November but the snow started late evening on the 30th and stopped on the 2nd December. There was no more snow until the 17th December but there was so much it was on the ground still when the 17th started again Hope this helps, I am a bit of a Statto with Storms and Events

I am amazed at that statement 1987 - 4 Day event 1991 - 3 Day event (With 14 day build up) 2010 - 3 Day Event Add into that a Possible Blizzard at the end of the 4 days. Amazed to be honest we live in the Uk in a Temperate Climate not in Canada in a Continental Climate

That Amber Warning does denote more of a NNE Streamer to me in its allignment, this would favour Medway Towns and Ashford more than the Thames Estuary I would have thought. Time for it too change I guess

I really think those outside the zones not worry, it looks like its bands of showers North to South that sweep across the area into organised lines, obviously they lose some power the further west you go, I still think everyone will do well out of this, then the plus side of the potential blizzard hitting your areas harder than areas further to the east of our area. The weather has an amazing way of balancing things out

Yep focus on the disruptive snow could be shifting North from this mornings updates

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09s8khj Week ahead with $hittyknickers Looks like the BBC are going with areas from Norwich northwards and North York Moors as the sweet spots. End of Week still looking fun for down here

Yh some of the no go zones around this area as follows Crown Hill and Hambro Hill in Rayleigh. absolute Death Traps Church Road in Benfleet The road that drops down from Hadleigh into South Benfleet Langdon Hills, some of those roads will be a challenge Add in the A127 & A13 when the BMW, AUDI & Mercedes rear wheel drive hamster wheels start spinning away and sliding across lanes when they are sitting on your bumper flashing you and you have a recipe for fun and games! Best 3 sledging places One Tree Hill, they even have floodlights Weald Park, have it on good authority that the gamekeeper will open the gates if you fancy Midnight Sledging Southend has some pretty good hills down to the coast as well esp near Leigh On Sea Station Enjoy it!!

I know Sunday onwards is when the colder uppers spread over us Shotski.........................But Maxes were shown as 2-3c today so maybe the 4-5c for tomorrow is not going to be laughable, that was my point. The sun out of the wind is really quite warm

Just briefly touched 6c here ? Maybe the BBC new suppliers not so off the mark

And i will wager a £1000 That is an incredibly bold statement/prediction to make seeing as pretty much every north easterly has cripped SE Essex over my 45 years on this planet

ENE

S Herts is defo London and SE Thread

One of my friends messaged me earlier about Friday and Saturday to which I replied You cannot or nobody can tell where an Area of Low Pressure which has not even formed yet will track for 6-7 days ahead and if they do DONT BELIEVE THEM!

Pretty sure we split it up in 2009 and 2010 Think it was called East Anglia and 3 Countes Thread which included Beds, Bucks and Northern Herts etc Ask the Mods am sure it can happen, think we ran at 1 page per minute 8 years ago so you will need to be fast to keep up

Yh also not buying the GFS Solution for Friday. Have a feeling the Low will be around 50-100 miles south of the Uk probably near the Brest peninsula and keep the SE in strong North Easterlies. If thats the case I would not expect too much snow North of the M4. Now thats rare in itself saying that. Does have the look of a classic South Central and SW event though.

BBC 2355 Useless - Link Below

Yes good to have CK1981 Back in time for the Upcoming Madness and the Amazing SE thread Couple of things from the last few posts, one the incredible depths around the Ashford and Kent areas from 1987 was caused by a straight and penetrating North Easterly like the Nor Easters they get in the States, that really was an incredible wind which whipped up drifts probably never seen since, some in Kent were 20ft Deep near the M2. The Low Pressure for end of work week, History would favour a southerly route and undercut of the Low across the Spanish/French area but have looked into a few events on Wiki the last few days and some of the most notable SW And South Central Blizzards of the last 300 years HAVE had these LP Crashing into the Block so anything is possible and cant be totally discounted. The angle looks strange to me, straight east across Biscay and then a sharp turn to the NE just does not look right and the Block will surely win this battle. Interesting times ahead for the next 7-10 days

In reply to the poster that asked about where streamers affect with what vector wind - I did find the archive but it wont let me link it as its so old and dusty, anyway the following is a guide. NNE - Places in Jackpot zone would include Coastal Norfolk, Coastal Suffolk and Kent into Sussex east of a line from Whitstable/Faversham through Ashford down to East of Hastings, the Jackpot zone usually is Hawkinge to Lenham. NE - See above but can also affect places 15-20 miles inland from Coasts of Suffolk, Norfolk, Essex and also push a little further west along the Sussex and Kent Coasts as well. A strong enough Flow can penetrate showers into the Greater London area ENE - Thames Estuary Streamer. Affects areas from Clacton down to Isle of Sheppey through Maidstone and SE Essex and Thames Corridoor, also affects NE London to a point and crosses the Thames at Dartford into SE London. ESE - This is an interesting one as it affects most of Kent and the Southern side of the Thames Estuary and places In NW london and Herts do very well. From Steves chart above from ECM @ 120 showing an ESE Streamer would be very happy if living in Herts, Bucks etc

Wife reporting snow grains in Leigh On Sea already