Paul Sherman

First one is just east of Shoeburyness but dying a death, the ones behind it are much healthier off the coast of Southwold (Suffolk) and if these can then become mor favourable in the ENE would hazard a guess at 0100 onwards.

Yh the Shower SE of Clacton looks like it will graze Shoeburyness and head SW towards Medway Towns. The shift is definate now but still not ENE but nearly!

Yh should be a dusting at least, good thing is it was bone dry all day here so ground is condusive to anything that falls will stick

Wind seems to be starting to shift, we here out in Leigh On Sea tend to be the first to see these Estuary showers as they start their journey up the Thames, will report in when something happens. And will send them further west and south west with love. Good luck everyone

I am not a Moderator - You are a tad touchy, see you Mid Month no doubt for the big freeze

So just to clarify CK1981 because I have not seen you say this 2,350 times in the last 136 pages of this thread you think there will be something interesting around Mid Month ??? Dont want to go to bed tonight wondering if you were not clear on that ? Anyone else need this confirming or is it just me

Having wrote an almost paper on the Thames Streamer event of 2009 which is on this forum somewhere I can with 100% certainty say the Fables Thames Streamer needs an ENE wind direction, but only so slightly North of East. Steve Murr has the exact compass position I believe. Other streamers affect the SE as well, The ESE Streamer affects more of Herts and NW London. The NNE Streamer hammers Kent and East Sussex.

It usually livens up after the Tornadoes are all done and dusted

It actually hit 11c 52f today for a brief moment in Central London and with the sun beating down it felt almost like Spring. Really nice seeing the yellow orb make a return today Looking forward to some convective skies with westerly driven showers next week

Whats this great weather coming in for the Snow Starved SE ? Did someone mention a North Westerly.................

For those of you on Tour 4 in 2018 this is a very varied Tour with a much slower pace to storms and less crowds around, even in recent years we have sometimes had storms literally to ourselves. The main action areas are generally the High and Northern Plains hence why we start and end in Denver. Here are some pictures from 2014 to 2017. We also tend to do more Astrophotography on these tours as well being so far north. - Wessington Springs South Dakota Tornado crossing the Highway on 18th June 2014. - Cone Tornado in NW South Dakota on 21st June 2015 - Aurora and Milky Way near Sterling NE Colorado on 22nd June 2015 - Spectacular Lightning from a line of Supercells in Nebraska 18th June 2017

For all you Tour 2 guests getting excited for the Upcoming Season - A selection of Pictures from the last 4 years chasing (2013-2017) Tour 2 is still primarily a Southern Plains target although it is not uncommon to head further east to follow systems or indeed some first Colorado and Wyoming chases. - 26th May 2013 a stunning Nebraska LP Supercell near Broken Bow. - 27th May 2015 Cyclic Supercell near the town of Canadian in the Texas Panhandle - 24th May 2016 Cyclic Supercell near Dodge City Kansas. This was an EF3 Tornado - 22nd May LP Supercell Mammatus display at Sunset near Roswell (New Mexico)

For those of you on Tour 1 - Some pictures from the last few years to get you in the mood. This Tour is usually centred around the Southern Plains with the Jet being so far south, but it is not uncommon to venture as far north as Nebraska or an early season Colorado Chase on this tour as well. - Kansas Classic Supercell that produced an EF1 Tornado - 10th May 2014 - Texas HP Supercell that produced an EF0 Tornado near Big Spring - 18th May 2015 - Colorado Supercell that produced an EF2 Tornado at Wray - 07th May 2016 - Oklahoma Cyclic Supercell that produced 4 Tornadoes including this EF4 near Wynnewood - 09th May 2016 - Some Mammatus Art in the Texas Panhandle in mid may 2017 - This Tour did have 1 High Risk and 2 Moderates though. So once again much like Tours 2 and 3 you really can get anywhere on Tour 1 from far west Texas to the High Plains of Colorado.

Some pictures to whet your appetite whilst w have to put up with the long cold winter. These all taken over the last 4 years on Tour 3 Enjoy - New Mexico Supercell that later produced an EF0 Tornado near Roswell - 7th June 2014 - Colorado Cyclic Supercell that produced 8 Tornadoes near Simla - 4th June 2015 - Kansas HP Supercell near Johnson City - 3rd June 2016 - HP Supercell with 4" Hail near Amarillo (Texas) - 8th June 2017 So as you can see its not just the Northern Plains that get impacted for Tour 3, the Southern Plains can still get some action.

Hi Becca There are 3 Chase Vehicles on Tour 1 and so there will be 3 Chase Drivers. Richard who has been chasing since 2010, and also Jock a mad Australian who has been chasing for nearly 20 years. Booking flights options is probably best answered by others on here and I am sure they will post with what flights they have got. Others over the years have flown in a day earlier than the travel day and that way they get acclimatised to the Jet-Lag. The balance is sorted by the other Paul who owns Netweather (Paul Michaelwaite) so might be an idea to Email him or Personal Message him on here for that info. The actual Info packs get sent out to you about 2 weeks before you come on the trip, but again any questions on what clothes to bring etc then just ask away Cheers Paul

Yh just looked at that actually, quite surprised that all the main events on the archive are between 1010 and 1030.

It is a brave man who calls an Easterly even 24 hours before I reckon. ANyway back to the Models. Will GFS move towards the Others more on the 18z run, I doubt it

And they were not shown like that 7 days before the snow started in 2010, oh and guess what the GooFuS was showing the Atlantic blowing away the Block with ease even before the 30th November that year. Crikey being the 8th member ever on here in 2003 I really have been on here a long time and I remember things like that, it makes me laugh every time this synoptic is shown

But feb I get what your saying but I am like John Holmes a very old f art indeed and this looks decent, the saying get the cold in first and worry about the snow always is true, the last 7 days of November 2010 was freezing fog and frost with snow pellets, then the snow comes, the same in Feb 1991 the same in Jan 87. if we had models back then we would not have seen what we can see now, which as I always say is a bad thing. Lets get the HP in, get the ground cooling down, if the flow becomes favourable great, if not lets enjoy a January Scandi High

Oh you reckon ? Lol you really need to look back at events before making such bold statements. 34cm of Level snow from 46 hours of continuous snow with -10 uppers and 1010 500mb heights

Stuart As Nick says the flight to Vegas on Virgin is quite cheap and the drive down through Kingman and Lake Havasau (Where the Original London Bridge is) is very scenic and great things to explore on the way. Believe it or not Vegas is only about 350 miles from Phoenix

Hi Mate Yh am hoping we can get that ENE trajectory, although this is looking like a slow burner, Scotland then NE England, just hoping everything falls into place with favourable uppers, its been a long time since the SE had this chance.

I think there is a massive difference between marginal battlegrounds and true advected dry easterly air for the South East. Best shot of winter for the whole region by far

Meeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Yh some serious wind gusts here in SE Essex as well. We often get these types of winds with dry weather behind LP Systems that crash SE in The Plains of Tornado Alley in the Spring, sometimes sounds like the hotels are going to be ripped apart and keep you up all night. Some really interesting weather we have had over the last 7 days at least before the High Boredom sets in