Paul Sherman

Lol Daniel That is a bit harsh when the Models have been showing it since the first week of February for 8-10 days away, thats 11 days out and with it coming "hopefully" on the 26-28th will be 18 days late. When you predict something long enough it will happen eventually Ecm from 8th for the 18th (Yesterday) See link below from Ukww http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/118120-model-chat-february-2018/page__view__findpost__p__1038580

God I really hope this verifies, living 6 miles from the North Sea Snow machine it has been 8 long years since the last Thundersnow here after 2 episodes in 2009 and 2010. I just want to make a video like this one below

For the time of year if correct it could be record breaking, even the Dec 62 to March 63 winter was waning towards the end of February. We shall see the next 4-5 days are going to be compelling viewing!

GFS absolutely hammered tonight - I reckon its drunk the bar dry with that run

Lol even thats looking a tad dodgy at present, thanks to La Nina burning most of Tornado Alley down and no precip for 5 months. And we moan about our weather here! Am sure it will all change over the next 3 months, and I am sure we will get to throw a snowball in the next 2 weeks.

Come on Goofus - You can do it!!!

Loving the Date on the Mean Chart - Pmsl 28th February which is.............dum dum daaaaa 10 days away. Sheeesh

Evening Thought I would pop in and see if we have progressed any from the Days 8-10 from the past 3 weeks. Where are we now ? Have we crept into the magical Day 7 ? Lol loving the Mad Thread Meltdown tonight

I loved Mr Crazzzzzzzyyyyy Snowfaaaaaannnn and his doggy Broadis - Crikey thats a blast from the past, think he was around nearly 20 years ago in the days of BBC Slowwatch with Bill Farkin and his grebes and Dave, Davina and Davindra Allen - Lol great times

I sooooo want to believe but I just cant yet. All the years on here (14 and counting) Member number 8 would you believe has seen soo many cert horses fall just before the line. But granted the Met boys at Exeter seem excited. One thing in our favour and what I am liking is the traditional route from which all strong cold spells start namely the 4-5 days of Clear freezing weather before the snow comes, that lays the foundations so to speak. November 26th to November 30th 2010 had freezing cold clear days interspersed with freezing fog that never cleared at times, and then the snow came and stuck. So lets see if the Models are still showing favourable things at the start of next week before we pop the corks. Remember we are still at days 8-10 from this point.

I will only take note at T96 and lower and only when there is cross model agreement not charts that are T168 away. I dont doubt winds will swing easterly or south easterly, lets get to the end of the weekend before the champagne is opened

Are the Met Office updates not playing catch up ? I really cannot see where the Chief Forecaster has got that update from when there own model this evening is pretty shocking, Ecm says No, Gfs says no. We shall see if the CF has a crystal ball in the next 7 days I suppose. But if you were going off latest model data it would be the following Easterly showing on 2 Perbs out of the suite at..........yep you guessed it Days 10-12

Stunning start to the day with 9c on my drive into work - with some sun I reckon we could get 11-12c today

Just checking in to see if we are getting closer - Stats below make grim reading Feb 4th the arrival of the snow was touted on here by Jaffacake to be around the 15th Feb so at Days 10-12 Feb 9th the arrival was pushed forward a bit to Days 7-9 Feb 12th the arrival was pushed back to days 9-11 Feb 14th we are now looking at days 12-14 again Lets face it - It is not going to happen Hoping we get some dry weather with High Pressure to dry things out and then warm up a bit as we get into the 2nd week of March.

Die hard - Love it!

Thats a late one and on changeover day as well. Lets hope the weather gods are kind to us and not a risk in Nebraska on the first official chase day of Tour 3 or it could mean a 6 hour drive North straight from landing. Thats why we try to get guests in the day before to acclimatise or during the afternoon on changeover day. What time is your flight back on the 10th June as again we urge people to make sure the flight is in the late afternoon or early evening once again for ease of chasing on the last day. Regards Paul

What day are we at now ? Have we advanced from the Day 10-12 ? March soon People!

Yh no chance that is a Tornado, conditions not condusive ref deep layer and low level shear, and that would be classed as a pretty significant Tornado for the Uk.

Yep loved todays skies, shows that the sun is getting there kicking off land based convection, some of the Mammatus has been stunning, even Leigh On Sea has had a covering of hail/graupel. Cannot wait for Spring showers with hail and thunder

Just got back from a weekend in Oakham (Rutland) and the temperature differences in the Sub Tropics is Vast. Oakham was 2.5c when we left, rose to about 4.5 near Peterborough, then upto 6c when passing Stanstead and now 8c in the Subtropical SE Essex

The one that made me laugh out loud in the Mad Thread was SSW Strong South Westerlies. Btw Pete your D9-11 which went to D11-13 is now D14-16

Ed will be pleased this morning. Looks like the ECM in the Mod Thread has done what he expected and pushed the SSW back from days 9-11 to 11-13. He knows his stuff that boy! Lol Hopefully it arrives before the clocks go forward - Lol Roll on Spring and warmth!

Or response to the Paris Snow, just a FYI that is the most Snow they have had since 1987. So they really don't get the events we do in the U.K. onto the future for the rest of Feb, pretty much 99% of our decent cold spells are preceded by a week of frigid weather with penetrating frosts and freezing fog before big snowfalls, 1985, 1987, 1991, 2010 all happened like this , the 2 attempts this winter have not had this pattern so am hoping next week we can get that spell in before the main event last 10 days of Feb. we shall see

Very dark sky looks full of snow in Leigh On Sea Temp 2.1c Dp -3.7c

Should be decent next few hours as the flow alligns more favourable Neil