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Everything posted by Frost HoIIow
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We are right on the boundary of the heat here in the south of the region that's why, only just scraped into it really. If we was in the Midlands southwards it would've been afternoon with the highest temps and lasted longer. Anyway looks like Manchester airport reached 28C. Don't think that's the highest ever June temp though at that location we've had hotter. Winds have moved in from the west now so temps will slowly drop away from now onwards and become more NW'y in the evening. A blink and miss it heat.
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WRF for tomorrow a notch down on what was showing yesterday. But looks like 26C or 27 as a max for our region according to this. Wouldn't be surprised it ends up a degree of two higher though. Parts of Cumbria struggling in the teens. Looks like the 20C isotherm will miss the UK too. 19C even in the southern England before the solstice is still unusual. But maybe not in the near future with a warming world.
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Luckily only Friday is looking properly hot. Looks like we'll be swiftly in the cooler air by evening
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Not a bad day today but still quite a bit of cloud, though this is breaking up more now. Still looking hot for Friday especially south of the Ribble, North Lancs and Cumbria probably missing out on it but probably still warm. Don't think all of that will change much now as we're getting into the reliable.
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Poor day, cool blustery wind and limited sunshine, other than a brief light one we seem to have dodged the showers for the most part. After tomorrow it looks like a few pleasantly warm days then maybe one hot one. Momentum seems to be in favour of hot now with some parts of the region possibly reaching 28C on Friday especially in the south of the region but a blink and you'll miss it affair. A roasting 35C likely in the London area. Too hot for me they can keep it.
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Subject to change as it's still a bit beyond the reliable but at this stage it doesn't look like we'll get beyond about 25C next Friday/weekend even in the more favoured parts of the region for heat such as Cheshire. So probably very warm as opposed to hot. And it might be just a one day wonder as well for those kinds of temps. The SE corner though as usual is hotter, gets it earlier and has it longer. Off out for a Chinese later and drink a few of my favourite Adnam's Broadside beers when we're back.
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Not a bad day overall, some sunny spells and the temp reached 20C. Be nice to have completely sunny day though. Looking at the 6z ensembles no heatwave on the way, some rain but not a complete washout. Overall fairly standard stuff but it's a bit like winter which doesn't get properly going until after the solstice. It's similar in the summer with the highest temps almost always in July & August despite the sun weakening ever so slightly.
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It doesn't look good does it? these seasonal models have been pretty accurate lately too especially last winter with that persistent signal of HP just to our south. I'm no heatwave fan, each to their own though, but some sunny warm days in the low 20s wouldn't go a miss, great for walks or picnics with the family etc as I'm not keen on day upon day of this like we've had today. My joints kind of ache. I don't want to be wearing a jacket year round either, this isn't Shetland.
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Yesterday (Thursday) my app said it was going to be 19C today which was bang on round here at my weather station so hardly vastly different, it was the same at Manchester airport so not really worth getting all peeved off being a degree out is it at Rostherne which is further away? Actually I don't find the met office site all that great to begin with when it comes to forecasted temperatures, there's better apps out there. But your comment was actually about this weekend's weather which is tomorrow. We'll see how it goes but it's a bit blowy out there had to shut the window as the blinds were getting battered. It's definitely going to take the edge off the temps. It certainly won't help it.
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Probably due to the fact it's going to be windy and in the shade where temps are recorded it'll probably feel like 17C that's forecasted. In shelter and in the sun it will feel much warmer.
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Indeed. And that's the thing I've hinted at why it's always going to be a tall order to get very high temps here beyond about 40C. Everything here gets moderated. Despite very high 850hpa's as we're an island temps can quickly drop should the wind suddenly switch to a direction from off the N Sea with a longer sea track from colder waters and bring cloud in. That's why a light SSE drift is far more ideal as there's much less of a sea track. Of course this would always benefit SE England which is where an all time record would most likely be achieved and has done in the past.
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Indeed. The N. American landmass is bigger than the European landmass so not surprising to see very high temps in Canada especially in the south. Then in winter this landmass helps with cold right down to Texas. Personally if I was younger I'd have liked to have lived in Nebraska as you get loads of extremes. That state seems to be ideally located well away from any moderating influence. Probably won't say that if the house got destroyed by a tornado in tornado alley!
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Despite GW I reckon there's a limit to how hot it can get in this country - mostly because of Geography. 40C may well be achieved but it's taking it's time. I remember in the early 2000's the so called experts saying it'll breach 40C in the next 10 years but officially it still hasn't yet 20 years on. It has in Canada but that is part of the huge North American landmass which heats up easier. Over there you'd need less exceptional conditions. We're an island moderated all year round by water and all of the UK is quite far north, nothing's going to change that and there will be a smaller opportunity than say France to achieve blistering hot temps. As being further south the sun there is stronger earlier in the year and for longer, closer to the plumes of heat coming up from Africa and among mainland Europe which heats up far more easily than the British Isles in the warmer months. They've got a lot of things in their favour in regards to heat where as we've got some things that are scuppering it in this country despite GW.