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Everything posted by Faronstream
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Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Faronstream replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS long range still keen on letting the colder than average 850hpa temps getting closer to northern europe instead of being around svalbard/artic ocean area just like we saw for most of april/may. I'm getting strong vibes of a much colder 2nd half of this summer. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Faronstream replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The AAM were positive through most of may on the chart you just posted and it still didn't give us warmth and high pressure dominated weather, just a greenland high so it can go both ways. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Faronstream replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
While the long term forecast still looks really grim for any real summer like heat the northern hemisphere's temperature seems to temporary recover and more warmer than average areas pop up. -
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Faronstream replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So far the spring forecast from accuweather have been very accurate and they summarized it as "cold lingering" which we have seen with cold shots from time to time with clear repetition. Still may is open for a change but a repeat of 2013 or 2018 seems a long shot right now. -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Faronstream replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No need to take the 00Z runs seriously, in 9 out of 10 cases they always go bananas on the mild side. And there is still a trend that the last week of february will go colder than average again. -
Model output discussion 24/01/21
Faronstream replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nothing to complain about with the GFS 0Z for once, hovering around or even below -10 850 temps for 2 weeks straight -
Model output discussion - Into 2021
Faronstream replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Getting quite worried with GFS being so keen on a change to much milder conditions from 12-14th january but clearly it is still an outlier -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Faronstream replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I mean for really wintry wise conditions, not about what you need for snowfall. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Faronstream replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12Z looks extremely good synoptically but still a little meh over the 850hpa temps, need to get down below magical -12 -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
Faronstream replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-20 as 850hpa temperature in most of scandinavia is not even normal, that's around -10 degrees colder than average so 9-10 is normal for early jan here. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Faronstream replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
Faronstream replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still the pv will be weaker than average so for how long time is the question. -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
Faronstream replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it's true beacause we usually have a mild to strong PV but right now it's getting weaker and will probably stay that way for some 3-4 weeks so that's why i think it looks weird, the PV fires up the lows on the atlantic not the opposite -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
Faronstream replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS always throw out options like this ones in long range so no need to take it seriously, also weaker than average PV makes it climatologically impossible for strong lows to form like this nights GFS 0z run -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
Faronstream replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No it still looks good polar vortex going weaker than average from 10th of december and the month out basically, almost impossible for a +NAO setup this december. -
Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion
Faronstream replied to Mapantz's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That's just extremely bad news, since this winter was supposed to be front-loaded with the highest possibilities for a cold start rather than the opposite. One can hope that at least the period around Christmas is around average. -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
Faronstream replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12Z looks like cold zonal to me, 850 uppers of -15 just south of iceland is not bad for this time of year. -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
Faronstream replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 0Z operational is clearly on the milder side compared to average of all other members. Still hope for colder than average from 20th november and the month out. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.
Faronstream replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Orebro, Sweden Mean temperature: 13,0 ( 2,1+ above average) Max temperature: 21,3(-1,4 below average) Min temperature: 3,3 (+3,8 above average) Mean maximum: 17,5 ( 1,3+ above average) Mean minimum: 8,9 (1,9+ above average) Total precipitation: 37,2mm ( 39% below average)
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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.
Faronstream replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12Z shows back to reality with low pressure dominating after mid next week.