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Faronstream

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Everything posted by Faronstream

  1. Faronstream
    The cold air is getting in later on the GFS 12 run, not a good sign if this continues
  2. Faronstream
    The problem with late winter cold is that it usually means that the beginning of spring will be delayed and it can continue into april, also the sun gets stronger so even in just beginning of february the sun melts snow on dark areas with global radiation
  3. Faronstream
    It's the 00z run they don't use the same equipment so probably an outliner
  4. Faronstream
    It looks mostly mild over and after christmas and no "real" cold as in below -10 850hpa. This december is still not in the category of the really mild ones (2006,2013, 2015) but still it's really painful to go through another mild december were the best snowfall usually occurs if the month is Cold. Later on in an average winter it's mostly dry so feels really bad at the moment .
  5. Faronstream
    Looks like it was very short lived (1-2 days). The longer colder period just affected northern europe and that was from the 10th of february so 2.5 weeks after.
  6. Faronstream
    That would be horrible, it usually takes 4-5 weeks before we see the effects of an SSW so the beginning of spring will be cold like last years. If we don't get one before 10th of january then so be it
  7. Faronstream
    ECM 12Z looks weird to me, seems to be really high 850hpa temperatures for a low going in such a southerly direction ( 23/24 december)
  8. Faronstream
    Nevermind we mean the same thing
  9. Faronstream
    Don't you see the azores height that is a lot more to the east on today's run and that is the problem.It's always the azores height that is underestimated
  10. Faronstream
    ECM 0Z just shows mild zonality and not those short northerly cold snaps like last days. Only positive thing is that the azores high is getting further west at 240h+.
  11. Faronstream
    Weak HP over Scandinavia past 240 hours in GFS 06z, needs to be stronger in order for the easterlies to get all the way down central/western europe
  12. Faronstream
    I'd rather have a quite long period with the average temperature below 0 and dry conditions so there will be some frost down in the soil, otherwise it will melt away directly when next mild period comes and the cold period will be short.
  13. Faronstream
    No sign of a HP over Greenland with connection to the north atlantic at 240 hours now, really terrible would not be surprised if this is what will follow for the next runs typical GFS trolling model
  14. Faronstream
    They are not supposed to be that rare actually, back in the 80's it was more common with a cold december than late winter cold (jan&feb)
  15. Faronstream
    Looking at the operational is the only right thing to do, all those members are uneccesary
  16. Faronstream
    That is cold zonality, look at those deathly cold -10 850hpa temperatures
  17. Faronstream
    Surface level
  18. Faronstream
    We already know that the GFS 06z run is an EXTREME outliner, it won't verify
  19. Faronstream
    It still looks extremely cold in both GFS/ECM even the 6z was cold so below zero degrees at daytime temperatures for whole western europe and NAO is still negative for the whole period so no possibilty for any milder temperatures than normal
  20. Faronstream
    This have never happened when both ECM and UKMO are showing
  21. Faronstream
    15-19 degrees celsius is not pretty nice if you ask me in the beginning of july, and i live in southern scandinavia
  22. Faronstream
    0Z from tonight looks really cold/chilly with 850hpa temperatures just below 0 degrees from both GFS/ECM, people are in denial here thinking we will have more than 2-4 days this month with above average temperatures.
  23. Faronstream
    Much warmer as in 15-18 degrees celsius (average temperatures) or 20-25 like a mini heatwave? Can't see the last thing
  24. Faronstream
    Still looks pretty chilly or as best average temperatures in middle and long range. I don't get why everybody is talking about high pressure building up over UK/South scandinavia since it only gives us northerly winds with 0 degrees in 850hpa.
  25. Faronstream
    Here it will be wintry for sure with nighttime lows around -8 to 10 Celsius, just 3 days ago we had +13,7 and that is a new record for february. In UK/western europé just slightly below average
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