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Faronstream

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Everything posted by Faronstream

  1. Faronstream
    As last years cold air is now starting to drag down from the north and wintry conditions establishes for most of spring, something in the atmosphere is triggering this effect
  2. Faronstream
    If its going to be this mild as it shows last days then i don't want any late cold in the end of february/beginning of march. It will be just slippery forever if changing all the time
  3. Faronstream
    The problem is that many people are in denial here about what's normally average weather in march and seems to expect it to save the winter every year which is not the case. Statistics shows that the coldest period is between 15 Jan- 15 Feb so something should/must happen now if we want real winter to arrive for a longer period
  4. Faronstream
    Here it differs 2,5 degrees average high temperature between July and august and i did not mention about february but march. You are grasping at straws here
  5. Faronstream
    What's your point? It's just a record while i talk about most hottest days for an average year and it's not august. And march is neither normally the coldest winter month even if last winters has been different
  6. Faronstream
    Well yes most people would and that is correct, the sun angle is getting lower fast for each day during august and any "real" warmth is unlikely. Most don't even want snow and cold in march since it's too late and out of season. Accept it
  7. Faronstream
    Does it really matter where the lobes end after a split of the vortex? I mean a split is always a split it must have some effect even if minor
  8. Faronstream
    Most people don't even want winter to continue at that time, sun is too strong so it melts even when cloudy on asphalt
  9. Faronstream
    Looked much better yesterday both GFS/ECM, should not be hard to get below zero degrees for at least 2-3 weeks
  10. Faronstream
    2,2 above average temperature is nothing, we had 6-8 degrees above average both december 2006 and 2013
  11. Faronstream
    ECM 12Z pretty good, just too dry so more like frosty christmas but no snow on the ground.
  12. Faronstream
    GFS 12Z as you can see lets the atlantic in too soon and that will be an important matter if you are looking for a white/frosty christmas, can be an outliner too
  13. Faronstream
    Another mildish run from GFS 06Z, let's just hope that it is a trend since it is too early for any cold/snow on the ground now and we want more mushrooms in the forests
  14. Faronstream
    It's really sick how many sunshine hours there has been last 3 weeks, a fantastic heat wave with record may. For now Both GFS/ECM shows a transition to more rainy and windy conditions when we go into the middle of june. For sure the warm conditions can't last forever
  15. Faronstream
    I have to agree with the rest in here the charts are ******* fantastic and there is no real cold air getting even close to the most northern parts of europe
  16. Faronstream
    The summer of 2011 were not poor at all
  17. Faronstream
    It has support for just one run
  18. Faronstream
    GFS continues to be an outliner with unrealistic outputs with cold uppers down to -15, absolutely impossible and nothing to expect since ECMWF continues to show mild westerlies and no sign of " east from the beast". GEM is something in between
  19. Faronstream
    Good to know that the GFS12z is an extreme outliner, neither ECMWF or GEM shows anything close to GFS for the moment and the AO value is not negative enough to let the really cold air flow down to middle latitudes
  20. Faronstream
    I might be wrong but a SSW can actually change the current situation in the atmosphere and strengthen the upper winds in the polar vortex so we get mild SW winds for a long time. I think that happened winter 2011/12 Still looks pretty mild in both GFS and ECM, anyway it's getting too late for any proper cold and the sun angle is high
  21. Faronstream
    850hpa uppers down to almost -20 on GFS 00Z run. It is defiently the best this winter
  22. Faronstream
    Looks extremely horrible in all weather models last days, not even a single day with -10 in 850 hpa so no proper cold is on the way. The most weird thing is that the polar vortex is not even that strong this season and still we are stuck in mild air anyway
  23. Faronstream
    GFS 06Z looks pretty good with HP influences over scandi around christmas and towards new year, frosts and dry weather for many parts of europé expect England, we have seen far worse than this
  24. Faronstream
    Even if we have seen worse christmas weather (2006, 2013, 2015 etc) it's still pretty clear now that it will be a mild christmas this year and snow cover below average values, GFS keeps trolling us with cold charts but ECM is most of the time the only realistic model.
  25. Faronstream
    Still looks pretty mild when we are entering the days before christmas on GFS, seems to be a new trend
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