Faronstream

Instead of directly jumping into the bizarre conclusion that climate change is behind our current unusual warmth one needs to look at both hemispheres and especially around america and western north atlantic, it has been and will be very cold over there coming period which usually fires up the jet stream. The global temperature anomaly will also drop to values around 0,3c during mid nov which is the lowest we have had this time of the year since at least 2014, so it isn't about lack of cold air around us.

Your comment has no support in the statistics for the last 22 octobers aka a little more than 2/3 of a climatic period, unusually warm octobers seems to have become less rare with the warmest ones in the 00's and a overall increase of just 0,05c.

The worst part about this time of the year is the heating won't get on unless it's starting to get cold (below 8c at daytime) so you have to accept freezing , had temperatures down to 18,9c this morning

Short summary of summer 2022 High-summer days (25c or more) 23 (just outside top 10) Precipitation: 163mm (-70mm) Hottest day: 35,9c on 21th july (2nd highest maximum since 1850) Warmest month: August with 18,3c (3rd warmest since 1980) Starting to feel and smell very autumnal last couple of days despite being only early september, chilly mornings with 5-7c and daytime temps of 17-19c that feels more like 14-15c so close but no cigar.Early autumn cold in scandi can be a vital ingredient for a severly cold winter.

Yes burning up with the extreme high value of 0,1c above the 1979-2000 reference period

Had 35,9c yesterday which is 0,1c short of the all-time high record from the heatwave back in 1975. Expecting day-time max of only 20-21c today. Must say it has been a very bad summer, when it's hot it's only for a couple of days then back to slightly below average for long periods of time, the perfect temperatures of around 23-28c has been missing.

If heathrow would use a serious Davis vantage station combined with a fan-aspirated radiation shield and not be surrounded by miles of concrete/asphalt the temperature would drop 5c, so not a new record by any means.

7 high-summer days so far this summer (25,0c as daytime maximum) and still no real change on the horizon for a pattern change in absolute northern europe, last summers 28 days with above 25c seems a long way off at the moment. August right now looks warmer than average but not by much for most of northern europe, enough for maybe 5-7 days above 25c but would still land on only 12-14 days in total above 25c which is much below average for both periods of 1961-1990 and 1991-2020.

It's finally a day when temperatures exceed 25c this year, maximum so far around 26,5c and 7th warmest midsummer all-time.

Last 3 days we have only had t-max temperatures of 12-14c, and that's with around 800w/m2 in sunshine strenght is really miserable for the time of the year.I'm getting a feeling that we will have to wait to the 2nd half of june for the first 25c day of the year.

Maybe it's shaping up to become the 2nd may month since 2000 without a single 20c day here, looks pretty bad with 14-16c daytime maxes at the end of may.

Woke up to around 20cm of new snow today, it's the highest amount of snow for a single 24-hour period in april since at least 1960. At the moment in the afternoon the snow is still on the ground just melting slightly at the top.

Yesterday was the first whole day in march with a temperature above freezing , quite remarkable for being a month with relatively mild 850hpa temperatures.

-8 this morning which is about 3-4 degrees colder than the average night at the beginning of march, but it's a lot of strenght in the sun with a temperature raise of 4c in just one hour

Right now it's -11 outside, i'm expecting the max-temp today to be around -8 at noon and sunny.

GFS 0Z average is clearly not with agreement considering new year/beginning of january for northern europe, it looks weird that the heavy cold air will get swung away that easily. Last-minute snowfall overnight gave me a white christmas this year, merry christmas to you all!!

Right now klart.se (Swedish weather site) believes the main HP center over the christmas period will be over UK and not linking up to greenland for now but we have to hope it changes.

Friendly -0,3 this morning and close to above subzero temperatures, last time it reached above 0 was 26th of november.

A Summary of autumn 2021 arctic ice increase Oct: 5200>>8243= +3043km2 Nov:8351>>10,789=+2438km2 1981-2010: Oct 6856>>9545=+2689 Nov:9633>>11,630=+1997 Total 2021 versus 1981-2010 2021: +5481km2 1981-2010: +4686km2 A great season so far if you ask me.

There is no difference? 80% of europe are having colder than average 850hpa temperatures by 26-27th of november and that has been the case for the last 5 days.

Ozone depletion is linked to a stronger polar vortex and therefore a higher possibilty of mild winter weather in C/N europe, while normal or high amounts of ozone is linked to a weak polar vortex with the opposite effects.

Colder night than expected ( 4c in forescast) 0,4 as lowest temperature and still on that value. Ground frost and clear sky with windless conditions.

GFS 00Z is another mild outlier, we have seen this many times with the GFS model it's turning out to be one of the worst models out there for reliability

First ground/air frost here this morning with -1,4 at 7:42, around 2 weeks later than the average for 1991-2020.

ECM shows where the cabinet shall stand, GFS0z drops the idea of high pressure dominated weather in both middle and long range. No inviting 850 temps either