Methuselah

Currently it's blowing a hoolie. That said, it's still 19.5C...Very reminiscent of mid-Octobers 1978 and 1995...

Many congrats, mate. Have a stonker of a day!

True. One has dependence on or is useful for...something. How one is supposed to extrapolate from that to the conclusion that AGW theory is of little or no use is, quite frankly, beyond me.

Along the lines of Newtonian Mechanics, General Relativity, Quantum Theory and Darwinian Evolution? If by 'wrong' you mean subject to error then, aye, I will agree. But there's a fundamental difference between error and downright wrongness... Is teleconnection theory fundamentally wrong just because last-year's front-loaded winter didn't go according to plan? Ought we ditch it now and go back to necromancy?

Why aren't you guys also Helicobacter pylori deniers!

There were both snowfalls and/or freezing fog in November/December 1962, 1969, 1978 and 1985, all of which were followed by memorable events post-Xmas. My point being that all-or-nothing interpretations of what may appear, on the surface, to be viable analogues may in fact be no such thing...? My memory ain't what it used to be, feb. But wasn't last year expected to be a 'front-loaded winter'?

Wasn't that merely received wisdom, handed down from the time of Galen?

My point exactly!

If that were for mid-November, it'd look reminiscent of 1988. The rest, as they say, is history!

Even next week's 16/17C temps would be considered 'warm' in any normal October...

I'm sensing a possibility of snow over Scottish mountains, during the extended outlook; some wind, rain and unpleasant temperatures look likely too...I can hardly wait!

You have an 'agenda'? Why am I not the least bit surprised!

But, given our ability to read both graphics and their titles, what you say is by-the-by; no-one's saying that ice is melting where it isn't...IMO, you are making a mountain out of a molehill, in order to score a point...Though in reality, the way I see it, you are scoring an own goal?

Is the heading Arctic Basin Sea Ice Area really so vague that it allows room for 'cherry picking'?

I would rather hope that any real young students would ask questions and then digest the answers; they would I hope have a genuine thirst for knowledge? IMO, those who repeatedly ask the same questions, but never once take note of the answers they receive, are not real students: they have no desire to learn, merely to superficially pass themselves off as being clever... Creation 'Science' comes immediately to mind.

I guess that's what happens after spending years fielding rhetorical (or just plain daft?) 'questions' from deniers? The trouble with you lot is that you never listen to the answers you are given...

Another stonking day: 19C, wall-to-wall sunshine and a moderate southerly zephyr!

Simply that making a song-and-dance over historical/prehistorical warm/cold periods has no relevance (apart from CO2 being the initial driver in both situations) is always a lost cause, when it comes to point-scoring...AGW is not part of any natural cycle.

If by STD you mean Sexually Transmitted Disease, this story sounds a lot like the late '80s-early '90s media-hyped 'worry' that midges might spread AIDS... Sorry if I have the wrong end of the stick, Snowy, but I never click on articles from the Daily Express.

Aye Nick, you're right enough...as far as science-based forecasting goes. I wasn't aiming my 'fedupness' against them anyway -my bad for being so unclear. It's more the plethora of what I call 'Bill Foggets', who fill the media with their half-baked annual forecasts for Snowmageddon. I'm also aware that the current state of the solar cycle is very favourable for cold, possibly snowy weather, so the chances are that those who make wild predictions, on a yearly basis, might actually get it right this time... That though, IMO, would have far more to do with coincidence than with genius?

Back in the 2000s, deniers were trumpeting the state of the solar cycles as being responsible for 1998's record warmth (anything as long as it ain't CO2 was the MO?); cooling will start, they insisted, as soon as we approach the upcoming Grand Minimum...But cooling hasn't started; warming hasn't slowed. Ergo, the sun has lost its place, as the latest in a long line of deniers' holy grails... BTW, the globe was warmer than now, back in the time of the Permian extinction event!

Again you confuse weather with climate, feb. And as for the Uncertainty Principle - I'm not sure what you're confusing that with. 'Boiling hot winters'? Eh? Ah? What? Why? When? Who?

1963-70 were all okay; 1971-1977 were all crap; 1978 was okay and '79 was very good; 1982, '84, '85 and '87 were also okay. 1988 and '89 were crap but '91, '93 and '96 were better. 2001 was good as were '09, '10 and '13... Since then, only 2018 had a couple of weeks' useful snowfall...

Why would a renowned/competent scientist want to get behind denialist garbage? Science says what science says. So let's leave the political spin to ideologues and Uncle Joe's 'useful idiots', eh...?

I wouldn't know what to do without your forecasts, Malcolm!