Methuselah

Time for me to make a sharp exit, Fred!?

Winter 2018-19: IMO, despite any claims to the contrary, no-one has a clue; if they did, LRFs would be accurate, on a year-to-year basis, and forecasters would be billionaires!

Okay then...If your points are neither political nor scientific, what are they? Other than attempts to divert the thread away from what really matters? When are you going to offer-up your alternative theory, so that it can be properly assessed?

What on Earth has climate change got to do with Brexit? And anywho, scientifically evidenced truths are a far cry from evidence-free political opinions. What is it you expect to gain from such conflation? And, yes - you are making a political point!

Then you know what to do then, don't you? (A few years' hard study and your education will far surpass mine.) It's nowt to do with 'superiority'.

Of course there's more to it than 'just human input' - and, as had been said umpteen-times before, only the uneducated would ever suggest otherwise - but the drivers that are natural are (unless someone can come up with any exceptions) all working towards cooling; it's the stark-staringly-obvious fact that the Earth is not cooling that makes further scientific study essential. Despite what Trump, Corbyn and their acolytes might suggest... Why is it that so many CCDs are also denizens of either the far-right or far-left? What have the preconceived ideas of political ideology got to do with science, anyway? Is there really a place called Conspiracy Theory Central somewhere? Or is the Wizard of Oz a real person?

I suggest you go and find some, then? I was once even more 'sceptical' than you are; education (though initially intended to bolster my position) has served only to eradicate my denial...

And there-in lies your apparent inability to read things properly, SteveB: It's the Solar-Cycles-R-Us brigade who keep claiming that cooling is about to start...Indeed, according to He-Who-Cannot-Be-Ridiculed-Due-to-Legal-Incontinence, the Earth is already cooling...Though his penchant for holding graphs upside-down (whilst blethering incoherently) did help with his exposition! On a more sad note, many folks still believe him!

No-one's denying the fact that Earth's climate has changed in the past, so have the relative positions of entire continents, as any of us who've studied paeleoclimates will readily testify. But those changes occurred over periods of millions/billions of years and not over mere decades or centuries...Milankovitch cycles operate over periods spanning hundreds-of-millennia. According to the Climate Corbynista, we're are already cooling; to those who're not quite that extreme, we will start cooling soon...Since at least as far back as 2002, cooling has been progged to commence in 'about three-years' time...So far - nothing! Plate tectonics will not be coming to the rescue, any time soon, either I'm afraid. And neither will as-yet undiscovered undersea volcanoes. So the search for the 'missing' cause (of current warming) is becoming evermore desperate with time, IMO?

Given the current state of the natural cycles - solar cycles, Milankovitch cycles et. al. - we should now be firmly within a cooling phase - so the obvious question is: why aren't we cooling? As one alternative scapegoat after another falls by the wayside, anthropogenic GHGs loom ever larger, as the likely culprit...I guess that's why the pro-smoking lobby has turned its attention (not to mention so much time and money) toward the evading 'problem'...? So what are the scientific foundations upon which denier science is based? Where is this body of work that 'proves' that man-made CO2 is not a greenhouse gas?

Merely asking you to produce a quick precis of your own preferred theory, Rambo? Is that really so 'rude and offensive'?

Pray tell, Rambo - as empty attacks will only go so far - how about you present your alternative theory? FWIW, neither Einstein's relativity theories nor Newtonian mechanics are '100% proven'...And, for reasons I doubt you'll understand, never will be!

I know...It's all a Chinese conspiracy theory, I suppose?

Oops! I meant as late as October. Back in the Good-old-Days, the first frost often occurred in September...

How things have changed...peeps getting all excited about frost in October? Anywho, it's bright and 6.2C.

So it could (should sufficient amplification occur in the right place) perhaps increase continental cooling by a further 0.5C, over and above whatever the meandering PFJ produces...?

Does the total incoming solar-radiation (W/m^2) not reduce at deep solar minima?

If I'm assessing things correctly, there ought be two effects: the direct effect of UV on the PFJ, leading to meandering and/or high-latitude blocking events; and the lagged effect due to thermal lag, causing God-knows-what? There's no denying that a period of great interest is incoming.

Please, no? A 'cracking' spell of cold and windy filth, with an outside chance of sleet, might be in store...

Indeed...the dice are somewhat loaded? And not in James Madden's favour, either.

Thanks guys.

What's the actual number of winters for which the correlation holds, feb?

100%? Yeah, right.

Utterly irrelevant IMO - it's still only early October, for God's sake!

One of those might be the odds against Spurs beating Barca, tonight?