Methuselah

Just for interest's sake, is there any data out there that suggest a correlation between NH snow-/ice-cover, on November 30, and the subsequent winter? After all, snow that accumulates during October has a good while in which to disappear...

Do you always blame somebody else?

What 'bias' is that? The sort that enables me to both extract data from a graph and interpret the word 'currently'? currently ˈkʌrəntli/ adverb at the present time. "the EC is currently attempting greater economic integration"

You have the patience of a saint, Sam...Do you ever get the idea that you are deliberately being sidetracked, into discussing the polysemous nature of certain words?

It might be misleading to those who can't understand it, I suppose... Then again, you might be attempting to use an 'argument from incredulity'? Who knows, when folks start playing silly buggers with words?

It's like a Schwinn Cycle only better!?

IMO Fred, that's the fault of the media, who routinely distil/oversimplify complex phenomena into easily-misunderstood soundbites and/or lies. Then again, they do a similar thing with the so-called 'forecasts' provided by the likes of Madden & Corbyn, each spring and autumn; every year (as though they were saying something profound) they repeat the same old garbage under the same old hackneyed headline. I guess they think their readership has the attention-span of a goldfish...? They might well be right!

I must be psychic, Fred. I was sure I'd read that post yesterday...

Given the fact that some of the expectations, in here, are getting a tad extreme, is it really any surprise that some of the more ludicrous media 'forecasts' have cited NW as a source?

I think it was also at or around a time of very high sunspot activity?

I know that many folks want to see a repeat of 1963 asap (it might happen and it might not) but, who's to say that the meandering jet won't cause an increase in the frequency of long, hot summers, instead? IMO, the dice may well be not loaded in the same was as they were in the run-up to the last Grand Minimum...

Oh no...Not another 'pause'?

Another stonker: 21.4C and wall-to-wall sunshine.

Indeed. Science does that. So much so, that I'm starting to feel somewhat antediluvian!

Thanks for that, Jethro...If only Captain Bob were still here and posting; he was pretty hot on beryllium 10, if I recall?

That's what happens when a one-month model-based forecast is superposed onto a three-month probabilistic prediction - I think? But, with data being as limited as they currently are, I don't see any alternative... Until the Met Office et al. can place trillions of infinitely small measuring devices, one Plank Length apart, everywhere around the globe, probability will play a (albeit ever-decreasing) major part in our forecasts?

Was living in Highland Scotland (half-a-mile up the Glen from the Bearnock Tearoom) back then and, aye summer and autumn 1993 were both pretty dire. The only redeeming feature was being able to go sledging, in mid October!

You said it! PS: Just a quick suggestion: don't quote one post when you're referring to something else entirely...it makes no sense!

Where is GW mentioned in my post, Rambo? It's clearly mentioned in yours! Are you seeing things?

But what neither the Met Office nor other reputable forecasting agencies do, is fatuously claim to be in possession of occultist, magical, never-to-be-revealed knowledge that - in order to make themselves seem mysterious - must for ever be kept secret...IMO making claims to 'higher' knowledge is, and has always been, the hallmark of charlatans everywhere...

What are you on about: which cold month in, say, the last ten-years hasn't been a 'blip'? But - so what? - day-to-day weather, be it hot or cold, does not make for climate change. I'd like to know who says it does...

What a stonker of an afternoon: 18.8C, light SW breeze and wall-to-wall super-blue-sky sunshine!

If only there were some consistency shown in here, things would be much simpler to comprehend: Whenever the Met Office (or other professionals) make predictive howlers, said howlers are somehow (and God only knows how, exactly) denigrated by dint of the forecasters' assumed adherence to AGW theory; however, when equally patent blunders are made by CCDs, everything is said to be 'all going to plan'? IMO, this inconsistency is risible - a forecast is either accurate or it isn't - forecasters' respective views on climate change ought be neither here nor there...IMO.

The Met men were hardly the only 'experts' to make that claim, PSL?

Lots of knickers are getting wet in the Mad thread: it might snow, on the tops of Scotland's mountains, come late October!