Methuselah
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Posts posted by Methuselah
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Had a couple of very light sleety snow showers a wee while back...
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i am just north of Northampton in Kettering looks like will probaly miss out as normal.
had few snows shows since march 2013 had nothing settle amazing how many time it never reaches us in North Northants
I'm in the Triangle - need I say more!
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I forgot to say: today we had our first snow for 21 months!
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Not CO2 BFTV as that would certainly be magic...Jetstream IMO is affected by solar and planetary magnetic field influences.
BFTP
And, as yet undiscovered, and highly mysterious 'planetary magnetic field influences' aren't magic?
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Calm down dear! Think you need to re-read my post...
It rather seems as if quite a few of you need to calm down. So please keep things polite - and friendly! :smiliz64:
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4.6 please.
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Alas, the Triangle saw only sleet last night...
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nobody's doubting gordon manleys work probably knew more about the weather than everyone in the netweather community put together BUT i still believe if we had the same technology back then as we have now there wouldn't be as much emphasis put on global warming as there is just now
What an odd thing to say...why don't we still hast frost fairs on the Thames?
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I don't think I'll bother!
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So how about - anywhere between rather cold and rather mild, on any particular day? Average or what?
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On the flipside, NOAA and the NCDC do appear to have faith in it, spend time/money running and updating the model so if there was no value in it, you'd think they wouldn't bother?
I've no doubt that, over time, the CFS model will gain more and more credibility, as a long-range forecasting tool...No-one can expect new models to be as reliable as the older ones. I do think that the CFS is the way of the future. I'll not trust in it yet, though...
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Think I was spoiled as a kid in truth[...]
Me too; I was six in 1963...
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The CFS is actually pretty good at picking up long term signals/trends if used correctly, Obviously looking at every run and picking out detail its useless.
To be honest, PM, I've learned to pay it no attention at all...
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Yes Knocker, weak Nino....and no signs at all of the super nino touted....beautiful
BFTP
Touted by whom, Fred? That's the first I've heard of it...
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"The massive storm heading for Britain will bring blizzard conditions for most parts"
I bet it doesn't Piers.
I'm quite confident that Piers will claim success whatever the outcome...
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I feel your pain, BB. Even though the 18Z screams potential, it's never over until the fat lady sings. Indeed, should we see the required degree of burification and energy ejection (in the desired places, of course) we might even end up with a 1968 scenario. The rest, as the say, was history...
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I must agree with you guys: the future is so bright we'll all need to wear shades?
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All in all an enjoyable period of model watching, even if it isn't quite the 'perfect' HLB synoptics
S
Yes, Steve, I think you could well be right?? I do, however, think that when (if) it does happen, it'll initially take all the models by surprise...
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I'm saying the models are wrong in their longer outlook, i know they don't factor them in. The pattern I believe will become more amplified due to the solar and lunar effects on the jetstream.......and as if by magic the 06z rolls out.
BFTP
That's because they're, if not nonexistent, far too insignificant to be worth the bother...If they were of any use, then surely climate modellers would have latched onto then year ago???
Or is that a daft question?
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It would seem that I'm one of the few remaining great hairy-chested creatures of our age! Maybe most folk do sit somewhere on the so-called spectrum but for better or worse I'm 100% hetero, no ifs,buts or maybes. Where would natural selection/survival of the fittest etc come into it anyway? By definition a 'homesexual gene' cannot gain dominance, and a repressive one would see it eventually become extinct. Is it therefore implied that homosexual people are less likely to reproduce because of some simultaneous 'defect' that shouldn't be passed on?
Because any gene, whether dominant or recessive, can only ever be the subject of natural/sexual selection once it manifests...Let's face it, we still carry genes for umpteen lethal syndromes...
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Let's just hope you are right, Steve...
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Um,no, I really don't think so. The exact opposite in fact. Trust those pesky scientists, again.
I respectfully suggest that Lauren is right enough, LG...There is certainly a multitude of variations in human - and animal - sexuality. If there wasn't, natural selection would have nothing on which to act??
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Very strange those downward corrections (which puzzled me anyway) no longer seem to happen!
Could have done with it this month though
EDIT Thanks for that BFTV it looks like the various daily correction countered each other out!
Just as I start to take them into account...
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Well am sorry if I have upset anyone but I for one do not see the point in making any long term forcasts at all.I mean who exactly is going to take any notice of any forcast over that distance of time.Sure we can have some very intelligent people pour over sophisticated figures from a computer and I congratulate their dedication but no forcast is worth anything at all unless it has a reasonable chance of being something that is forcast.Do you think any local authority,government,utility company ,farmer or builders are going to read this and digest what it has to say...NO ,that is fact! That is why the met office no longer bothers either.
Because we learn from getting things wrong just as much, if not more, than from when we get them right. That's the way that science works. So long as we can admit to our fallibility, that is.
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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Clear and cold, now - 1.8C.