[Netweather Winter Forecast 2014/15 - A Cold Hearted Winter]

So unless a forecast is for an extreme then it is not worth writing?

 

No, we have to forecast what the pre winter conditions suggest and that is what we have done - I hope that your son has a few score hours (and then some) to spare!

 

And I would like to take this opportunity to say thanks for all the kind comments in this thread. It was hard work gathering all the evidence and working through it - Tony has an excel spread sheet that any banker would be proud of - but it was also a labour of love. 

 

The chionomaniac in me is hoping for that severe spell of cold weather - hillbilly - the temperatures overall suggest average because we expect any colder spells to be equalled out by the milder spells. Perhaps we didn't make that clear enough.

I don't think they really get it, chio...

 

This I know because when I make my annual criticisms of some of the more fanciful efforts - those based on lunar 'magnetism', the wanderings of Metabeelis 3 and the likes - some of them get really quite shirty...

 

There's science and there's bullocks? NW's LRF is science; whether or not it turns out to be accurate...

[Netweather Winter Forecast 2014/15 - A Cold Hearted Winter]

Yes it is a forcast....for an average winter ....my 10 year old could have written that!!  The fact is it is so average that nothing is off the beaten path...We shall see !!!

And the problem with that is...?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I'm watching developments over in Russia, the Baltics and Siberia; I think something may very well be brewing...

[December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)]

Foggy days permitting, I'll guess at 4.1C, please...

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Blimey! It looks like I might be lucky with the fog...

[Netweather Winter Forecast 2014/15 - A Cold Hearted Winter]

Well done, chaps. That'll be better than last year's fare...  

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

They certainly haven't when it comes to LRF, as the last few years have shown.  Other than that yes they are untouchable when it comes to the short to medium term.

That could well be down to the simple fact that no-one stands out on LRFs? But, this thread is for model talk. And, as far as I can tell, all is still up in the air?

[December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)]

I think I'll hold fire in the hope that, this time next week, there's a clearer indication of how things'll pan out. The now, it all looks as clear as mud!

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

What's acknowledging the fact the the world is getting warmer got to do with politics? The science is far more persuasive.

 

The Express, on the other hand? 

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Looks like Piers is expecting a 2010 scenario then, he never seems to get mentioned on here though why is that?

Could be because he's more often wrong than right?

[Do genes make you gay?]

By definition, 'gayness genes' are very unlikely to be passed on!!

Precisely!

[Do genes make you gay?]

Why would it need to be passed along the male line? Lesbianism does not preclude the equipment and the desire for motherhood.

My suspicion is that 'gayness' genes don't get passed on anyway...

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

 

Who knows what is coming.

Nobody does. Not man, not beast, not model??

[Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?]

The Vostok ice-core record shows a maximum temperature for Earth, indeed, everytime we've reached it, we've plummeted quickly into an ice age

 

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But, it doesn't show that that 'maximum' temperature cannot be exceeded - only that, so far, it hasn't been?

[Do genes make you gay?]

If it is genetic it may be carried through the maternal line but I would be more inclined to think it was a problem in the switch on of the 'male' hormone during early development of the foetus. Drugs aside, it is this type of event that has caused gender ambivalence in some athlete testing.

Does that imply that lesbianism might be passed along the male line? I'm being serious, not facetious...

[Do genes make you gay?]

Took me a while to get that...

[Do genes make you gay?]

It doesn't (except in cases of marriages of convenience)  'pass from generation to generation', Steve. How could it? So, as you suggest, the genetic mutation - minuscule, in the great scheme of things -  must be spontaneous...

[Do genes make you gay?]

It's hard to, despite the rantings of various puritanical right-wingers, that gayness can be attributed to anything other than genetics, knocker. Or am I mad?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I can't see quite how what folks have 'called for' makes an iota of difference: the weather will do what the weather will do; and our collective state of not-knowing is what makes it all such fun?

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

^^ And could a NE flow ensue? Of course it could. So let us all hope, eh? 

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

High SST's will generally mean more snow. If we get say -15c uppers going across the warm North Sea, then it would just be constant snow for hours and hours!! 

Got to say it, the models have definitely flipped over the last day and its looking much more promising again.

But what if, as is often the case, winds do not blow across the North Sea? I see nothing - as yet - to suggest an imminent Snowmageddon...

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

ECM 240!! The Great Winter of 2014/15 Begins.....

That's 10 days!

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

considering we had TWO frosts here last winter that would be welcome!

That many!   Not much cold, on the models...

[Early winter hopes and chat]

We have lots of pieces of the jigsaw puzzle; unfortunately, they're all either blue sky or blue water...  

[Early winter hopes and chat]

^^^last five...

 

All we can do is HOPE!!!!!