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Methuselah

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Posts posted by Methuselah

    Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    So your point is what?

     

    Just a simple question, really: if it wasn't there, what's the point of playing games, and pretending that there's paeleoclimatic evidence that somehow renders man-made CO2 irrelevant?

     

    Obfuscation gets tiresome, over time...

    Pete, i have to disagree.

     

    What did the new arrivals to Australia do there? What did we do to our Nation when we arrived here? What have we done to the mid-west? WE made difference alright! the die off from the black death/ meso American post contact die off to show us how much Carbon cycle peturbations we were capable of!?

    Technically, you're right...But said effect must have been trivial when compared to post recent industrial processes...if only in scale.

    • Like 1

    Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    But also evidence of natural cycles this is nothing new so why does everything have to be about CO2. The oceans have always warmed they have always cooled as part of these cycles they take up and give out CO2. I don't deny the planet over a give period has warmed but equally it has been warmer and it has been cooler.

     

    There are many things wrong with the arguments involved not least in how they are presented from both sides of the divide it just that at this time I think my thoughts that solar influences are the cause rather than CO2 carry better explanations for this hiatus and for potentially showing the links to past fluctuations.

     

    Both sides use links to websites that use rhetoric and language that adds nothing to the debate and as a consequence turns off the general reader who might come on here to learn which is a great shame.

     

    My day job is trying to get people and designers in particular to consider and articulate health and safety risk in construction. I am for ever trying to get only significant risks to be highlighted but more often than not these important facts are hidden in a wad of basic generic rubbish which only turns off those that need to be informed.

     

    If we forever quote and repeat generic rubbish it is inevitable the true gems will get missed or someone will think their bit of information is to left field and likely to recieve nothing but ridicule that it won't get passed on and this is how some of these climate threads behave which is detremental to discussion and debate

    Indeed, JB - anything prior to the Industrial Revolution was largely down to natural drivers...But, we know that already?

     

    Where has 'man-made' CO2 featured in the prehistorical record? Nowhere???

    Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    The missing heat is now in the deep altantic and southern oceans and as a result could lead to at least another 10 years of global warming hiatus!!

     

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6199/897

     

    A natural cycle controling earth's temprature who would have thought it!!!

    It's also further evidence - if any was really needed - of a warming planet. The oceans are, in fact, part of the planet's surface.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Because it's the Model Output Discussion, There is nothing wrong with describing what the latest GFS run is showing as per Frosty's post above describing the Gfs 06z op run, Which helps new-comers abbreviate what each run is showing, Those who make cross model interpretations would display numerous charts from across the Model suit, And would describe there reasoning's just like I'm Dreaming of.. for example. 

    Right answer! :good: 

    Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    That's the greenhouse effect as applied in general, but how does it disprove accelerated anthropogenic global warming?

     

    Bored now.

    Put simply: it doesn't!

    This assumes earth is a greenhouse which it is not. Most experiments demonstrating CO2's so called green house effect are carried out within glass jar's with air or concentrated CO2 show me an experiment that has air with a concentration of say 300ppm and then one with a concentration with say 400ppm and show me that we have the predicted temperature increase.

    Gore and the like use a jar full of CO2 and a Jar full of air hardly a true comparrision because if our atmosphere was CO2 we wouldn't be here. Equally it has more to do with the density of CO2 compared to air ( you could use argon and get the same if not slightly higher results than CO2) a Greenhouse/glass jar prevents natural mixing which our atmosphere allows so I'm sorry but I do not get CO2 being a green house gas. We don't live in a greenhouse we live on planet earth.

    Oh dear!

    Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Pardon me if I've got you wrong, but are you saying that you're using the albedo of the Moon's surface in calculations of the effects of solar heating on the Earth? Novel, given that over two-thirds of the Earth's surface is water.

    There's an elementary course available online. But, as with most such courses, it pays to stay until the end...The lunar surface is hardly relevant to the consideration of GHGs?

    Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Perhaps because the greenhouse effect theory is wrong. Perhaps the impact is so negligble that a massive increase has no effect. Perhaps we should go back to basics and reassess the theory. Perhaps a large element of the increase is driven by temperature and not the other way round. Just my humble opinion

    Then again, the entire edifice of quantum theory might also be 'wrong'?

    • Like 1

    Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by Mrs Trellis

    If you talk total TSI with a variance of 0.1% and equate that then you are wrong simply because the components that affect climate ie the F10 and EUV wavelengths can vary between 10 /30% or more between high and low cycles these are not small changes as you assert and therefore your statement is false.

     

    Equally I could argue that given that ozone production / reduction is greatly influenced by EUV that perhaps the greater portion of the ozone hole over the southern hemisphere and subsequent reduction was in fact down to solar influences and not man's but that would only set the hares running!!!

    You could 'argue' about a lot of things, JB; but, none of those will prove that CO2 has suddenly ceased being a GHG...We know it's a GHG; we know it's increasing, due to us. Ergo, we know it's warming the planet...

     

    What we don't know, is that all these 'as yet unquantified' solar effects do anything like what it says on the tin...Or anything like Monckton would have us believe...

    • Like 2

    Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    There is a lot of recent research on the solar impact on climate - past and present. I'll re-post this link in case you didn't see it earlier.

     

    http://chrono.qub.ac.uk/blaauw/cds.html

    Tbh, I think that the impact of solar cycles etc. is  forgone conclusion; one would have to be playing a strange game indeed, not to countenance it.

     

    Having said that, manmade CO2 is a wholly new phenomenon; it's nowhere to be found in the pre-human climatic record...So, I ask: What is the point - other than that of rhetoric - in attempting to use the aforementioned record in order to claim that manmade CO2 has no effect on climate?

     

    Is there, anywhere in the record, an increase in GHGs broadly in line with what's going on, today?

    • Like 3

    Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en

     

    There's definitely plenty of thunderstorms around Europe today, still had the window open and accidently clicked the tab to see many colours :D

     

    A quite similar look today with cumulus around, yesterday the cloud bases were high before the storm arrived, There's more cloud cover here today than there was yesterday though. Hopefully someone will see an organised storm, chase it, get a new experience and show us all how good it was  :clapping:

     

    Edit: Things firing already! Hopefully some will fire further inland though, they are currently tracking East towards the sea.

    Things definitely look rather threatening, G.

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