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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    ECM is in on the action. Huge cold pool covering Europe.
  2. Seasonality
    Here we go.
  3. Seasonality
    The GFS 12z is even an even better evolution than I've been hoping for. Good to see a chance for the UK to get in on the action. My way of thinking has been a return to cold in the second week of December and it looks to be heading that way. Already had a good taster here the last few days, - 17 this morning in my location and already down to -11 as I post this. Brief return to milder conditions then hopefully cold and snow to follow.
  4. Seasonality
    Cheeky little day 10.
  5. Seasonality
    -17°C this morning. Impressive for 1st of December.
  6. Seasonality
    I'm still of the opinion a pressure rise over the UK with euro troughing accompanying is the form horse in the medium term. UKMO supportive of this. As always should the evidence swing more convincingly against this I'll change my mind. Maintaining objectivity and overcoming your preferences and resulting confirmation bias is hard work but something we should all aspire to. Apologies for the tl;dr off topic stuff
  7. Seasonality
    @daz_4 Will be especially annoying after Saturday the 1st of December probably having a -double digit minimum for my location. That said I would say it will probably be even less than 10 days before we see a change to more trough based, and hopefully snowy conditions. I would guesstimate around 8/9th of December for changeover, so still outside of reliable output, but the hints are there.
  8. Seasonality
    Has been quite cold here for November but dry too. I feel your pain!
  9. Seasonality
    I'm still convinced the general direction of travel is towards colder conditions in the second week of December. Even if the exact destination isn't yet settled.
  10. Seasonality
    ECM seems to be buying into more euro troughing this morning compared to yesterday's 12z.
  11. Seasonality
    Not much in the way of snow, but lots of bright cold weather.
  12. Seasonality
    Agreed, not proper zonal at all on the 12z.
  13. Seasonality
    Mind you, the latest gfs op run gives us this for Central Europe around 7th/8th Dec. Nice bit of snow.
  14. Seasonality
    As already pointed out by @tight isobar the 06z para, the better verifying one, indicates more in the way of amplification moving forward. Check it out and cheer yourselves up a bit.
  15. Seasonality
    GFS is trending towards squeezing the mild snap for my location. Currently looking like only two days of mild weather then resumption of normal service. And hopefully snow for my daughter's birthday. All subject to change though this far out.
  16. Seasonality
    Question to all, is there anywhere where I could see the GFS Para/FV3 graphed alongside the current op and its suite? Would be interesting for comparative purposes.
  17. Seasonality
    And just as you say @carinthian the 06z shows this scenario!
  18. Seasonality
    Maybe we should 'pray' that our 'prey' gets caught next month?
  19. Seasonality
    The model rollercoaster is going full steam I see
  20. Seasonality
    Yes I'm pleased with thus run. More amplified and better snow options (for Central Europe anyway).
  21. Seasonality
    Happy with the bigger picture in the latter stages of the 00z ECM. A nice lowering of heights into Europe and a split and smashed up vortex.
  22. Seasonality
    Also worth noting that the UK, a little island bathed by the gulf stream and situated at the western fringe of Eurasia will almost never experience the same depth of and frequency of cold than the CONUS. I definitely see the point some are making about the UK's seeming run of bad luck though. That said, chalk and cheese spring to mind.
  23. Seasonality
    It's a new upgraded version of the GFS. It is already verifying better so I for one know which one I'll be using, and it goes live as the main operational soon anyway. More info here https://www.weather.gov/news/FV3 and here http://luckgrib.com/blog/2018/07/06/nextgen-gfs.html
  24. Seasonality
    Met office seem quite keen on colder conditions as we move through December. Would love to know what they can see.
  25. Seasonality
    I know! For Warsaw on the 1st of December the spread of 850hpa temps on the ensembles is from -15 to +6!
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