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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Thanks jethro, you've added a few angles I didn't consider.
  2. Seasonality
    Dan, I know that, it was a joke. A cheesy one I admit.
  3. Seasonality
    Well the base global temperature is higher so the temperature drop would lead to an end result that is higher than the LIA which had a lower starting point.
  4. Seasonality
    If it shifts further east does the 'correction' become a 'mistaken?'
  5. Seasonality
    Indeed. A known GFS bias. Cold blocks are often much more resilient in reality compared to the modelling.
  6. Seasonality
    The icon does just seem to toddle off on its merry way, only to rejoin the pack as the reliable time frame moves closer.
  7. Seasonality
    But any modern reoccurrence would be mitigated by climate change, so the temperatures presumably wouldn't drop as low. Plus now we have modern farming methods, global supply chains and governments that would act to address problems in a more effective and decisive manner than the during the LIA.
  8. Seasonality
    Deleted.
  9. Seasonality
    SCREAMS potential.
  10. Seasonality
    But the reality is it will bring cold conditions, regardless of the temperature 1500m up. Nobody was realistically predicting widespread, long lasting snow.
  11. Seasonality
    Are you a runner shaky? It was -16 when I set off for my 8k run in the forest on Saturday. Much warmer now. Here is the ECM from 192 onwards, but focussing on the relatively reliable out to 144 I think it looks good. UKMO on board at this range too is a real plus and should soothe some worries.
  12. Seasonality
    It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?
  13. Seasonality
    Cold creeping closer on 00z ECM and not being held at days 9 and 10
  14. Seasonality
    Well I'll give you a hint about my post. It starts with a j, ends with an e and has an ok in the middle. But I'm assuming you knew that and you're being ironic.
  15. Seasonality
    I bet there are some who'd still find something to moan about with this chart.
  16. Seasonality
    The Fv3/GFS para, the better verifying newer version of the GFS, showing a much nicer cold evolution than its older brother. Still FI I know but this may help to calm those who still panic at every (old) GFS op run.
  17. Seasonality
    The positive is that computing power and modelling algorithms have moved on a good way in the intervening years. So hopefully less chance of dangled carrots!
  18. Seasonality
    Check out the end of the 00z GFS para. UK almost completely covered in snow. Just for sh***s and giggles this far out of course.
  19. Seasonality
    Nice. A cold pool sourced from the Russian Arctic covering most of Europe.
  20. Seasonality
    00z GEM is a very good outcome. If I'm being Craig Revel Horwood and looking for something to critique I'd want the high to end up further north so more of the UK can get in on the action but still very decent.
  21. Seasonality
    I'm sorry to hear that Bobby. Hope it all works out for you and your family.
  22. Seasonality
    My apologies for any misunderstanding.
  23. Seasonality
    Agreed. There's no debate in it for me. The meto offer a fantastic service that has to be made easily understandable for the general public for whom a 40% chance of cold weather in 10 days time means nothing, for example.
  24. Seasonality
    Depends who you call a knowledgeable one on here! But all joking aside, imo never dismiss the Met Office, they're genuinely one of the best in the world.
  25. Seasonality
    Finally! A bit of snow falling tonight to add some more interest to this colder weather. The temperature has risen to -8 from -12 a couple of hours ago and the warmer air has brought some much needed precipitation, we need all we can get in Central Europe. Oddly enough, the 1st of December always seems to bring snow the last few years.
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