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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    The stratosphere experiences a fast/rapid increase in temperature. A sudden spike in temperature... See where the sudden fits in? Doesn't refer to the prediction but the rapidity.
  2. Seasonality
    Actually most of Europe is pretty seasonal on the 06z for Xmas, not just the med.
  3. Seasonality
    Yes, it ends pretty grim.
  4. Seasonality
    As the best Christmas film ever says. Yippee ki yay, m****r f****r!
  5. Seasonality
    UKMO 144h. As @tight isobarhas been hinting, the height rises are starting to get interesting in terms of cold potential. Now edging closer and closer! Not in far FI anymore.
  6. Seasonality
    Trust me. Tight Isobar is very knowledgeable and has a good sense of humour too.
  7. Seasonality
    I've learned to translate tight isobar. He is saying the op runs are now showing height rises in a number of areas (ie Northeast and Northwest) with low pressure phasing favorably and this gives plenty of options for incoming cold air. So more generally height rises either directly to Greenland or starting to the Northeast then retrogressing.
  8. Seasonality
    Maybe the OP forgot to say not good if you're a fan of flat zonal weather?
  9. Seasonality
    Hello hello hello. What have we here then?
  10. Seasonality
    Curiouser and curiouser.
  11. Seasonality
    Yesterday, @ArHu3kindly posted this, which shows temperature anomalies specifically following stratospheric displacements. I'd like to see similar regarding stratospheric splits as I expect this would yield different results. For Central Europe I see two colder, one average and 4 warmer but this is a rather small sample to be drawing solid conclusions from. figure-iv_12012018 (2).webp
  12. Seasonality
    If only it weren't deep FI of the General Fail System... Festive period looking, well, festive for my location. Would be nice to break a run of milder Christmases.
  13. Seasonality
    Spot the rather crucial difference in the incoming Atlantic.
  14. Seasonality
    No, it'll definitely break through. Just the timing and angle of attack to be finalised.
  15. Seasonality
    I would say UKMO is showing the block doing a good job of holding back the Atlantic. Notice the positioning of the Atlantic low pressure system compared especially to the GFS, close to diving into Europe under the block rather than just ploughing over the top.
  16. Seasonality
    The swings in output run to run are really quite amusing. The UKMO and ECM seem to have caught GFS-itis.
  17. Seasonality
    I don't know much about GP's balls, but he seems to have made a very good call. If only I could have one tenth of his knowledge. All balls aside the UKMO 144h chart is a cracker.
  18. Seasonality
    Say you're pleasantly surprised
  19. Seasonality
    Ha ha! Perfect, thanks for more laughs. You're really good at this in a strange way. I'll leave you to it mate, and everyone else will enjoy your posts for their pure entertainment value.
  20. Seasonality
    The kraken awakes. Matt is correct. No flat profile is evident. You're nothing if not predictable. Don't you get bored of doing this every winter? I tell you what go ahead and post a meaningless 384z gfs mean, I'll give you one for free. Thanks for a good laugh on a Sunday morning.
  21. Seasonality
    Oh no you don't! No aria for you just yet fat lady.
  22. Seasonality
    ECM going down same route as 00z UKMO but block even stronger
  23. Seasonality
    Happy Sunday everyone. Yesterday's 12z UKMO must have been a bit of an outlier. The block is back at strength on the 00z but the old GFS is a very different picture. GEM maintains the block more like the UKMO though. Still much to be resolved.
  24. Seasonality
    Nice segue @Paul and to build on that blog my advice to people is to treat December as a month in the astronomical sense in terms of seasons, that is that Winter doesn't start until the solstice. Treating the first two thirds of December as Autumn makes more sense and reduces unrealistic expectations imo.
  25. Seasonality
    Lol at everyone posting the same chart!
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