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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Yes, when the purple headed yogurt slinger is pulled the right way then it will spit cold at the UK. Nice 144 chart.
  2. Seasonality
    Just needs to be pulled the right way for long enough to spit some cold.
  3. Seasonality
    Ukmo.
  4. Seasonality
    Is 168 back? I thought the US govt shutdown had stopped it updating.
  5. Seasonality
    Yes a good one. Good cold air over Europe, vortex shifting nicely.
  6. Seasonality
    I think its that far FI on GFS is so far out it tends to show very varying solutions, so it does spit out quite a few extremes within that broad range. Check out a really spaghettified ensemble set and there is everything including the kitchen sink and a set of matching units and worktop.
  7. Seasonality
    Very much a split tropospheric vortex.
  8. Seasonality
    The vortex is not a happy bunny with that high pressure right over the pole!
  9. Seasonality
    @IDO are you ok? Has someone hacked your account? An FI cold ramp of the 06z GFS!!!??? For sake of fun I do like the 06z. After a brief milder blip the cold re-intensifies over Europe in FI. With plenty of snow to boot.
  10. Seasonality
    Sorry mate. Just teasing. The ECM at day 10 actually looks OK hemispherically. Vortex not a happy chappy.
  11. Seasonality
    So in other words you make up a definition to fit your statement Very 'alternative facts' Meant in the nicest way possible.
  12. Seasonality
    Mr Fawlty Vortex, he go crazy.
  13. Seasonality
    My thoughts are that some like to say "Oh it won't snow! Teh eksperts are rong and noe nuthing!", for the simple reason that it's playing the odds. Much of the UK tends towards mild, maritime weather so statements like above are right more often than not. There's no intelligence, insight or expertise applied though, just a sort of stopped clock type prediction success but 9 out of the 12 numbers are the same. There is though real expertise in accurately and scientifically forecasting deviations from the norm.
  14. Seasonality
    Snowing for the past couple of hours. A rare fail for the UKMO which didn't predict precipitation at all but accurate work by the Polish Met Office. I mean, knowing the size of Poland that's hardly a small chunk of precipitation as shown here on the radar. With live weather conditions.
  15. Seasonality
    The shifting of the polar vortex and the resulting deep troughing into Europe looks very tasty on this ECM run. A good example of where you don't need hlb for cold.
  16. Seasonality
    Ha, ha. Don't say that! The UK so often seems to have some anti cold sorcery so that it will 'avoid' beyond all odds. You'll jinx it
  17. Seasonality
    Welcome to the Central Europe club mate.
  18. Seasonality
    Lol, GFS. For my location UKMO says the temperature won't rise above 0 from now until end of its output. I know which I'd trust and that isn't just because it shows cold, even if it was the other way around I'd still trust Exeter's output.
  19. Seasonality
    Genuinely frustrating for UK weather fans currently. UKMO shows cold well entrenched into Central and South-East Europe and pushing into the med and as far as France at times. Meanwhile stubborn high pressure and warmer uppers continue to plague the UK apart from a brief toppling interlude. I still feel mid-month will be the time. Bucketing down with snow here at the moment. A couple of webcam shots to enjoy.
  20. Seasonality
    Winter taking itself more seriously this year. 10-15cm expected overnight and more in outlying areas. Won't be melting any time soon either.
  21. Seasonality
    Sounds good to me too, but just wait for the posts saying "O noe. It carnt be proper snow in Febrary coz the sun iz too strong. It haz to be Desember!! Zomg, winter iz over"
  22. Seasonality
    Has the govt shutdown in murka affected GFS FI?
  23. Seasonality
    Oh hi Northern Europe. My name is polar vortex, pleased to meet you.
  24. Seasonality
    I'm getting some very shortly, light snow this afternoon then turning heavier tomorrow morning.
  25. Seasonality
    Sadly you're right Nick, and the professionals like you get undeserved criticism for not predicting with 100% accuracy local scale conditions. It's a fundamental lack of understanding of forecasting in general.
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