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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Lol, couldn't make it up. Bitter uppers approach from the west.
  2. Seasonality
    Blech! Horrible 144h chart for the UK. Craig disapproves.
  3. Seasonality
    Charts like this first one are a real kick in the proverbials for UK cold fans. Gets better later in the run though. Real monster trough there.
  4. Seasonality
    Worth noting we haven't seen the ECM ensembles yet. Could be a mild outlier
  5. Seasonality
    What the hell ECM?
  6. Seasonality
    This 00z run is a work of art and a thing of perfection. Can it get any better than this. *Edit for my location to be accurate but great opportunities for the UK too.
  7. Seasonality
    Well Nick, with the UK's tendency to snatch mild defeat from the jaws of cold victory then I too advocate extreme caution!
  8. Seasonality
    Oh definitely Nick! Its all positive for UK cold that much is true.
  9. Seasonality
    At 144h the GFS and ECM solutions are rather different, and I know what I'd put my money on at that range. And although it has been done to death I'm convinced there is at least a grain of truth in the US shutdown affecting the accuracy of the GFS output. Very sad to see the full implementation of the FV3 has been delayed.
  10. Seasonality
    True, but a general observation, and certainly not a criticism of what you've said. It's great for UK based cold weather fans to see the cold air arriving full stop, I'm sure snow will follow (don't want to jinx it). Much easier for those of us based 1500km further east! The wait this year has been painful for UK cold lovers.
  11. Seasonality
    Sorry but I do think the GFS has 'gone off on one with that low pressure bomb shot all the way to the med. With ukmo for comparison. *Edit. I bet ECM will follow ukmo's lead
  12. Seasonality
    I know Tom. Geography is a real *****.
  13. Seasonality
    Interesting to see where this run falls. What I note is just how damn annoying it is for UK cold weather fans. So often it's the UK stuck in its own little mild sector compared to Europe at that latitude and sometimes even the neighbouring Atlantic.
  14. Seasonality
    Well that was a surprise. After a melt overnight there has been a very heavy little burst of snow this afternoon and we have a covering again. Variable week this week and then back to proper winter from Friday onwards.
  15. Seasonality
    ECM to the UK.
  16. Seasonality
    Please take some of ours, been pretty much every day for a week now. At least I'm not in the German or Austrian alps thankfully, tragic life threatening conditions there. But looking at this, some good chances for some nice, safe snow for the UK. Your turn
  17. Seasonality
    TBH Jethro I wouldn't bet on it. The low pressure system is moving into Europe and warmer air is approaching from the Atlantic. Sorry.
  18. Seasonality
    FV3 is effectively a different model though. So it's a bit apples and oranges in a way.
  19. Seasonality
    Daily Express headline to accompany this. ARMAGEDON HELL WINTER USHERS NEW ICE AGE. MILE THICK GLACIERS COVER THE NATION. -100 RECORDED IN CENTRAL LONDON
  20. Seasonality
    Looks excellent to me. I do worry a bit when I see charts like that for the UK. We have plenty of snow and sub zero temps where I am now but people are more used to it and there is more infrastructure to deal with it. Will be a bit chaotic if that comes off. But enjoy if it does. Meanwhile I'm happy with the way the current ECM is going. And a little something to whet your snow appetite too.
  21. Seasonality
    This looks like a decent match to me.
  22. Seasonality
    Hi IDO, I'm curious why you mention day 12 as being a crucial date for when model bias becomes apparent, I think it is often apparent much earlier. Penny for your thoughts on this.
  23. Seasonality
    Sorry, its silly FI so just for fun. But who needs high latitude blocking if you can achieve this.
  24. Seasonality
    Wanted to share this, thanks @Sweatyman for giving me the idea , but here is the site that generates those very useful ECM monthly forecast anomaly maps. All free too! Very interesting site with a lot of good info http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/
  25. Seasonality
    The glamorous life of a parent. I've been there too with the vomiting bug Jemma. Anyway here's a classic cold gif for everyone...
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