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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Don't be surprised an easterly is being hinted at by the meto. The ECM has been hinting at an easterly inflow of cold into Europe. As has GEM.
  2. Seasonality
    I got a decent dumping yesterday.
  3. Seasonality
    Thanks @Summer Sun, thats GFS output right?
  4. Seasonality
    GEM and ECM broadly similar for Christmas. Hoping they have it right because it looks like a white Christmas for my location.
  5. Seasonality
    Just a friendly reminder about not taking FI too seriously. In the space of 24 hrs ECM has gone from showing a maximum temperature of +7 on Xmas eve for my location to -5. You've got to laugh.
  6. Seasonality
    Hello! Look what's coming in the back door!
  7. Seasonality
    Ha ha. You beat me to it. Yes, those Iberian heights really need to do one.
  8. Seasonality
    Nice. ECM continues to shift towards a colder solution in six days time. Always better to see it grasp a signal and move towards it than flail about like a loose fire hose as it has recently.
  9. Seasonality
    ECM seems to be creeping back towards a more amplified solution. This sort of thing piques my interest more than a sudden swing.
  10. Seasonality
    Quite, and I like using the example of Sakhalin to contrast. Even narrower than the UK and on more southerly latitudes but with much colder winters due to being on the Eastern edge of the vast Eurasian land mass.
  11. Seasonality
    Yes, as a few have been pointing out the swings are notable run to run.
  12. Seasonality
    And the 6z is already off on a different path.
  13. Seasonality
    The ECM output for my location had been hilariously inconsistent run to run. Really wild swings. As @ArHu3has pointed out, the poor thing is rather confused at the moment. Nothing is decided yet.
  14. Seasonality
    Really? But then you wouldn't be able to reappear and post every time the output looks mild. I could set my watch by you. There is plenty of time left until Xmas which is still in FI. ECM has flip flopped over the past few days and not shown true consistency. UKMO still shows a less flat pattern, FV3 showing interest in FI, compared to the soon to be outdated gfs op run. So there we are, but you knew all of that already. I know your game.
  15. Seasonality
    I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that sort of emotion. That said, I always smile when I read your posts and I'm sure many others feel the same. All the best. It's always a pleasure having you around.
  16. Seasonality
    Yea, and the people did hearken unto the words spake by St Edward of East Anglia. For merrily he did forecast the second warming of the year of our Lord two thousand and eighteen which did maketh the fell winter cloak the land in rime and snowy white like the fleece of the lamb.
  17. Seasonality
    Indeed it is! Just look at this. GFS you naughty girl.
  18. Seasonality
    Met office used to be really good with predicting precipitation for Warsaw. But they haven't been great recently. For example it's been light snow and snizzle all day but Meto still adamantly showing dry. At least Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej have very good short range forecasting, plenty of live station data and a very nice radar page.
  19. Seasonality
    Wow, just wow. Pity its out at the very silly range.
  20. Seasonality
    Interesting changes over Greenland in this run compared to 00z.
  21. Seasonality
    The ECM is really flailing about in its later stages run to run. Seems to alternate cold to mild last few days.
  22. Seasonality
    Even better, those temps are a bit below average And I think the output is headed in the right direction for everyone to share in the fun.
  23. Seasonality
    They'll be positively... Baltic? Just for fun at this range but these are ECM surface temps for Warsaw based on the latest run.
  24. Seasonality
    @Bring Back1962-63. David, you are a gentleman and a scholar. Thank you. And from a purely IMBY POV I love this day 10 ECM chart.
  25. Seasonality
    I saw no glosea charts. Neither did anyone else. In fact, what is glosea? What is the met office for that matter?
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