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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Nice bit of cold air nudging the east of the UK. Good for the Kent and East Anglia crew.
  2. Seasonality
    Tonight's ECM
  3. Seasonality
    Exactly right @ArHu3 the Fax charts are created by the human experts who tweak the UKMO output based on their high level knowledge and experience.
  4. Seasonality
    Phew, you had me worried. I needed a stiff drink after reading that
  5. Seasonality
    Never wrong? Seriously? A NWP algorithm never wrong? I hope you're being ironic.
  6. Seasonality
    All in good fun.
  7. Seasonality
    Don't worry shaky, I think the 12zs will be OK. And don't let other folks' schadenfreude wind you up.
  8. Seasonality
    I like it how you deliberately included the odd misspelling the OP used in your response I thought I'd become accustomed to some of the appalling mangling of the English language here but 'soar' instead of 'sore' is a brand new and highly amusing example.
  9. Seasonality
  10. Seasonality
    Christmas Eve just came into view on the 00z. And very much for fun only, it would be ding dong merrily on high, and those dreaming of a white Christmas would just have to look out the window.
  11. Seasonality
    Been busy doing other stuff. Come back and check ECM and find this. Lovely run. The cold air just comes in and stays until day 10 for Central Europe.
  12. Seasonality
    Yes, tonight's ECM really will be one to watch. Stronger block and less punch to those atlantic weather weather bombs in the 12z output so far. It'll be interesting to see what the ECM makes of it. Arguably a model much less inclined towards progging oceanic dartboards.
  13. Seasonality
    UKMO isn't quite Mr Kipling yet but it is pretty good.
  14. Seasonality
    Me neither
  15. Seasonality
    So marginal to marginal then? Let's just call it marginal among friends
  16. Seasonality
    To be fair, I did go on to say use the the new GFS, aka the FV3, I just don't see any point using the old one anymore to be precise. You make some good points about using various models to take into account their biases and thats exactly why I said to use the UKMO, ECM and the FV3 (new GFS) in my original post.
  17. Seasonality
    Good news everyone! The output now shows cold zonal!
  18. Seasonality
    Parts of. In Warsaw it is mildish on Sunday Monday then trending to average and slightly below from Tuesday. Don't forget, it unusual for the warmer parts of Poland and most of Germany to have above freezing spells in December. Still early in the season.
  19. Seasonality
    Chilly rain, the worst weather for running imo. Keep the faith shaky and get out there and laugh in the face of the weather gods.
  20. Seasonality
    Agreed. If only it would verify as it sets us up very nicely for a white Christmas and we may avoid the dreaded mild spell that often happens that time of year in Central Europe. Very naughty of me to post 384h charts but doesn't get much better than this for festive cheer
  21. Seasonality
    Worrying about the old soon to be replaced GFS output is akin to complaining about how your old banger keeps breaking down when you have 2 or 3 new reliable cars sat in the garage. Treat the GFS as pure entertainment only, whether that be positive or a horror show. Save the real worry and analysis for UKMO, ECM and the FV3.
  22. Seasonality
    It will be a scandal for some if it doesn't come to fruition
  23. Seasonality
    Agreed. I suspect it will be deflected somewhat more than modelled.
  24. Seasonality
    Looking only to 144h, UKMO vs GFS vs ECM. UKMO I would say has the most northerly extension of the block and also an interesting placement of that little system north of the Azores. I would suggest there could still be something in this for the UK, too early to call it quits just yet, but yes, as that dreadfully overused netweather cliché says, it's squeaky bum time.
  25. Seasonality
    Why can't you just admit you got it/expressed it wrong? None of us are all knowing. Genuine bit of advice not a dig. I think this place would be much easier at times if we'd all openly admit our limitations and errors.
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